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So Paulo, 08 – Consumption, which surprised last year to pull the country's growth and was considered the driving force of the recovery in 2018, has lost its breath. Unemployment, still high, had held household spending, but the truckers' strike had worsened the scenario, undermining the confidence of businessmen and consumers. They reduced their willingness to go shopping and make financing. In stores, the number of failed goods has increased.
In recent weeks, economists have reduced their forecasts of consumption growth in 2018. In the June report, the Central Bank reduced from 3% to 2.1% for family spending in the United States. # 39; year. The Institute for Applied Economic Research (Ipea) also revised the forecast: from 3.4% to 2.3%. The MB Associados consultant reduced the growth expectations for consumption from 3.5% to 2.6%. The same reduction was made by GO Associados
Only, household consumption accounts for more than half of gross domestic product (GDP) and its weakening can jeopardize the economic recovery. "The domestic market has the heaviest weight on the recovery and, in fact, there are greater expectations about it," said MB Associates' chief economist, Sergio Vale. According to Nicola Tingas, economic adviser of Acrefi, who gives up the financiers, the truckers' strike "lit a yellow light and the whole country was in the second half of the year."
economic environment strengthened the sense of caution. "He says that the demand for credit to finance higher value products has stopped, which has pushed industrial companies to reduce their expectations of demand for credit of 7% to 5% this year.In 2017, the increase was 5.2%.
For the MacroSector board director, Fabio Silveira, which slows the growth of retail sales and consumption the high cost of credit for businesses and consumers. "This hinders the greater dynamism of trade this year the modest reduction in consumer interest."
Data from British Columbia show that Between December 2016 and May of this year, basic interest rates were above 50% and the consumer had a much lower cut of 25%. "Reducing interest rates for individuals is marginal by report t to the reduction of the basic interest rate, "says Rafael Cagnin, economist at the Institute of Industrial Development Studies (Iedi).
Although the scenario plays against a higher acceleration of family consumption, economists point to some factors that can bring relief in the budget. Among them, the return of the PIS / Pasep and the compensation of banks to savers who had losses with economic plans. Together, they must inject 50 billion reais into the economy. The information comes from the newspaper
The State of São Paulo
(Mrcia De Chiara and Cleide Silva)
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