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Tensions related to migration in Germany caused a serious political crisis, almost three years after Angela Merkel's decision to receive thousands of asylum seekers. The confrontation began in mid-June, when Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, who also chairs the party of the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), said: "This n & # 39; Is not an issue at stake. "
Chancellor Angela Merkel has blocked her plan to toughen asylum policy
The Chancellor openly rejects the measure of her prime minister: the expulsion of German borders from any registered migrant to the country. 39, advance by another country of the European Union. The conflict quickly became a crucial issue that threatens the coalition formed with great difficulty in March of this year and which united the right wing of the CSU, the Chancellor's Right Wing (CDU) and the Social -démocrates.
The Minister did not want to surrender to his boss and came to challenge him, giving an ultimatum to the Chancellor: the imposition of his measures at the border by ministerial decree in early July, unless
In turn, the Chancellor continues to oppose any form of unilateral expulsion at the borders of her country, fearing a "domino effect" throughout Europe that would threaten [19659002] Merkel also negotiated last week a European political agreement and bilateral agreements, the effect of which is "more than the equivalent" of the measures that Seehofer wants.
On Sunday, the minister rejected the results of these meetings with other European bloc countries and put the fate of the German government on the table.
Migrants are the only reason for the conflict?
The conflict is much deeper. The Bavarian Conservatives and even some of Merkel's own party leaders seem to be adjusting their political accounts to the Chancellor. In fact, Seehofer and his party have stopped denouncing Merkel's decision to open the country's doors in 2015 to hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers.
In addition to the issue of migration, CSU has long considered Merkel 13 years in power, moved the conservative wing to the center.
In turn, the German left sees the fight within the conservative party as "a right-wing coup". Several German media also see in this conflict a German version of "trumpism" (of US President Donald Trump) because the CSU, which defends a "German premiere" on migrants, is encouraged by the proximity of regional elections in Bavaria [19659002] In this region, research indicates that UHC could lose its absolute majority as a result of the far-right advance thanks to its anti-immigrant rhetoric.
Finally, the question of the implementation of expulsions at the border is largely symbolic. Migrant arrivals are in free fall. In Europe in general and in Germany in particular, reception policies have been tightened and the fight against illegal immigration strengthened
What are the possible scenarios?
Seehofer proposed his resignation Sunday evening, but suspended decision to allow a final negotiating session with Merkel Monday afternoon
The Interior Minister has described three scenarios: she could join the ranks, or override Merkel's objections and impose expulsions at the borders, resulting in his resignation and possible dissolution of the coalition government. The third possible option would be a waiver.
In turn, the Chancellor can not yield to Seehofer, otherwise it will be the Social Democrats who will attack the government.
If the majority of the government could collapse with the release of CSU, Merkel could try a minority government or form a majority with other partners, or opt for early elections
Nor is there any exclusion of the Chancellor's power.
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