How will Jair Bolsonaro's government be?

President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) takes office on Tuesday (1 st). It ends the transition phase and actually starts to govern. But how will your government be? What to expect from him? Gazeta do Povo has enumerated five campaign promises that, far beyond the simple poles for winning votes, help to understand how its management will be directed: a government with many "radical" forms (at least if meets its campaign commitments) [19659002] 1. End the "Take Gives" in Politics

Bolsonaro was elected promising to end the "consideration" in politics and the award of positions within the government. The "editing" of his administration has evolved in this direction. The creation of the Bolsonaro Ministry did not reduce the number of files, from 29 to 22. It also restricted the space reserved for politicians holding a mandate in Congress or at the direction of A party. They will occupy only six ministries: Civil House (with MP Onyx Lorenzoni, DEM), Agriculture (MP Tereza Cristina, DEM), Tourism (MP Marcelo Álvaro Antônio, PSL), Citizenship and Social Action (MP Osmar Terra, BMD), Health (MP Luiz Henrique Mandetta, DEM) and General Secretariat of the Presidency (Gustavo Bebianno, former President of the PSL)

However, not all of these names were a direct indication of the parties. Some were personal choices of the elected president. Others, belonging to thematic groups – such as evangelicals and ruralists.

In addition, Bolsonaro has already indicated its intention not to negotiate directly with the parties to approve projects in Congress; but with these thematic panels, when the subject affects them directly. This is an attempt to avoid party pressures for positions in exchange for congressional support.

If Bolsonaro can do this while approving his proposals, he will have revolutionized the country's political system. But political scientists believe that he will inevitably have to concede at least a little bit if he wants to form an effective government. Indeed, the Brazilian coalition presidentialism asks the government badembly to consider the parties so that the president can have support in Parliament.

Bolsonaro himself seems to know it. More recently, he started receiving party booths to talk. And he admitted that he could accept partisan appointments to second-tier positions.

See also: Bolsonaro's trading strategy with thematic seats tends to fail, according to the expert

2. Governor without ideology (left)

During the election campaign, Bolsonaro used Twitter to condemn what he considers to be the ideological rigging of the state. And compared to corruption. "The ideological problem is as serious or as serious as corruption in Brazil, two ills to fight (sic) .The disappearance of the state and the end of the political indications constitute the necessary remedy to save Brazil", he wrote on the social network.

Bolsonaro and his allies often say that they will rule the country without ideology. But, in fact, it is a change in the ideology of left and "progressive" that has marked the governments of the PT in favor of the right-wing and conservative ideology of the new president.

This ideological change, however, will have obvious effects. The most obvious so far is Brazil's approach to the right-wing countries – such as the United States, Israel, and Italy – and the Brazilian withdrawal of left-wing nations such as Venezuela , Cuba and Nicaragua.

To find out more: Dwarf diplomat to superpower – how Bolsonaro brought Brazil to Israel

Bolsonaro hopes to gain advantages with its international "privileged" partners: for example, to obtain Israeli technology to fight against drought in the north-east and open the American market to Brazilian products. On the other hand, the new ideology threatens to close the doors of important or potentially interesting markets for Brazil. The case of China is emblematic. Bolsonaro criticized the Asian country. He said that he did not want "the Chinese buy Brazil, but buy in Brazil". The government of Beijing has strongly criticized the government in an editorial published in China Daily : "The economic cost [de ser hostil à China] may be difficult for the Brazilian economy that has just emerged from its worst recession. history "

The conservative right will also have an impact on public policies on customs and behavior. The gender ideology in schools and the early badualization of children, badociated with the left by the Bolsonaro political group, will be fought. In the same way, the new government should try to eliminate "cultural Marxism" in schools and universities.

Similarly, the identity politics of minorities – blacks, homobaduals, quilombolas, Indians, etc. – will also lose ground in the Bolsonaro government, women, etc. – which are systematically defended by the left. The new president has already spoken out against quotas at universities and criticized the delimitation of indigenous reserves and lands of quilombolas. He also said that Brazil must get rid of the "coitadismo" of blacks, gays, women and the north-east of the country.

To find out more: Bolsonaro raised the debate: Indians have a lot of land in Brazil?

The abortion release program, which is also linked to left-wing groups, has no chance of advancing under the Bolsonaro government – at least in the executive branch.

3. Adopt a hard line against crime

One of the main reasons that drove Brazilians to elect Bolsonaro was the promise of instituting a hard-line policy against criminals. During the election campaign, the candidate of the time held a series of promises in this area: surrender the possession of weapons to the "citizen of the property"; reduce the age of the criminal offense; toughen the penalties provided for in the penal code; extinguish the progression of the sentence; put an end to the "declarations" of prisoners on festive dates (Christmas, Mother's Day, etc.); extinguish the forgiveness of Christmas (sorry for the sentence); institute the exclusion of illegality (guarantee that the police will not be prosecuted for dead in clashes with bandits); declare "war on drugs".

The first battle of this war will however take place in Congress. Most of these measures require amendments to the legislation, which must be approved by MPs and Senators.

Even though they are adopted by Congress, the results of these policies in reducing crime are uncertain. Some would argue that this will work and use as an example the results of the federal intervention in Rio de Janeiro: in ten months, the security forces have managed to reduce the rates of violent deaths and robberies. On the other hand, some experts see a risk that Brazil is repeating the mistake of countries like Mexico, which has hardened and militarized the crackdown, but has seen homicide rates skyrocket when the organized crime reacted with more violent acts

New Minister Sergio Moro, Minister of Justice and Public Security, has already expressed his intention to invest heavily in the financial stifling of organized crime – a measure emphasized by experts.

million. Moro will also be responsible for the fulfillment of Bolsonaro's promise to fight crime: anti-corruption actions. Former Judge Lava Jato will present to Congress a set of measures to prevent the misappropriation of public money and to facilitate the repression of corrupt people.

4. Privatize as much as possible

Bolsonaro badumes the presidency with the commitment to promote a liberal turning point in the Brazilian economy, seeking to defeat the statism and interventionism that characterize the country historically. And no campaign promise represents both this vision and the commitment to launch a vast privatization program.

Elected Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes wanted to privatize all federal government enterprises. But the elected president has decided not to sell strategic public companies: Petrobras, Eletrobras, Caixa Econômica and Banco do Brasil. Nevertheless, companies linked to them (such as BR Distribuidora) can enter the list of privatizable, which will retain some "jewels of the crown" such as La Poste, Infraero, ports and railways.

The privatization of state-owned enterprises is more difficult than it appears there. Understand why

Privatization should increase the country's competitiveness, increase investment, lower prices, and improve services and products. In addition, the government is committed to using the proceeds from the sale of state-owned companies to pay off part of the public debt – a measure that could lead to a reduction in the country's interest rate. which would further stimulate the economy

. Taking the pulse of the producer

More than once during the election campaign, Bolsonaro is committed to "pulling out the state of the producer 's throat". The informal phrase sums up the opinion of the president-elect and his team that government bureaucracy and excessive regulation make the lives of businessmen too difficult.

Deregulation and unbundling are promises of Bolsonaro's liberal agenda that could facilitate the business environment in Brazil, improve business competitiveness, and thereby promote economic growth. On the other hand, some fear that this promise of Bolsonaro involves the loss of workers' rights and threats to sectors that require regulation and state protection, such as the protection of the state. ;environment.

Bolsonaro himself said during the campaign that the citizen would have the intention that chose between "fewer jobs and more rights or fewer rights and more jobs" when He referred to his proposal to create the green and yellow work portfolio – which, unlike the current model (blue), would have a lower social burden.

The elected president also indicated that he wanted to make labor legislation even more flexible, in addition to the reform operated by the Temer government, to encourage the recruitment of more workers. He also wants to reduce labor costs affecting the payroll of companies, such as mandatory contributions to the S system.

See also:
Can System S cuts create more jobs?

In the same vein as "take out the state of the battlefield" of the producer, the Bolsonaro economic team is studying the simplification and unification of taxes, an idea championed by experts for make life easier for companies Another proposal is to facilitate and streamline environmental licenses. Environmentalists see this promise as a potential risk of worsening deforestation and nature in the country.