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SÃO PAULO – After opening a day of gains, Ibovespa fell sharply in the afternoon on Monday (10), driven by the fall of more than 5% Petrobras PETR3, PETR4) and according to the external scenario, US indexes opening with decreases of up to 2%.
Abroad, Wall Street indexes rebounded and turned to the positive in the last part of the trading session, but Ibovespa did not follow the move and closed on a fall of 2.50%, to 85 914 points. The financial volume amounted to R $ 12.313 billion. The commercial dollar, on the other hand, rose 0.73%, against R $ 3.9177 on the sale.
The index was put under pressure by Petrobras, which recorded a 5% drop in the context of the sharp 3% drop. of oil. The commodity had recorded solid gains in the last session with the preliminary agreement of OPEC, but fell again in the prospect of weak demand in 2019.
The futures are close to stability, while long IDs have risen the market has resumed the effect of data showing a favorable picture of price dynamics in a weak economy, which has adjusted inflation projections to the decline.
In the Focus report, the projection for the IPCA rose from 3.89% to 3.71% in 2018 and went from 4.11% to 4.07% in 2019, while badysts slowed down Selic expectation of 7, 75% to 7.50% next year. The contract maturing in January 2019 was stable at 6.40%, while the contract maturing in January 2023 was up 8 basis points to 9.21%.
The Asian stock markets on the decline registered a significant decline. Monday after a further fall in the New York markets during the last session and much lower data than expected in the Chinese trade balance.
The fall is generalized with the potential escalation of the trade war after the Chinese Vice Chancellor's protest against Huawei's arrest. It should be noted that during the weekend, official data showed that the trade dispute between the United States and China was damaging to the Asian giant's trade. In November, Chinese exports and imports grew much less than expected, with annual gains of 5.4% and 3%, respectively.
China's inflation indicators have also been released. The annual rate of consumption inflation was reduced from 2.5% in October to 2.2% in November, while that of producers reached 3.3% to 2.7% in the same comparison. However, the biggest drop was recorded in the Nikkei after the publication of disappointing figures of gross domestic product of Japan
. Here, the eyes are turned to the economic reforms and controversies of the new government. In an interview with Cbad Book of the Band, the Minister of Transition and future Minister of the Civil House, Onyx Lorenzoni (DEM-RS), said that it was not decided yet if the proposal to reform the new government's pension system would be sent to the US Congress.
Last week, President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) said that the retirement rules could be changed gradually, stating that the priority would be to set a minimum age to apply for benefits.
] Company News
In the company's radar, the highlight is Eletrobras, after the court overturned a preliminary injunction that could prevent the auction of the privatization of Amazonas Energia, which was awarded to Oliveira Energia, winner of the sale this afternoon [19659006] Become a partner of the largest companies in the stock market with ZERO RATE of brokerage! Click here and open a Clear account!
Still in the radar, TRF-3 canceled a decision of a federal court suspending the agreement to create a joint venture between Embraer and Boeing. According to Judge Luiz Alberto de Souza Ribeiro, "the invasion of the judiciary into the private autonomy of the parties creates legal uncertainty which, in the context of the present case, engenders reflexes on the national and international markets ".
The last meeting of the 2018 Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) concludes on Wednesday (12), with badysts waiting for the rate of Selic be maintained at 6.50% per year
] In the current scenario, after this week's IPCA recorded higher than expected deflation and in a US employment data scenario more low, which reduce the chances of further tightening of the Federal Reserve's policy, one selic remains high in the market in 2019. On the other hand, some think that this interest will remain stable over the course of next year.
It should also be noted the monthly survey on trade and services of October which should give the first signs of the pace. Brazilian activity during the last quarter of the year. For the GO Associates team, the extended retail trade is expected to decline by 1.1% over the month, while services should decrease by 0.3%. Both, however, are expected to record gains over the cumulative 12 months.
The fourth balance is the budget balance of last month. The week also includes, on Friday (14), sales figures from the November trade, industrial production and PMI services Markit.
In the United States, investors will pay attention to inflation indices. producer, who leave on Tuesday (11), and consumer consumption inflation indices, Wednesday (12), for the month of November. In Europe, the decision taken Thursday by the ECB (European Central Bank) is highlighted.
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