Central Government in May should be analyzed carefully, says the Treasury

Central Government: the result for the month of May was the primary deficit (iStock / Thinkstock)

Brasília – Secretary of the National Treasury Mansueto Almeida, made Thursday 28, a series of reserves in the badysis of the primary deficit of R $ 11,024 billion central government in May

The data was worse than the median estimates of diffusion projections, a deficit of R $ 9.9 billion, but the Treasury pointed out that the result was better than expected in the comparison with the median forecast of the Fiscal Prism, which indicated a pace of R $ 22 billion last month.

In the summary that accompanies the data, signed by Mansueto and his team, the Treasury stresses that the badysis of the figures must be made with caution since the planned expenditures with the diesel subsidy program do not have to be done. have not yet been included, and also because ministries are spending R $ 12.8 billion below the already released limit.

"A good part of the positive figure of the month is due to

Modification of the ceiling

The Secretary of the National Treasury said that it will not be possible for the next government to carry out a fiscal adjustment without the ceiling of expenditure or without tax increase

As to whether the candidates will change the rule of the ceiling when they are elected, Almeida joked: "I wanted to ask this question for everyone. "" If someone does not like the amendment of the ceiling, the fiscal adjustment will be much more gradual, we need to make a serious debate, we still have a very important fiscal hole. "

According to the secretary, the space for growth of expenditure allowed by the ceiling next year is in the range of 55 to 60 billion reais, but the increase in mandatory spending provided for in the budget should be 74 billion of reais. "The next government will have to reduce discretionary spending."

Almeida also said that the next revenue and expenditure report will incorporate the subsidy program created to finance the reduction in the price of diesel and therefore , the expected result for the year should be exactly the target, allowing a deficit of 159 billion reais. In the latest report, the projected deficit was 152 billion reais, but the space was occupied by diesel subsidies.

In addition, the next report, which is expected to be released July 22 in macroeconomic settings, according to Almeida, among them inflation and ultimately GDP growth .

Despite this, the secretary said that "for the moment" feels very calm about the achievement of the goal in 2018. "Our risk of not achieving the goal is very Very weak We have tools to reach this year's budget goal with certainty. "