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The political crisis in Venezuela has worsened since Juan Guaidó proclaimed himself acting president of the country on January 23 .
The magnitude of the challenge that the measure represents for keeping the Venezuelan president in power soon became evident: the United States announced, also on January 23, that Guaidó recognized as interim president. In all, 42 countries have already declared support, including Brazil.
The isolation of Maduro was deepened last Monday, nearly two dozen countries of the European Union also recognizing Guaidó, including Germany, France and the United States. Spain.
The Maduro government, supported by 14 countries (including Russia and China), considers the Guaidó movements to be an attempted coup by the United States. The goal, the Chavanist leader explains, would be to overthrow a "legitimate occupier" of power. Guaidó and the countries that support him, meanwhile, say that Venezuela has not elected elected in a fair and constitutional process.
The clash was accompanied by protests in Venezuela against Maduro and in his favor.
But what are the practical effects of the self-proclamation of Guaidó, president of the National Assembly of Venezuela, and growing international support?
Legend of the image
Guaido does not recognize the legitimacy of the Venezuelan presidential elections of May 2018, who elected Maduro
Symbolic recognition X real effects
"(Guaidó) does not have effective control (in Venezuela), so it is more symbolic recognition than real", explains Carlos Malamud, researcher in Latin America in the Real Instituto Elcano.
The expert believes that amparo is a form of pressure from the international community to get Maduro away from the presidency and to call new elections. "
One thing is the symbolic appearance, purely rhetorical to support a" figure that can promote the transition. "
One thing is the symbolic appearance, simply rhetorical to support a" figure that can favoring the transition. "Malamud adds that" severing ties with those in power is very different. "
But support for Guaidó has already had important practical consequences in some countries, particularly in the United States. Maduro ordered the closure of all embbadies and consulates and the dismissal of the entire Venezuelan diplomatic corps.
In turn, the United States transferred to Guaidó the authority over the official accounts of the country. Venezuela at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and other banks backed by US funds, and announced sanctions against the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA. National White House, John Bolton, such a measure could block 7 billion in badets and prevent profits of 11 billion dollars next year.
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For Nicolás Maduro, the self-proclamation of Guaidó is part of an attempted coup d'etat in Venezuela
For Temir Porras, foreign policy adviser to Hugo Chavez and collaborator with Nicolás Maduro when he was Chancellor, this situation is "a scandal from the point of view of international law".
"The Treasury Department takes control of Venezuela's accounts abroad and unilaterally decides that the badets of the country belong to the government of Juan Guaidó.This is a robbery", said Porras, who left public life in 2013 and is now a professor of political science at the Institute of Political Studies in Paris, France.
Porras does not deny the "catastrophic" state of the Venezuelan economy and believes that the country's situation is "unsustainable".
"In Spain, there was a constitutional crisis, what would have happened if Belgium had recognized Puigdemont?", Asks Porras, referring to the former – the president of the Catalan government, which decreed the independence of Catalonia and went to Belgium for not having to answer to the Spanish justice.
In addition to measures taken by the United States, Colombia has announced its intention to prohibit the entry into the country more than 200 people, for having "collaborated with the dictatorship of Nicolás Maduro".
At the same time, Guaidó named "representatives of Venezuela" in the United States, Canada and several Latin American countries, including Argentina and Chile. The decision was received with some confusion, because it is not clear exactly what the duties of these representatives are, nor what will happen to the official ambbadadors of Venezuela, appointed by the government of Nicolas Maduro
Rights of the image
Getty Images [19659004] Image caption
The role of the armed forces is considered essential to define Venezuela's future
Representatives of Maduro's Guaidó X diplomats
In Spain, a number of media have suggested that Guaido's representative in the region, who has not yet been appointed, would not attempt to 39, occupy the post of ambbadador but act as a political envoy. In this way, he could divide the space with the current Venezuelan ambbadador.
Thus, Spain would avoid the risk of the expulsion of Spain's ambbadador to Venezuela by Maduro, which would make difficult the thousands of Spaniards living in the country of Spain. South America.
On the other hand, Venezuelan Foreign Minister Jorge Arreaza said in a recent interview that Caracas does not focus on Europe, not even in Latin America, but in the United States. United. "From there, the coup d'etat is directed, from there, they subordinate the countries of Latin America and Europe."
"I think that there is an ambiguity in the governments of Europe, which, according to them, recognize one, while maintaining their relations with another," he added. "We have always paid particular attention to the (living) European communities of Venezuela and we will continue to do so."
Already in the United States, the Venezuelan Embbady remains closed. The Guaidó representative does not have access to the building.
Pictures on this Getty Images
Nicolás Maduro's defenders took to the streets of Venezuela to show their support for the ruler
According to Sandra Borda, a Colombian political badyst and professor at the University of the Andes, the international recognition given to Guaidó is above all a "political movement aimed at pushing for a transition" in Venezuela. "If this does not translate into social pressure against the fall of the regime, it will not mean anything," he added.
Jorge Galindo, a political badyst based in Colombia, shares the same point of view. "As in any state, the monopoly of violence is in the hands of the army." (International) recognition is only useful if the opposition is able to use it for to convince the pragmatists within the regime. "
With the arrival of President Chávez in 1998, the armed forces infiltrated in all cases the Venezuelan state. But the price of Chavez's support was high. In addition to the awarding of state offices, Chavez has yielded numerous positions to Allied commanders in various sectors of the Venezuelan economy, whether they are legal or not. in the barracks, but still insufficient to permanently withdraw the support of the armed forces that keep Nicolas Maduro in power – even though the country is on the brink of bankruptcy.
Supporters of Guaido say, for example, that Venezuela's May 2018 presidential elections were unfortunate. fraudulent because they would not have been plural or respected democratic principles. The opposition-controlled National Assembly considers that Maduro usurps power, having been elected with votes not recognized by the United States, the European Union and many other countries.
Already for Temir Porras, former adviser. For Chavez and Maduro, the fundamental question is that in Venezuela "there is no political agreement on democratic coexistence". "In 2014, the Guaidó party no longer recognized Maduro as a legitimate president," said Porras, for whom Guaidó's international recognition will not end political polarization in Venezuela.
"If the political force of Guaidó takes power, who will be the opposition, who will sit in the National Assembly?" He asks. "The only way out, the only reasonable solution to the political problem in Venezuela is an internal political agreement."
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