"Maduro refused to see reality"

The German sociologist and economist Heinz Dieterich is known for his left-wing positions and mainly for the creation of a work that inspired Hugo Chávez and for having been an adviser to the Venezuelan government until 2007. [19659002HeisthedirectorofCenterforTransitionSciencesoftheMetropolitanAutonomousUniversityofMexicoandauthorof Sozialismus of the 21. Jahrhunderts (21st century socialism), in addition to having written Global society with the famous American sociologist Noam Chomsky

In an interview with DW, Dieterich claims that the Maduro government made a mistake by not adapting to the new reality and not reacting not to the growing dissatisfaction of the population

"Perhaps Maduro's biggest mistake was not to change the political-economic model of Hugo Chavez, which was already exhausted in 2010 by falling oil prices, "he said.

DW: The most important and the most beautiful of Nicolás Maduro? Would it have been to cling to power?

Heinz Dieterich : Without a doubt. But the biggest mistake may have been not to change the economic model of Hugo Chávez, which was already exhausted in 2010, mainly because of falling oil prices. He had to restructure this model and that's something he did not do. The consequences were the depreciation of the national currency and the deterioration of the well-being of the population. HD: Yes, it was the first big one. DW: Did he refuse to see the reality? Maduro error, do not change the development model and do not respond to growing social non-conformity. It also did not change the political discourse, and when all of this converged into defeat in the 2015 elections (the opposition won a majority in Parliament), instead of seeking a fresh start, it started using police forces to control the situation. It was a spiral that started in 2011 and ends now.

I think Cuba made two main mistakes in this process. When Hugo Chavez became ill and it became predictable that we should pursue his historic project, there were two proposals. Lula, who was then the head of the Brazilian government, said the Venezuelan government was so weak that it had to forge alliances with the national bourgeoisie to develop the country and, after the economic success, proceed with reforms. deeper for the revolution. Fidel Castro, meanwhile, said that Maduro was to radicalize the revolution and that he should not enter into agreements with the bourgeoisie because he would be betrayed. That was the big surprise, which was wrong, from my point of view. Maduro decided to follow Fidel's proposal. The second major mistake was to rely solely on the strength of the army.

The influence of the Cuban security apparatus on Venezuela is still in effect and, in my opinion, the Cubans did not understand that this model would fail

DW: HD: After the failed coup of 2002 against Hugo Chávez, Venezuela obviously had no functioning intelligence service. HD: And Cuba helped with the intelligence services and, of course, with the doctors of the social sphere. The influence of the Cuban security apparatus on Venezuela is still in force and, in my opinion, the Cubans did not understand that this model would fail. They did not expect Washington to increase the exchange rate by force if there was no change by negotiation. This was a mistake by Cuban intelligence and diplomacy, who shared information with Russian, Chinese and Bolivian diplomats. They never understood that the model was already unsustainable five years ago and then sold to their governments the optimistic idea that Maduro's control over Venezuela was safe.

Guaidó relies on an outside intervention (Public Pictures)

DW: HD: They thought that there was a transitional crisis but it could be controlled. It was a big mistake, underestimating Washington's policy, which, of course, became very aggressive again with Trump. They underestimated this potential when they wanted to react when Juan Guaidó became the protagonist of Washington in Venezuela. HD: HD: HD: HD: HD: HD: HD: HD: HD: This failure has already occurred place. Washington has made an offer to Admiral Craig S. Faller's southern command, which Guaidó has resumed, baderting that the Bolivarian Armed Forces would favor a peaceful exit from Maduro, that he could exile without any war being desired. That, if the armed forces drop Maduro, it is possible to reach a transitional government and demand free elections without bloodshed.

Dissatisfaction with the leadership of the country and the armed forces under Maduro has already been several years [19659015] DW: And this offer from Washington has been accepted?

HD: I think the generals accepted it. The Minister of Defense, Vladimir Padrino López, delivered a speech a few days ago which, in my opinion, was a coded message intended for Washington, suggesting that the superior generals had accepted this offer. That they understand that Maduro is replaceable and that it is possible to negotiate a new government with the empire, with Washington. Now, the verticality of the armed forces remains essentially intact, but of course, 150 generals, colonels and soldiers are in prison. Discontent with the course of the country and the armed forces under Maduro has already existed for several years. Washington's ultimatum aims to sacrifice Maduro or to go to war with Colombia, Brazil, and NATO as allies. HD: There was. DW: DW: Did the medium and low command of the army suffer as much as the population? a high drop-out rate among ordinary soldiers, because the living conditions are very deplorable. There are middle managers in the military hierarchy who come back to Chávez's ideas. The middle managers and the troops are Chavistes, Bolivarians, they are not madurists. As pressure strengthens the role of the armed forces, this rupture will be evident between the leaders of the corrupt and privileged military and the middle and lower ranks of the hierarchy.