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The former President Lula, who is in jail, continues to be the candidate of a third of Brazilians and, in his absence, only the right-wing deputy Jair Bolsonaro and l '. Marina Silva ecologist surpbad 10% of the voting intentions for the according to a poll released Thursday.
Luiz Incio Lula da Silva, who is serving a 12-year sentence and a month in prison for corruption, obtained 33 percent of the vote, according to a survey conducted by the Brazilian Institute of Human Rights. Public opinion and statistics (Ibope) for the National Confederation of Industries (CNI)
followed by Bolsonaro with 15% and Marina Silva with 7%, in addition to Ciro Gomes and Geraldo Alckmin with 4%.
But in a scenario without Lula – whose candidacy is likely to be invalidated by Justia Eleitoral – Jair Bolsonaro would get 17% of the vote; Marina Silva, 13%; Ciro Gomes, 8%, and Geraldo Alckmin;
Lula's vote does not seem transferable since Fernando Haddad, former mayor of So Paulo, as a possible replacement candidate, would only get 2% of the vote.
The percentage of blank votes would increase from 22% to 33% in a configuration without Lula, according to the survey, which has a margin of error of two percentage points
The polarization of these elements seen in the broad rejection generated by both Lula and Bolsonaro
The survey, conducted between 21 and 24 June with 2,000 voters, shows similar results led by Datafolha at the beginning of the month, which gives 30% of votes in Lula and, in his absence, leaves Bolsonaro
Ibope does not make second-round simulations, but in Datafolha Marina Silva was largely opposed to any candidate except Lula
] Elections will take place on October 7, with the second The tour is scheduled for October 28 if no candidate gets more than half of the valid votes.
– Polarizao –
The polarization of these elections, announced as the most uncertain since the re-democratization, is reflected in the rejection indices and divides the country geographically and socially.
"Among these possible candidates for the post of President of the Republic, in which you would vote for nothing?", 32% responded to Bolsonaro and 31%, Lula. Lula's strongest support in the Northeast (54%), among women (35%), youths aged 25 to 34 (38%), also among voters under 34, and as schooling and family income level decline, according to Ibope [19659002] In scenarios without Lula, Bolsonaro has his main support among men (only 10% of women would vote for him) and people aged 35 to 44 , and their support increases proportionally to the level of education, reaching 24% among higher education graduates and income levels.
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