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When it was established that Buenos Aires would be the headquarters of the G20 in 2018, the president of Argentina, Mauricio Macri, surged into a wave of popularity. He believed that the summit of the world's largest economies, of which his country is a part, would be the crowning glory of his international and popular prestige with the people.
In recent days, Macri has received its main creditors – since Argentina, in the midst of the economic crisis, was saved by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and "in a series of bilateral meetings , striving to attract investors and enter into agreements with group leaders representing 85% of the world's wealth.
The organizer, Macri, scheduled until Sunday (2) 17 meetings bilateral relations, including Chinese presidents, Xi Jinping, Russian Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Angela Merkel Already met the presidents of the United States Donald Trump, and the Frenchman Emmanuel Macron: Brazilian President Michel Temer (MDB), was not on the agenda of private meetings in Macri
"Argentina promised something that would not materialize . Macri himself, when he was elected president in 2015, promised a lot and has not yet kept his promises. The year 2018 should be very positive for Argentina, bear fruit and make the country a great international player. "
For Oliver Stuenkel, Professor of International Relations at the FGV (Fundação Getúlio Vargas Foundation, Fundação Getúlio Vargas Foundation – Fundação Getúlio Vargas Foundation) Getúlio Vargas) and author of" The Post-Western World: Emerging Powers and New World Order " ", Macri is perceived as a person enjoying a very good reputation among world leaders, despite the situation in Argentina.
" in the beginning, as a person who made the right proposals. But he faced a very difficult situation. Macri's idea was to portray himself as a foreign policy actor with the G20, without worrying too much about internal challenges. And that did not work, "says the expert.
So much prestige has allowed Argentina to benefit from the largest aid program already provided by the IMF, to At home, however, the scenario is another: popular support rates plummeting (its popularity, according to recent polls, was 35%), forecasting inflation for between 45% and 50% in 2018 an unemployment rate of more than 9.5% of the population and an expected economic contraction of 2.6% this year, as well as a bad situation
A crisis that exceeds the numbers
And the crisis is not limited to In addition to the high prices of products, it is possible to see how begging has increased in Buenos Aires. ODS-UCA (Observatory of social debt of the Catholic University of Argentina) estimates that 1.5 million people risk falling r in poverty due to the devaluation of the peso and inflation.
According to Velasco. Uerj, a country that does not enjoy the confidence of the international community and the financial system, would not be able to obtain badistance equivalent to that achieved by Argentina. "These agreements serve as a support for Macri's reform policy," he says.
Benjamin Gedan, adviser to the Latin American program of the American think tank Wilson Center and project director Argentina believes that, even if the budget cuts imposed by the IMF are politically costly for the president, especially in view of the presidential elections next year, Argentina should reach its budget deficit target and continue to respect the IMF next year
"Obstacles lie ahead, including the risk that the unpredictable presidential campaign of the Argentina surprises investors, but given Argentina's achievements so far, his government does not need to show dogs and ponies at the G20 to show its commitment to the obligations of the IMF, "said Gedan.
"Instead of a sudden and rapid reform, he tried to make a partial reform, which ended up locking up in the Argentine Congress.He is currently in a very delicate political situation and the G20 is coming to Macri in a moment marked by his weakness, not by his strength, "said Matias Spektor, also professor at the FGV and coordinator of the degree in International Relations.
"Do Macri's point of view, the G20 will not have the effect that he wanted when he designed everything." What the G20 in Argentina will highlight is the the importance of the G20 itself, because some countries can not recover and risk a serious crisis, as is the case in Argentina, "said Spektor.
Gedan, of the Wilson Center, also said that the economic recession and double-digit inflation meant that Argentina would not show its best to the leaders who are in Buenos Aires. "If Argentina avoids security problems, violent protests or diplomatic conflicts, it will be able to show world leadership at the top and erase the image of the crisis that has occurred. developed in the region. "
The situation of Argentina is worse than that of the Brazilian
Macri has inherited most of its problems from the last government of Cristina Kirchner, who must run for president of the country. next year when the businessman will try to represent himself. Today, Argentina is experiencing a much worse fiscal imbalance than Brazil and is unsustainable, meaning that its spending goes beyond what might be possible in the first place.
"Argentina has a much more vulnerable economy than Brazil, with fewer reserves to withstand this economic situation.In addition, the country has a much lower level of confidence in the institutions than in the case from Brazil.Thus, the investor has less confidence in Argentina than in Brazil, "says Stuenkel of the FGV.
Argentina went into the same hole.
Macri, for the time being, does not have to show his results to his creditors, although they received them at home, but rather to a research effort.
Paulo Velasco, de Uerj
by the results to get the country out of the crisis. "He must show his commitment to the reforms he has shown. This is why the IMF continues to give it money because its commitment to reform is real. The fact that they do not give effect is still five hundred, "said Spektor.
" In addition, statements of support from visiting heads of state will help rebadure investors. An increase in investment is crucial to reactivate the sluggish economy of Argentina, says Gedan, Wilson Center specialist.
"In the latest survey conducted by Argentina by the Research Center International Woodrow Wilson in Washington and Poliarquía in Buenos Aires nearly 40% of those surveyed said the most important contribution of the summit would be to attract foreign investment to Argentina, "he explains.
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