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But what Brazil can win or lose with the intention of Bolsonaro in the footsteps of Trump and the transfer of the Brazilian Embbady from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem In the economy, what sectors of production can be harmed or gain space? And what changes for Brazil as an actor on the international scene?
The BBC Brazil radiographed Brazilian foreign trade with Israel and Muslim-majority countries. In economic terms, the weight of transactions with Arab countries is much more important than trade with Israel.
For some sectors, such as d, and the production of sugar, beef, chicken and maize, trade with Islamic countries is crucial, and it is to be feared that Brazil's rapprochement with Israel will lead to retaliation from the Arab world.
On the other hand, Israel is a technological and political center of the country.Brazil could potentially take advantage of partnerships envisaging the transfer of scientific knowledge The Brazilian government is targeting the irrigation of the agricultural sector, the desalination of water in drought zones and cybersecurity to fight against organized crime.
But the diplomatic shift of the Bolsonaro presidency does not only affect the economy, it also affects how Brazil is viewed internationally. and, therefore, on the political alliances it can create with international organizations such as the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the United Nations. "In all multilateral forums, whenever Brazil has to form a majority, be it in the WTO or the WTO," he said.
At the United Nations, it negotiates this majority with the Latin American countries, which have 30 votes, with Africa, 50 votes and with the countries of the Middle East, which count dozens and dozens of voices, "says Foreign Getúlio Vargas Matias Spektor, a researcher at the Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington, DC, USA, and at the University of Oxford in the United Kingdom
" The Strong Rapprochement with Israel has an economic impact, but also political
The Arab countries and Iran account for nearly 6% of Brazilian exports and about 10% of exports.
What is the weight of Brazilian trade between Israel and the Arab countries? Brazil's agricultural sector.
In 2018, trade between Brazil and Islamic majority countries rose to 22.9 billion US dollars, according to data from the Ministry of Industry and Foreign Trade (MDIC). The balance is favorable to Brazil with 8.8 billion US dollars.
But it is by looking at specific sectors, especially agriculture and livestock, that the weight of commercial relations with Muslim countries becomes clearer: they receive about 70% of all Brazilian sugar exports ( accounting for 46% of maize grain, 37% of chicken meat and 27% of beef, according to data compiled by BBC News Brazil with the MDIC
Since Bolsonaro announced that it would follow in Trump's footsteps and transfer the Brazilian Embbady from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, Arab countries have gone to show signs that they will exercise trade retaliation against Brazil.
Indeed, the occupation of Jerusalem is one of the most sensitive points of the Arab-Israeli conflict. The territory is considered sacred to the Jewish and Islamic religions.
Israel regards Jerusalem as its eternal and indivisible capital. But Palestinians claim part of the city (East Jerusalem) as the capital of their future state. Most members of the international community, including the European Union and the United Nations, believe that the status of Jerusalem must be settled in peace negotiations.
Marcos Jank, representing chicken and sugar exporting sectors in Asia, told BBC News Brazil that, following the announcement of Bolsonaro, he had received ""
"We are very dependent on exports to Developing countries. "In 2000, the United States and the United States of America imported goods from Muslim-majority countries, such as Malaysia and Indonesia, as well as warnings from embbadies of the United States. Brazil in the Middle East regarding a possible reduction in imports of Brazilian products. Brazil's exports to Europe and the United States now account for 60% of total exports to Europe and the United States, 70% of which to developing countries and the most dynamic regions. Asia and the Middle East, "he says,
I am in Singapore and have received direct messages (of potential reprisals), by e-mail and telephone, as well as as the reactions of the embbadies. "
According to the president of the Foreign Trade Association. José Augusto de Castro (AEB), the productive sector that would be most affected by any retaliation would be chicken, followed by meat and sugar.
badysts, despite the risk of economic losses, especially in the agricultural sector, the approach to Israel may also offer opportunities.
Even joining Trump in recognizing Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, the Brazilian government shows signs of rapprochement with the United States, according to experts heard by the (19659004) "The reason for this change (in relation to Israel) relates to the intention of the Bolsonaro government to realign the policy Brazilian foreigner. in the sense of creating a rapprochement with US President Donald Trump. Matias Spektor, professor of international relations at the FGV, sees both costs and costs, but also benefits.
"The government is waiting for Trump to make concessions in Brazil, notably for market access." US investment in Brazil, exchange in the field of security, sale of arms in Brazil, cooperation in the field of cybersecurity and border control. "
The main expectation for Israel concerns the transfer of technology." Brazil can import educational systems and technologies in the fields of medicine, telecommunications and computer, and also establish partnerships for research on Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease and cancer, which are important areas of Israel. "Trade and Industry, Jayme Bray
But the President of the Brazilian Association of Foreign Trade (AEB), José Augusto de Cas (19659004) "Traditionally, Brazil has never been politically involved [dans le conflit arabe] and in the Arab world, Israel) at the point of economic impact. Trade with the Arabs in the field of commodities is very important and Brazil should not create bases allowing Arab countries to stop buying from tomorrow. "
Cooperation against Crime x Extremist Threats
An approach with Israel including the transfer of the Brazilian embbady to Jerusalem also appears to be a" double-edged sword "in the security zone. On the one hand, the government expects Israeli technology transfer in the field of defense and, particularly in the field of cybersecurity.
On the other hand, it is at fear that Brazil will become the target of radical Islamist groups, if they take the side of Israel in the conflict with Palestine.
"Brazil could give this diplomatic turn, one of the warnings came of the United Nations Mission in Lebanon, of which Brazil is a part. Mission members said that one of the risks that Brazil faces (transfer of the embbady in Jerusalem) is that it attacks Brazilian soldiers or embbadies of Brazil in this region of the country. world ", says Matias Spektor of the FGV
the partnership with Israel seems to address the concerns of internal security.The use, for example, of Israeli data and satellite images could help fight organized crime – one of the priorities of the current Minister of Justice, Sérgio Moro
to the Olympiad The Israeli satellite Eros-B, capable of displaying objects located less than 70 centimeters from the surface , has been used to improve security Command and Control, used to share intelligence information between federal agencies and states during the Games
"The government wants to expand its cooperation with Israel, especially in the field of science and technology, with a focus on Cybersecurity. "
Jayme Blay confirms that the new relations between Brazil and Israel should give priority to the cybersecurity sector." Security An umbilical element related to Israeli national life has always been essential, and cybernetics is the key to the survival of Israel, so it was necessary to invest heavily in technology in this sector. "
Political support in international organizations ionales
the Bolsonaro government confirms the strong diplomatic reversal of its relations with Israel and the Middle East, but there will probably be changes in the failure of international organizations such as the 39, UN and the WTO.
In recent years, Brazil has aligned itself with the countries of Latin America. Africans and Arabs on multilateral elections, and can now lose a few dozen votes, for example in commercial disputes
"There is a risk of isolation of Brazil , to the extent that the international community understands today that the worst way to settle the Arab-Israeli conflict is to give an absolute reason on one side to the detriment of the other, "said Matias Spektor.
However, Brazil could try to get closer to the United States to complete the process of joining the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), a group
"Between Losses and Earnings, badysts say two crucial elements have allowed Brazil to maintain good relations so far. "
"This is a process that depends heavily on the close support of Americans." with Israel and the Arab countries: reputation and trust. "The reputation of a country is comparable to that of people, its construction takes a lot of time and it is very easily destroyed," said the professor. FGV International Relations
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