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Under the leadership of President Michel Temer, who leaves the country in a month, Brazil has once again discreetly participated in the G20 summit that brought together the last two days world leaders in Buenos Aires, the capital. Argentina. .
At the next meeting, to be held in Japan in June, the country will be represented by Jair Bolsonaro, who arrives on the outdoor stage with the legitimacy of the popular vote. For foreign badysts heard by BBC News Brazil, however, the president's strong defense of nationalism and his radical positions on some issues could hamper his ability to save Brazil's international prestige.
G20 leaders met this weekend in Argentina
Photo: Getty Images / BBC News Brazil
Although absent at the Buenos Aires summit, Bolsonaro has already attracted the attention of other leaders. French President Emmanuel Macron said that it was not in his country's interest to sign trade agreements with countries that were not part of the Paris Agreement (a compromise to reduce global warming).
For this reason, he stated that the continuity of negotiations between Mercosur and the European Union will depend on the position of Bolsonaro, which has already expressed its intention to follow the example of the United States and to let the climate deal.
"By the time Bolsonaro heads to his first G20 summit in Osaka, Japan, he may have already learned that his current climate change and gender equality policy would kill Brazilians. And the rest of the world soon after. "John Kirton, director of the G20 research group at the University of Toronto, Canada, told BBC News.
Bolsonaro will struggle to save Brazil's international prestige, badysts say
Photo: AFP / Getty / BBC News Brazil
Fear does not stay until the end, again
After having pbaded the lightning strike at the summit of the last year in Germany, the origin of corruption charges. Having threatened his term, Temer held only two bilateral meetings in Buenos Aires with the Australian and Singaporean prime ministers. As in 2017, he left the meeting before the conclusion of the last meeting of the leaders.
His counsel did not clarify the reason for the anticipated return. According to a diplomat from Itamaraty, the president "wanted to arrive earlier in Brazil" and would have a private agenda in São Paulo.
During his tenure of just over two and a half years, Temer had a lower international projection than his predecessors – Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2002), Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2010) and Dilma Rousseff (2011- 2016).
His last international engagement is expected to be the next Mercosur meeting in Montevideo (Uruguay) on 17 and 18 December. With that, he must complete his term without holding a single bilateral meeting with the leaders of the four major Western powers – the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany and France.
Temer left the meeting before the conclusion of the last meeting of the leaders
For foreign policy badysts, Brazil's loss of relevance and Temer's lesser protagonism can be explained by several factors, such as the controversy surrounding the legitimacy of the impeachment process, the denunciations of corruption, its high internal unpopularity and the economic crisis that continues since the Dilma government.
Add to these factors the fact that he is at the end of his tenure – his imminent loss of power makes him less attractive to other leaders who want to talk about the future with Temer. No G20 leader took advantage of his visit to Argentina to pay an official visit to Brazil before or after the summit. Chinese President Xi Jinping, for example, has chosen to extend his stay in Argentina and then travel to Panama.
In the badessment of the Brazilian Peter Hakim, emeritus chair of the think tank on the Inter-American Dialogue, the rise of Brazil internationally can be attributed to the governments of Fernado Henrique and Lula, "two of the presidents exceptionally strong, competent and highly respected around the world. "
The relevance of the country on the international scene, he adds, "fell hastily" from 2011, when Dilma Rousseff became president, and continued to be detrimental because of "incapacity" the country to face a long list of domestic problems ". like the economic crisis, social inequalities and corruption.
"In the past two years, governments around the world (including those in Latin America) have considered Brazil a country in economic difficulty, problematic, weakly governed and increasingly polarized, attached to uncertain way to democracy and the rule of law.It is no longer a country of importance and prestige, "he replied by email to BBC News Brazil.
Hakim believes that the restoration of Bolsonaro's international prestige "will not be an easy task". He notes that the elected president has chosen a qualified team to lead the economy, but stresses that the resumption of activity will also depend on the external scenario and the ability of the new government – still inexperienced in terms of management – to implement economic policies.
However, even though the new government is succeeding on the economic front, Brazil is wondering "it is entirely possible for Brazil to restore its regional and international relevance, led by a nationalist president of the country. far right, with extreme views most problems and a limited commitment to democratic principles, human rights or social progress. "
Approach with the United States
Statements by Bolsonaro, his sons, and members of the new government as future foreign affairs minister underscored an approach by the next government with Donald Trump's US government. One of the future president's sons, MP Eduardo Bolsonaro (PSL-SP), came to the United States last week and met with US officials. US National Security Advisor John Bolton, in turn, visited Rio de Janeiro to visit the president elected Thursday before his arrival at the G20.
Despite this, Peter Hakim sees obstacles to make this good understanding a practical advantage for both countries. One of the Trump Government's claims, which is waging a trade war against China, is that Brazil stands out from its Asian partner, who is now the largest buyer of Brazilian products. He also believes that it is difficult for Bolsonaro to find a regional solution to the Venezuelan crisis, because of the radical discourse of the Brazilian.
"Trump and Bolsonaro can develop a fabulous personal relationship, but I would be very surprised if the United States and Brazil appear as economic and diplomatic partners and productive security partners," he said.
"I do not think that the resemblance between the opinions and temperament of their two leaders provides a sufficient basis for countries to overcome their old differences (and their indifference), to break down historical barriers, and to acquire new ways of doing business. a strong and cooperative program, "he said.
For Professor of the Institute of International Relations of the USP Maria Antonieta Del Tedesco, Brazil is better able to project itself internationally when it seeks to strengthen global forums, rather than aligning with US policies.
"The new government's proposals do not promote multilateralism, I see the risk of a big setback in the process of internationalization, the strengthening of Brazil as an intermediate power, as a regional leader much more, the north, than other alliances already established, "he said.
BBC News Brazil – All rights reserved. Reproduction is prohibited without the written permission of BBC News Brazil
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