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Today, on the eve of the match against Brazil in the last 16 of the World Cup, Mexico defines its future president for the next six years, as well as deputies, senators and mayors. The election result, contested in a single quarter, may mean a turnaround in the political balance of Latin America. Leader isolated in the polls, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known under the initials AMLO, promises a big victory of the left on the continent which lives a turn to the right.
With a speech aimed at fighting corruption, Obrador, 64, of the legend of the National Regeneration Movement (Morena), appears with 51% of the preference of voters in recent research, far ahead of the conservative Ricardo Anaya , of the National Action Party (PAN), which holds 27% of the vote. The presidential candidate, Jose Antonio Meade, former finance minister of current president Enrique Peña Nieto, appears in third place with 19% of the vote. Its legend, the Party of Institutional Revolution (PRI), suffers from the weariness of the current government.
A prospective Morena government would break with the traditional politics that has controlled Mexico for decades. The PRI ran the country between 1929 and 2000, and returned to power in 2012 after two PAN governments. According to Thiago Rodrigues, coordinator of postgraduate studies in strategic studies at the Fluminense Federal University (UFF), the eventual success of AMLO would be due to economic and geopolitical circumstances. "Peña Nieto was elected with a speech of change in the economic framework and the fight against drug trafficking, but in fact very little has been done.It incorporated the speech of the young manager, technocrat, and was a huge failure from the economic and security point of view. "
Rodrigues also cites the rise of Donald Trump as a key factor in Obrador's success: "The president's speech against the government". NAFTA and the The peaceful and xenophobic and racist rhetoric, as well as the defense of the construction of a border wall, have made leftist and anti-American speeches more dominant. "He believes that if Obrador is elected, both leaders will conduct public attacks, but the Mexican will rely on the support of the people and international solidarity.
Security is also one of the main goals of the Mexican leftist candidate, who led the country's capital between 2000 and 2005, and adopted security policies on the advice of the former mayor of New York, Rudolph Giuliani. The country, which lives the bloodiest year in decades, has had at least 136 politicians murdered since the beginning of the campaign in September.
For UFF professor and doctor of political science, Danillo Bragança, the issue of security in Mexico is complex by the relationship between organized crime and political structure. "The cartels, from the most organized to the simplest, from the poorest departments and villages, have a direct and indirect influence on politics – either by substituting themselves for the state or by transforming themselves into a state of symbiosis. where one feeds the other, "says Bragança. Also according to the academic, Peña Nieto's adaptation policy has failed and spread violence in areas that have not suffered from crime, such as the city of Acapulco, which is one of the most dangerous in the world today.
Obrador, where he is elected, should reduce the influence of military authorities on security policy and appeal to technology. "Mexico had until 2000 checkpoints that prevented the entry of the inhabitants of the most peripheral and therefore most dangerous regions of the capital." Obrador replaced this policy with surveillance systems. Expansion at a national level would take the ostensibility of the army and direct conflict, creating smarter systems. "
Obrador is in his third presidential candidacy. In 2006, in the first race, he was very close to victory, but lost to conservative Felipe Calderón (PAN) only 0.62% of the vote. In 2012, the difference compared to Peña Nieto was greater, but his vote increased. This time, 2018 promises to be his year. But, as in football, even though he's leading in the training phase, he has to wait for his performance in the most decisive game of his life
The election inspires the products
Taking advantage of Mexico's electoral climate, proponents of Andrés Manuel López Obrador called for creative outlets.
In the native state of Obrador, Tabasco, in the south of the country, supporters of Morena produced a Jamaican-based wine, sold in bottles with different labels. One of them has the caption "Obrador 2018-2024", referring to the eventual presidential term.
In the same region, supporters of Santeria, a Yoruba lineage, sell candles with the face of the candidate – almost like a god – "The hope of Mexico".
* With the supervision of Denis Kuck
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