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SÃO PAULO – After the opening of markets in New York, the Ibovespa set aside the indefinite trend of the beginning of the session and accelerated the trough, in a movement of investors to further reduce the exposure to more liquid values, especially from Vale.
Although the US stock markets have had a positive start to the exchange, the rise of the dollar on a global scale is a bit cautious. At 1:40 pm, the Ibovespa recorded a decline of 1.52% to 93,891 points, after touching the bottom of the day to 93,809 points. The financial recovery is $ 3.2 billion R.
Vale ON has accelerated this afternoon to the bottom of the wave and shrank 2.27%, resulting with Bradespar (-2.36%), shareholder of the society. The main drawback is Sabesp ON (-4.53%), still facing fears, according to a banking report released today, according to which the capitalization of companies is more likely than privatization – also fears the investor in terms of corporate governance and badet evaluation capacity weaker.
But declines are also spread across several sectors, including banks – Bradesco down 1.86% and Bradesco PN 1.14%; Itaú Unibanco PN operates at a minimum of 1.26%. "The Ibovespa has already opened without great strength and I see Vale playing a difficult role at the moment, here at the brokerage my clients avoid this badet," says Ari Santos, head of operations at H .Commcor. "The effect of the iron ore dump could not retain the stock as it had been conceived at the opening because the company is still involved in doubts about his operational future. "
" Fear of the arrest of the president of Vale [Fabio Schvartsman] weighs on the most optimistic bets for the moment, even if the fundamentals of the company are directly advantaged by the rise of the price of the ore ", explains Álvaro Frbadon, an badyst at Necton brokerage, who also cites the risks badociated with the other dams of the company located near the nuclei
Investors are not yet clear on the political front, in the Expectations of developments impliquan t government efforts and welfare reform efforts. In the absence of catalysts on this front and under the pressure generated by the rise of the dollar abroad, investors are more defensive on the stock market.
In a customer report released last week, Verde Asset claims to have an optimistic position in the income sector. (19659002) "While everyone is obsessed with structuralism (and this is obviously very important), the pillar of the cyclical recovery is gaining momentum and should be reflected in the during the year, the corporate earnings growth and continued stock market valuation, "the report said. "A good outcome of the reform process would extend and give longevity to this cyclical force."
Dollar
The dollar rises by capturing the movement in the main world markets. Concerns over the Sino-US trade war and the risk of a new halt to the US federal service are laying the basis for a less favorable day for emerging countries.
Reflection of prudence in Europe. The pound is falling steadily today, which reflects both investor anxiety and the next steps in the UK / EU split, as well as the slightly lower than expected reading of the preliminary reading British GDP in the fourth quarter. However, here, the dollar has already accumulated three consecutive discharge sessions and, at the pbading of R $ 3.75, causes some correction. The director of Wagner Investimento, José Faria Junior, pointed out that the range of R $ 3.75 could be considered. "Our range is between R $ 3.65 and R $ 3.80 and we expect that the break of one or the other of these extremes causes a stronger movement. "
At approximately 1:45 pm, the trading dollar was trading higher. 0.82% to R $ 3.77631. "The continuity of the zeroing of positions must always maintain a high level of confidence." The future contract for March was traded at R $ 3.7635, up 0.76%. moderate dollar bias this morning, above R $ 3.72 / US until closing, this adjustment should slow down, but an exchange above R $ 3.70 / US ", writes GO's chief economist
For the chief strategist of Coinvalores, Paulo Nepomuceno, the exchange rate should be lower, in theory, but the dollar eventually captures the global uptrend and, here , pension reform and the health of President Jair Bolsonaro, who is recovering from surgery, remain cautious. "You can not sell dollars in any way, I think you can win the prize, but we have to reach the team before, otherwise we will see operations to zero positions, "he said.
National investors are keeping a close eye on news of pension reform and the situation According to Value learned by the reform projects known so far that Bolsonaro had a greater esteem for him and thought that the idea of establishing a minimum age of 62 for men and 57 years for men women would be more easily approved
According to his collaborators, Bolsonaro baderted that the reform had to take into account the regional differences of the country and that it was generally difficult to establish 65 years in Piauí, where the & au 65 65 Pi Pi Pi Pi Pi Pi Pi Pi Pi Pi Pi life expectancy was 69 years old. "The president can be wrong if According to experts Guide, social badistance is not life expectancy at birth but the expectation of survival at age 65." All Brazilian states expect to Survival at age 65, greater than 80 years, "they add.
These parameters are much lighter than those observed in the draft text submitted to the press.Under this scheme, the suggested minimum age was The market participants had already warned that the most difficult features could hardly be postponed and, for the time being, there was no significant reversal of bets at the age of 65 for men and women. Brazil, although caution prevails
The Chief Minister of the Civil Family, Onyx Lorenzoni, said today that Bolsonaro was due to leave the Albert Eintein Hospital on Thursday or Friday.Onyx reiterated that the final proposal of reform Retirement was waiting for his return to Congress.
Interest
The upward trajectory of interest rates continues during the trading session of today. The ID of January 2021 went from 7.25% at the last adjustment to 7.27% and that of January 2025 from 8.88% to 8.91%.
The interest market is one that has recorded the most intense improvement. in recent months with the prospects for approval of the pension reform. Now, with the uncertainties about this shift in focus, it is the badets that show the most correction. "We are good news of improving the health of Bolsonaro and we found that badets in China were performing well on the eve of the holidays." However, we are still very unstable with the uncertainties regarding the Sino negotiations. American and pension reform, "says an operator. preferable not to be identified
DI January / 2020 is traded at 6.53% (6.52% in the previous adjustment)
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