Germany, Migrants and Merkel: The Reasons for the Political Crisis

most of the government collapse with the release of the CSU, Merkel could try a minority government or form a majority with other partners, or opt for early elections (Michele Tantussi / Reuters)

Tensions in Germany related to migration caused a serious political crisis, almost three years after Angela Merkel's decision to receive thousands of asylum seekers.

What are the Reasons for the Conflict?

The confrontation began in the middle The Minister of Justice Interior, Horst Seehofer, q He also chairs the party of the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU) and has seen Chancellor Angela Merkel block her plan to toughen asylum policy.

The Chancellor openly rejects the main measure that of her minister: the expulsion of German borders from any migrant registered in advance by another country of the European Union.

This conflict quickly became a crucial issue that threatens the coalition formed with great difficulty in March of this year and which the right wing of the CSU, the Chancellor's Right Wing (CDU) and the United States. Social Democrats

How did things get worse?

The Minister did not want to surrender to his boss and even challenged him, give an ultimatum to the Chancellor: the imposition of his measures at the border by ministerial decree in early July, to unless very restrictive and equivalent measures are taken at European level.

In turn, the Chancellor continues to oppose any form of unilateral expulsion to the borders of his country, fearing a "domino effect" across Europe that would threaten freedom of movement in force.

Merkel also negotiated last week a European political agreement and bilateral agreements, the effect of which is "more than the equivalent" of the measures that Seehofer wants.

On Sunday, the minister rejected the results of these meetings with the other European bloc countries and put the German government on the table.

Migrants are the only reason for the conflict?

The conflict is much deeper. The Bavarian Conservatives and even some of Merkel's own party leaders seem to be adjusting their political accounts to the Chancellor. In fact, Seehofer and his party have stopped denouncing Merkel's decision to open the country's doors to hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers in 2015.

In addition to the Migration issue, CSU has long considered Merkel 13 years in power, moved the conservative wing to the center.

In turn, the German left sees the struggle within the conservative party as "a right-wing coup". Several German media also see in this conflict a German version of "trumpism" (of US President Donald Trump) because the CSU, which defends a "German premiere" on migrants, is encouraged by the proximity of regional elections in Bavaria [19659009] In this region, research indicates that UHC could lose its absolute majority due to the advance of the far-right thanks to its anti-immigrant rhetoric.

In the end, the issue of evictions at the border is largely symbolic. Migrant arrivals are in free fall. In Europe in general and in Germany in particular, reception policies have hardened and the fight against illegal immigration has been reinforced

What are the possible scenarios?

Seehofer proposed his resignation Sunday evening, but suspended

The Interior Minister described three scenarios: she could join the ranks, or override Merkel's objections and impose expulsions at the borders, which would lead to a final negotiating session with Merkel on Monday afternoon. on his resignation and a possible dissolution of the coalition government. The third possible option would be a waiver. He mentioned that within a period of "three days" he will announce his decision.

In turn, the Chancellor can not yield to Seehofer, otherwise it will be the Social Democrats who will attack the government.