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For specialists, gas and gas prices are expected to fall and there is no risk that the government will lose control of inflation
Effect of the truckers' strike on prices is expected to dissipate this month
The effect of the truckers' strike on inflation is expected to begin to dissipate at the end of the month, with the reversal of rising prices for gasoline and gas cooking, for example, according to experts. Inflation, as measured by the expanded National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), rose 1.26%, the highest rate for the month since 1995, by 2.26%. The result exceeded the forecasts of financial institutions consulted by the Central Bank (BC), which forecast a change of 1.15%. In May, the effect of shortages caused by the truckers strike at the end of the month was added to the pressures on energy and fuel prices. As a result, the IPCA increased by 0.40%. In June, the acceleration occurred due to the intensification of the effects of the stop on the prices of food and fuel and the modification of the tariff flag.
Márcio Salvato, coordinator of the economics course of the Brazilian Institute of Capital Markets (Ibmec), explained that the "explosion" of inflation in May and June has occurred due to the increased demand for products like gasoline and cooking gas. "There was too much demand because people wanted to store, products like gasoline and cooking gas increased, and this had the effect of changing the structure of transportation costs." [19659007ForSalvatoinflationcouldevenbelowerthanforecastwithgasolineandgaspricesreturningtonormal"Thereshouldbelowerpricesforproductsthathavehadadirecteffect"hesaidHepointedoutthatthereisnoriskoflosingcontrolofinflationbecauseoftheeffectsofthetruckersstrike
Inflation
According to the Inflation Report, published in June by the BC, from this month, despite the delayed effects of the rise in the dollar observed since the end of April and the expected increase in air fares in July, lower inflation rates are expected. This is expected to occur due to the reversal of the effects of the shortage caused by the truckers' strike, the favorable seasonality of food prices and the large idleness of the economy.
The recovery of activity at a more gradual pace than expected
For this month, the forecasts of financial institutions consulted by the Central Bank are that the IPCA is at 0.35%, and fell to 0.12% in August.
"We hope that by July this effect will begin to dilute.We had this pressure now in June, but in July it should decline," said Marcio Milan economist of Tendência Consultoria.
Because it is considered a climax, the economist recalls that the risk of non-compliance with the goal of inflation is zero. The target is 4.5%, with a margin of tolerance of 1.5 percentage points up or down. "Even with other events such as exchange fees and administrative fees, the risk is zero, the projections continue below the center." Our projection is that the IPCA will be 3.7% this year. year, "said Milan.
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