Brexit: 5 Questions on the D-Day Separation Process Between the United Kingdom and the European Union | World

After more than a year of negotiations on "divorce", both sides have reached a preliminary agreement in November, which was approved by the 27 Member States EU, but still needs to be approved by the UK Parliament.

But the agreement sparked intense debate in the United Kingdom. The day after the announcement of the settlement, a wave of layoffs occurred among May's ministers, who disagreed. Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab resigned, saying the agreement had "fatal flaws".

2. With regard to Brussels:

– The rights of citizens after the Brexit are some essential points: the idea is that the British living in the EU and the Europeans living in the United Kingdom can continue to to work and study in the countries where he resides, and can bring with him members of his family, although all the points of this question have not yet been decided.

– Transition Period : It will last 21 months after leaving the United Kingdom to give the two parties time to agree on bilateral trade. A future paper will describe relations between Britain and Europe.

– The "divorce account" : The United Kingdom will have to pay up to 39 billion pounds ($ 190 billion) as financial compensation to the European Union.

– Northern Ireland : the most sensitive part of the agreement. The fact is that the border between the Republic of Ireland (independent country and EU member) and Northern Ireland (part of the United Kingdom) will become, after Brexit, a border between the EU and the UK.

The United Kingdom and Ireland being part of a common market and a single customs unit, the movement of goods and people was free between the two countries – and at the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland.

But after Brexit, this will change as both parts of Ireland will be subject to different regulatory regimes, which means that goods and people will have to be controlled at the border.

The British government fears that currency controls will highlight old tensions between Ireland and Northern Ireland. The 1998 peace agreement, which ended three decades of bloody conflicts between nationalists (wanting to join Ireland) and unionists (wanting to stay in the UK) in Northern Ireland, envisioned the absence of physical barriers Ireland – who agreed in the agreement that the North is part of the UK until the local population decides otherwise.

Although London and Brussels agreed from the outset not to define a "hard" (or highly controlled) border in the Irish currency, the main obstacle was to define the terms.

To that end, it was agreed that there would be some sort of "shield" – a safety net, called a safety net – preventing a rigid border control at the border if a future trade agreement between EU and the UK was delayed being conceived.

It is expected that Northern Ireland will continue to align with certain customs rules of the European Union to stop having to carry out border checks with Ireland, but will require certain products from the rest of the United Kingdom to be subject to controls.

The backstop will also involve a temporary customs union which, in practice, will keep the EU and the UK in a common market – contrary to some of the basic principles of Brexit.

This has sparked criticism from a number of British politicians – some do not want to be subject to the EU's customs rules and others think the result could be the territorial break of the United Kingdom and the isolation of Northern Ireland.

Theresa May stated, however, that she had obtained new written badurances from the EU that the proposed emergency customs regime would be temporary and, if necessary, "as short as possible".

3.

Polling day will be the most important for Brexit since the 2016 plebiscite.

The BBC predicts May will suffer the greatest defeat of all British governments over the past hundred years

A lot of pressure will be made by May and his ministers until the last second to reduce the magnitude of defeat.

Labor parties and other opposition parties should vote against the agreement, while about 100 conservative parliamentarians and ten members of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) can also join them. The Parliament has 650 members.

4. What if the agreement is rejected?

If May can sew a majority to approve the deal, the EU-UK link ends on March 29th.

However, if most parliamentarians vote against the agreement, different scenarios can be realized.

Here are the most likely of them:

– The UK can leave the EU without signing an agreement with the bloc – This possibility is described by some badysts as an option extreme, because overnight. border controls, immigration and trade procedures will be eliminated without any idea or consensus on how they will stay.

– A major renegotiation can be launched – requiring time and effort to return to the table and convince the 27 Member States of the European Union. One option is to amend Article 50, a legal instrument that triggered the exit process from the EU and which had planned this exit on 29 March 2019, pushing back that date.

– General Elections May Be Called in the United Kingdom – Theresa May may end up deciding that the best way out of the stalemate is to call the British voters to the polls in order to To obtain a significant number of votes, the political force necessary to implement its agreement. The holding of general elections, however, depends on the support of two-thirds of Parliament. It would also be necessary to extend the exit period from the EU.

– If the proposed agreement is rejected, Labor members have already indicated that they would request a formal vote of mistrust towards the government. May could even ask for the vote itself (in this case, to try to reinforce her authority).