China and commodities lead the rise in Brazilian exports

By Nielmar de Oliveira – Rapporteur Agência Brasil

Exports to China and commodities are mainly responsible for the US $ 58.7 billion surplus in foreign trade transactions. Although it is lower than that of 2017, when the surplus reached 67 billion US dollars, it was the second highest value of the Brazilian trade balance.

The data are part of the foreign trade indicator (Icomex). (FGV).

The FGV highlighted three findings that drew the most attention to the behavior of the trade balance in 2018: in addition to China's leadership and the growth of

According to the FGV, Brazilian exports accounted for the largest share of Brazilian exports, accounting for 26.8% of the total, which resulted in a difference of more than 10 percentage points compared to the second largest partner, the United States, responsible for 12% of sales in Brazil. the foreigner of Brazil. The third largest partner, Argentina, reduced its share of exports from 8.1% to 6.2% in 2018.

"China's share exceeds that of Brazil's main partners / country since 2014. It should be noted the increase in participation between 2017 and 2018, which went from 21.8% to 26.8%, which is explained by a growth of 35.2% attributable to Three main products exported to this country: soybeans, crude oil and iron ore, which together account for 82% of Brazil's exports to this Asian country, "the document says.

Oil, for its part, exceeded for the first time the share of iron ore in the sales abroad of Brazil to China. The importance of China for Brazilian exports is reaffirmed when we badyze the top 10 products exported by Brazil.

Thus, Brazil's second largest export is crude oil, and China's share of total exports has risen by 44%. From 2% to 57%, between 2017 and 2018. Exports of beef, the 8th largest product, accounted for 18.3% of China in 2017 and 27.2% in 2018.

Indices [19659002] Icomex data indicate that the agricultural sector was the main driver of the increase in volumes exported by the country in 2018, with a variation of 15.3%, followed by extraction (6.4%) and transformation (1.3%). %). However, excluding petroleum platforms, the variation decreased by 2.1%.

Expectations

By 2019, optimistic hopes are emerging as to the improvement of the Argentine economy, which could favor exports, contrary to what happened last year.

The study notes, however, that "the big unknown for 2019 is whether the government will implement a tariff reform to reduce tariffs and what will be the schedule."

In addition, announcements of new agreements and / or revisions to existing agreements within the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) as well as in the bilateral relations agenda (China and United States )

The study also highlights the fact that the trade war between the United States and China is continuing and that it is not certain that the latest trade relations continue.

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