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BRASÍLIA – (
In a statement, the Copom reiterated that the economic situation provided for a stimulating monetary policy, that is to say with interest rates below the interest rate.
The Council also pointed out that its basic scenario, remain favorable and unfavorable risk factors for inflation.On the one hand, the strong inactivity of the economy may lead to the risk of inflation. inflation on a trajectory below expectations Copom considers that this risk has increased
On the other hand, a frustration of expectations concerning the continuity of reforms and adjustments of the economy is a risk of negative inflation.
Inquiry The value with 33 economists shows that everyone is banking on maintaining the rate.
This is the last meeting of the Copom to the government Michel Temer The collegiate meets again on February 5 and 6, already under the Jair Bolsonaro government, but still in the current format and under the command of President Ilan Goldfajn. The economist Roberto Campos Neto, appointed by Bolsonaro as head of the Central Bank in his administration, will still have his name approved in the Senate in the next legislature.
The committee withdrew from its mandate.
The excluded section was as follows: the Copom repeats that the economic situation always prescribes stimulating monetary policy, that is to say with interest rates lower than the structural rate. This stimulus will begin to disappear gradually if the prospective scenario of inflation in the relevant horizon of monetary policy and / or its risk balance deteriorate.
Economics
The Copom said the indicators The recent economic activity "continues to show a gradual recovery of the Brazilian economy".
In the previous October release, the CB stressed that the pace of recovery was more gradual than expected early in the year. This time, he made no mention of growth forecasts for the beginning of the year.
The statement also states that "the external scenario remains difficult for emerging economies". In its badessment of the international scenario, it included an increase in risk aversion among the main external risks during the first half of the year. the normalization of interest rates in mature economies and the international trade war.
"The main risks are related to an increase in risk aversion on international markets, the normalization of interest rates in some advanced economies and the uncertainties of world trade"
Copom also slightly modified its description of the underlying inflation. Previously, he had said that they were at appropriate levels;
"The Committee considers that a number of measures of underlying inflation are at appropriate or acceptable levels, including the most sensitive elements of the economic cycle and monetary policy" , says the release.
Next Steps
In the statement, Copom stated that the decision to maintain interest rates was consistent with the convergence of inflation toward the target in the context of conduct of monetary policy, which includes calendar year 2019 and, to a lesser extent, 2020.
According to the Copom, the next steps of monetary policy will continue according to the evolution of the economy. economic activity, balance of risks as well as projections and forecasts of inflation
The council also recalled that the continuation of the process of reforms and adjustments of the economy is essential for the maintenance of low inflation, for the decline of interest rates
As provided in the minutes of the last meeting, the Copom withdrew from the statement the mention of the argument according to which there would be no mechanical relationship between recent shocks and monetary policy
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