Ibovespa recovers in the end and retains 96,000 views at Bolsonaro in Davos and data from China



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SÃO PAULO – After falling by more than 1%, Ibovespa again gained momentum, without however experiencing a positive turnaround on the day of the correction following the closure US scholarship holiday on Martin Luther King's day. In anticipation of the start of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the market is also responding to data from the Chinese economy.

Ibovespa closed down 0.09%, to 96,009 points, after a decline of 1.28% at the bottom of the day. The financial volume was 19 401 billion rand. At the same time, the dollar contract maturing in February 2019 increased by 0.19% to R $ 3 761, while the commercial dollar increased by 0.08% to R $ 3.77587 at the time of the sale.

In the ID market, the January 2021 futures contract closed at 7.34%, while the contract for January 2023 fell by 2 basis points to 8.44%.

] The market digests data on China's growth in 2018 by 6.6%, the lowest since 1990, confirming the country's economic slowdown. In the fourth quarter of last year, China's gross domestic product (GDP) was up 6.4% from the same period in 2017, a slight slowdown from the 6.5% registered in the third quarter.

investor expectations of President Jair Bolsonaro's first participation at the World Economic Forum in Davos between Tuesday (22) and Friday (25). This event brings together the economic and political elites of the planet and will be the ideal opportunity for Bolsonaro to present its projects to foreigners.

The market is still waiting for details on the pension reform, a dirty proposal has already been handed to the president, the second his deputy, General Hamilton Mourão, who will badume the presidency of the Republic until Friday (25 ).

The outgoing president of the country, his allies will face the negative consequences of the polemics related to the government of Flávio Bolsonaro.

Share Highlights
The most significant losses among the shares comprising the Bovespa Index are as follows: [1] Code Assets Cot R $ [19659013] Day % Year Flight 1 ESTC3 ESTACIO PARTON +21.00 187.36M MGLU3 MAGAZ LUIZA ON 167 , 00 -4,13 -7,47 BANW3 B2W DIGITAL ON 44.50 -3.26 +5.90 [19659019] 125.89M CSAN3 COSAN ON ] GOL PN N2 23.62 -2.44 The largest increases, among the publications comprising the index of Bovespa, were as follows:

Code Active ] % % % % %
1
RENT3 LOCALIZA ON 32.30 +3.59 272.77M [1SUZB3 SUZANO PAPELON 45.60 +2.77 +19.75 227.64M
CIEL3 CIO ON 10.65 +2.21 +19.80 101.86M
SBSP3 SABESP ON 41.51 +2.07 LOGG3 LOG WITH PROPON 19.14 +2.03 [19659029] +6.22 7.75M ] The most traded stocks, among which the Bovespa index, are as follows:

Code Active Cot R $ Var% Vol 1 Vol 30d ] PETR4
PETROBRAS PN N2 25.44 +0.16 [19459093] 1.08B 1.87 B 35.821
] VALE3 VALE ON 55.28 +0.95

BBAS3 BRASIL ON 48.29 -0.54 36M 21,060
BBDC4 [196] 59089] BRADESCO PN 42.19 -1.15 [19459093] 306.81M 597.17M 19.995
ITUB4 ITAUUNIBANCOPN 373

-0.82 289.64M 782.80M 24.808
+3.59 272.77M 149.14M 26.842
B3SA3 B3 ON 30.50 +0.33 375.37M 29.759
SUZB3 SUZANO PAPELON 45.60 +2.77 227.64 M [19659096] MAGAZ LUIZA ON 167.00 -4.13 211.26M 6.336
ESTC3 STATION OF PARTON [19659093] 28.75

– [Beaucoup d'actions]
– In reais ( K – Thousand | M – Millions | B – Billion) IBOVESPA

Political News
The controversies surrounding President Jair Bolsonaro and his family remain on the radar. Friday evening, TV Globo's national newspaper revealed that the elected Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PSL) had received R $ 96,000 over a period of five days between June and July 2017. According to the report, 48 deposits of 2,000 R $ was paid in kind to the bank branch located inside the Alerj (Legislative Assembly of Rio).

In an interview with TV Record, Flávio Bolsonaro said that the payment of the title of the bank refers to the commercial real estate. He took some papers, but did not want to show them, claiming that the press was not the proper place for such clarification. He said the deposits were divided into R $ 2,000 because that was the accepted limit in the ATM. In Itaú, the only bank in which the elected senator has a declared account, the cash deposit limit at the ATM is actually R $ 2,000. In Alerj, where the deposits were made, a self-service is offered in Itaú, reports the newspaper Folha de S. Paulo.

The documents obtained from the notaries show that Flávio Bolsonaro registered from 2014 to 2017 the acquisition of two apartments located in the noble neighborhoods of Rio de Janeiro, for an informed cost of 4.2 million Rands, reported Folha. In some transactions, the value declared by buyers and sellers is lower than that used by the city to collect taxes.

During the reporting period, Flávio was a representative of the State of Rio de Janeiro and had a salary of R $ 25. , 3 thousand gross. In the interview with Record, Bolsonaro 's son said the MP' s salary is the smallest part of his income.

Faced with controversy surrounding the president's son, the opposition has already discussed the creation of a CIP (parliamentary inquiry commission). to deepen the investigation into the case of former driver Fabrício Queiroz, who worked until last year for Flávio Bolsonaro's office. In December, the president admitted to having made a loan of R $ 40,000 to the son's former advisor, without declaring the operation to the taxman. According to Folha de S. Paulo, the PT will address the issue at a meeting on Monday (21).

In the field of taxation, the services sector argues that the new payroll relief should be offset by a financial transaction tax, similar to the 39, former "control fee". . A proposal from the CNS (National Confederation of Services) has been forwarded to the Internal Revenue Service's special secretary, Marcos Cintra, who has already stated that reducing payroll costs would be the agency's priority.

The entity proposes that the contribution (RGPS) – the rate of which is less than 20% of the remuneration of employees – is set to zero and replaced by a social security contribution on financial transactions

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Social Security Reform

The Secretary of Social Security of the Ministry of Economy, Rogério Marinho, announced the government's intention to introduce pension reform in the House of Representatives in the second week of February. For that, the strategy is to use the text already in the House and to propose adjustments by means of an amendment, to prevent the measure from being discussed again by the committees.

The uncertainty as to how the military will fit into the new text remains. The Minister of the Civil House, Onyx Lorenzoni, defended that the army is outside the social security reform. The financial market is concerned that the opening of concessions to some workers will reduce the impact of the reform on the public accounts and undermine the reorganization of fiscal policy.

Lorenzoni said in an interview with the SBT recorded and broadcast Saturday night (19) that the intention of the new government is not to dehydrate the reform as it appeared in the text from the government of Michel Temer.

The minister said that Congress would make adjustments to the text but that he did not have a "very large margin" for these adjustments. Pension reform is important to ensure "predictability" for local and foreign investors wishing to contribute to Brazil's resources, said Onyx Lorenzoni.

The pension reform proposal has already been presented by the economic team to President Jair Bolsonaro. , the cost of pensions and retirements of the military aviation, navy and army remains a black box within the government.

The Department of Defense does not provide all the data on the retirement of the military for the economic team to calculate the weight. benefits for long-term public accounts. Behind the scenes, they argue that the restrictions are due to national security problems and do not mention, for example, the number of military members entering the reserve and those who will be retired. The army in the reserve remains at the disposal of the armed forces, while the retired military is retired or permanently retired.

This account is important for planning the evolution not only of the expenses, but also of the Brazilian public debt. The Brazilian Court of Auditors (TCU) is asking the armed forces to calculate the "actuarial deficit", which will indicate the projection of expenditures in long-term military inactivity.

Between 2017 and 2018, it is the one that has experienced the greatest growth compared to the breakdown of the regime of civil servants of the Union and the INSS: it went from 35.9 billion rand to 40 , 5 billion rand

The economic agenda of the week

Regarding the indicators, the week will be quiet, the highlight being the IPCA-January 15 to be published Wednesday ( 23). For GO Associados badysts, inflation data should show an increase of 0.39%, bringing the 12-month total to 3.86%. In the week, the industry, the CNI and the FGV trade and consumer surveys, with forecasts for the country's economy, are still on hold.

The Brazilian Stock Exchange does not open on Friday (25) due to (19659004) In the United States, investors will monitor the November trade balance sheet publications on Monday (21), Tuesday's December trade sales (22), the PMI activity sector index of the industry and services in January Thursday (24) and durable goods orders data Friday (25.).

Investors remain "divided" between the United States and the United Kingdom. In the first, attention is drawn to the continuity of "negotiations " (which have not yet weighed on the market) and negotiations with China as a result rumors that President Trump would be willing

Meanwhile, the British follow their political crisis after the defeat of Theresa May in Parliament during the vote on the agreement of Brexit (at the UK exit from the European Union). She has to present a new project (21), but she has had difficulty negotiating with the opposition. In the current scenario, the government must rush to approve an agreement or postpone the Brexit deadline to March 29th.

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