[ad_1]
SÃO PAULO – On a more favorable day in the foreign market, the Quarterly Inflation Report (RTI) was aligned with the minutes of the Policy Committee meeting. monetary (Copom) in support of the Selic thesis will remain stable at 6.5% per annum, which will allow IDs to drop to B3 on Thursday (28).
According to the constant interest rate and exchange rate scenario, the projection of the IPCA for this year went from 3.6% in the March RTI to 4.2% in the reading current, while that of 2019 ranged from 4.0% to 4.1%. Under the exchange rate and market interest rate scenario, the projections increased from 3.8% to 4.2% and from 4.1% to 3.7%, respectively, for both periods. .
"British Columbia has once again stated that the current situation requires a stimulative monetary policy, that is with an interest rate below the structural rate," said Mr. Bradesco in a report. In evaluating the economist team of the bank, the Copom should keep the Selic stable at future meetings, unless there is a shift in the balance of risks and that the shock spread However, the exchange rate for the dollar is at R $ 3.70, below the current level of R $ 3.85. This is not a concern of economists right now, but remains an important point to watch out for. According to Alessandra Ribeiro, director of macroeconomics and politics at Tendência Consultoria, the current level of the dollar does not yet compromise British Columbia's badysis, as it remains very volatile. For her, a more stressed scenario, for example, of 3.90 reais stabilizes to alter inflation projections.
The report also has a more "quiet" sign of dynamics. prices, according to the fixed income trader in Quantitas, Matheus Gallina. "With regard to the possible impact of the exchange rate on inflation, it's a speech that has downplayed the effect of the transfer," he says. According to him, monetary policy instruments will not be used to contain the nervousness of the exchange.
"In general, the signs of the RTI do not present any major concerns about the dynamics of inflation," he says. . One of the highlights, according to the Quantitas expert, is a study that shows the effect of exchange rate variation on some elements of inflation, such as food and consumption. Services. "The sensitivity of the service is small, which has even gained prominence in the presentation (from Carlos Viana, director of British Columbia)."
Dollar
DI contracts also followed the movement of the dollar, which closed at R $ 3.8577, down 0.43%. The real follows the adjustment also observed in other emerging currencies – Russian ruble, Mexican peso, South African rand, Turkish lira – after the exacerbated movement found Wednesday (27) in exchange. Contributing to the appreciation of emerging currencies is the spread of US GDP. The indicator has been revised down from 2.2% in previous reading to 2.0%. "These data provide relief to emerging currencies devalued by the concern of a very bustling US economy, which could lead the Federal Reserve, the Fed," the data suggest a moderate growth rate, "says Luciano Rostagno, strategist in chief at Banco Mizuho do Brasil
Political Scenario
The tranquility of investors with an eye on monetary policy gives way to a less tense badessment of the political landscape.It was published this morning the 39 CNI / Ibope survey, without showing any strengthening of the leftist candidates and bring relief to the badets.In the simulation of Ibope without the former President Lula, the highlight is with Marina Silva. The former minister attains 13%, which places it, on the margin of error, in a situation of technical link with Bolsonaro, which holds 17%. it is technically possible to Marina (19659002) At 16h, at the end of the regular trading session, DI January / 2020 closed at 8.33% (against 8.55% at the previous adjustment), DI January / 2021 recorded a rate of 9.33% (9.55% in the previous adjustment) and the DI January / 2025 11.59% market (11.78% in the previous setting) 19659002] * ( Contribution of Lucas Hirata )
[ad_2]
Source link
