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The election of the left means a resounding defeat for political elites and could cause a profound change in the country. After an election clouded by accusations of fraud in Honduras and a farce in Venezuela, observers also expect the worst of Mexico, a country that inspired writers to write entire books on electoral manipulation. 19659002] López Obrador was elected with a promise to fight corruption "src =" https://p2.trrsf.com/image/fget/cf/460/0/images.terra.com/2018/07/02 / 44485275354. jpg "title =" López Obrador was elected with a promise to fight corruption "width =" 460 “/>
López Obrador was elected with a promise to fight corruption Photo: DW / Deutsche Welle
But observers were surprised: polling day was quieter than most days in Mexico, voter turnout reached 63% and even before the release of the results.
and on the basis of polls, the two defeated candidates admitted to losing the presidential candidates and congratulated Andrés Manuel López Obrador, known as "AMLO", for his victory .
The winner of the left pronounced a presidential speech with which he calmed businessmen and promised to fight against corruption. AMLO said that he wanted to go into history as a "good president". Until now, everything is exemplary. But what does it mean to win a country in chaos?
The triumph of Lopez Obrador is more a defeat of the traditional Mexican parties than a victory of socialism. The National Party of the Institutional Revolution (PRI) and the conservatives of the National Action Party (PAN) have been billed for the war on drugs, corruption and a liberal economic model that has not succeeded to put an end to social disparities in Mexican society
After 99 years of PRI rule, only interrupted by the Vicente Fox government of PAN (2000-2006), AMLO was the only candidate with a chance to win that incorporated a more or less credible change – even if it did not really convey values such as progress or innovation. On the contrary, he was more overwhelmed by the nostalgia for paternalistic state capitalism and by the aspiration to a strong man at the head of the government.
The "fourth transformation" and its obstacles
López Obrador promised nothing less than the fourth transformation of Mexico "after independence (1821), secularization (1857) and revolution (1910/11). [19659005] But it is doubtful that he will be able to extend pensions, scholarships, and medical care without creating new debts or raising taxes.The Mexican economy, currently in charge of exports, is in a state of uncertainty because of the renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
The Pivot for the next six years in Mexico will be AMLO himself, according to his own conception.His National Regeneration Movement (Morena) has been specially adapted for him.With his personalist style of government and his centralism, he will polarize the country and make his mark – or at least try to do it.
But Mexico No longer is the presidentialist absolutist state that he once was. of the "perfect dictatorship" in the 1960s and 1970s. It is a decentralized federation with influential states, powerful businessmen, a strong civil society, a globalized economy, and emerging industrial cities.
López Obrador, isolated redeemer, will not succeed in solving the complex problems of the country, warned the Council of Coordination of Affairs (CEC) on the night of the election. But he can even succeed, since the new president has had to balance various interests during his tenure as mayor of Mexico between 2000 and 2005.
Majority in Congress?
But it remains to be seen whether the AMLO pragmatism has demonstrated how it will override his sense of authoritarian mission during the presidential administration
It is so that he will be able to decide how it will deal with a reinforced civil society which has made in recent years important changes in the laws of the country. These citizen groups pursue the same agenda as entrepreneurs in the areas of transparency, the rule of law and institution building. The conflicts with Lopez Obrador are predictable because he is wary of autonomous institutions.
To realize his ideas, the president also needs a majority in Congress. And that can be more difficult than it seems at first glance. The coalition Juntos Faremos História, of López Obrador, has a comfortable majority in the Chamber of Deputies, with 71% of the seats. But the tripartite alliance is as diffuse as its title: it has no programmatic base, the range of party members ranging from evangelical fundamentalists to Maoists, opportunist and corrupt politicians of the United States. ;time. We do not know how it will be possible to reconcile this reality with the fight against corruption promised in the campaign.
It is also open what the PRI and PAN will be. The two parts are deeply divided, there is the possibility of bursts of various groups, and the result of such processes would be more than uncertain. Some dissidents may join Morena and the new president's label may become a new political reservoir, or some sort of "PRI 2.0".
The emergence of an effective and combative opposition would also be possible. After all, AMLO won half of the votes. The other half is against him
Deutsche Welle is the German international broadcaster and produces independent journalism in 30 languages. Follow us on Facebook | Twitter | YouTube | WhatsApp | App | Instagram
Deutsche Welle is the international broadcaster of Germany and produces independent journalism in 30 languages.
