Foreigners left the stock market in 2018 for the first time in 7 years | Economy

Thus, the positive tone of the stock market last year was the local investors. The cumulative peak of more than 15% of Ibovespa, which exceeded 90,000 points for the first time, comes mainly from shares bought by investment funds, explains the economist. and investment manager Marcelo from Agosto.

Source: B3

"The funds increased their position in variable income, especially because they ended up with few investment options in a context of falling interest rates" explains D'Agosto. "He ends up feeding the bag."

Called institutional investors, the funds will invest resources in the stock market on behalf of third parties, whether it is individuals or companies. These are, for example, pension funds or insurers.

While the share of foreigners in B3 fell to 46.5%, its lowest level since 2013, institutional investors increased the share of the pie to 30.6%. The small investor kept his place on the turnover ( see chart ).

The global worsening of foreign capital

The global worsening of foreign capital

Percentage, year to year (2019, up to the end of January 17)

explains the exit of foreigners at a positive moment on the Brazilian stock market. "Their expectation vis-à-vis emerging countries is not positive at the moment," says Agosto.

The external scenario of 2018 was marked by increasing trade tensions between China and the United States, as well as the fear of a slowdown in the global economy. In addition, the gradual rise in interest rates in the United States led to an outflow of resources from emerging countries.

Another explanation for the mbadive withdrawal of foreigners was the realization of profits at B3 (selling badets at a price higher than the purchase price).

"The stranger spent a lot of time picking up the bag, and when he began to improve, it was time to sell," says economist and professor at the Institute Foundation Administration of the University of São Paulo (FIA-USP).

Contrary to the market, Ibovespa recorded a remarkable performance of the main world stock indexes in 2018, which closed down.

Local investors relegated to the background external tensions and bet on the improvement of the Brazilian economy and the approval of reforms, even after the strike of the truck drivers, the lorries. electoral uncertainty has shaken confidence in growth.

Ibovespa en 2018

Closing score

Source: B3

Accumulated B3 data from 2019 to 17 January indicate a positive external resource flow of R $ 316 million.

But it is too early to know whether the year will be conducive to the mobilization of foreign capital in the stock market, because the market environment is not the best in the global scenario. "Everything will depend on what the economic team will announce and following the reforms," ​​Cabral said.

For the moment, the economist adds that it is not possible to make very accurate forecasts. "In just over 20 days of government, we have no concrete information on what will be done in the economy."