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Newly discovered evidence that the probability of a person's death ceases to increase at the age of 105, after being a statistical error, wrote an Australian biomathematician in the review PLoS Biology.
registered by semi-literate people, only a third of them knowing how to read and write, having on average only one year of school, they had to err a thousand times less often than doctors in clinical trials, which is unlikely "
For many living things, there is a maximum age, determined by the so-called Gompertz-Makeham Law, that most animals die of old age , reaching a certain age, and the others are likely to die next year and start to increase exponentially.
is actively used if this is applicable to the man. In 2016, American researchers discovered that such a maximum age was perhaps 100-115 years, which is quite modest by the standards of some biblical characters.
California scientists then badyzed the frequency of human mortality, most women elderly living in Italy, and found that their probability of dying increases after the 105th year of their lives.
Saul Newman questioned such conclusions, bearing in mind that most of today's macrobes were born at a time when most people could not read or write. He studied how various errors and failures in writing could influence scientific conclusions.
The researcher simulated various errors, changing birth dates, increasing the age of 5 or 10 years, and checking their influence on statistics. Newman's calculations showed that the probability of death of the elderly not only remained the same, but even decreased. Scientist Kenneth Wachter of the University of California, one of the authors of this study, disagrees with the findings of the Australian scientist. Wachter pointed out that "Newman did not even attempt to badyze the data we obtained, he only created" a hypothetical scenario "known to all for over a thousand years and described in our study".
According to Wachter, the statistics on which the Australian mathematician writes are not small but enormous and do not take into account the fact that in 1860 there was already a system of strict control of demographic data in Italy. Therefore, his team does not intend to reject his conclusions.
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