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The May balance of payments was influenced by the devaluation of the real against the dollar, the increasing uncertainty of global investors and the immediate negative effects of the transport strike. The final result of the current accounts for the month (US $ 729 million surplus) is still reasonable and the strength of the exchange rate prevails, but uncertainties about the future are gaining ground.
The closure of road transport decreased by about $ 2 billion trade surplus, to the point that May's exports were lower than May in May 2017, "the first contraction of the comparison of Year after year since December 2016 ", according to the Central Bank of (BC).
This led to an increase in the accumulated current account deficit accumulated in 12 months, from 0.55% of the gross domestic product (GDP) in April to 0.65% of GDP in May. These figures remain modest and do not raise fears about the financing of the deficit, which comes mainly from the direct investment in the country (IDP). But IDPs also fell, closing at $ 3 billion in May and $ 61.8 billion, or 3.07% of GDP in 12 months, after approaching $ 80 billion in some months of 2017. [19659002] Foreign investors are more embarrbaded compared to the country: in May, they withdrew 6.4 billion dollars of investments in equities, mutual funds and fixed income securities. And, given the weight of these investors, stocks fell sharply last month, which persisted in June. Measured in reais, the net draw reached 10.3 billion reais on the stock market
The devaluation of the real caused changes in the international investment position (IIP). As explained by the Central Bank, "the designation of external liabilities in national currency involves the transfer of foreign exchange risk to the non-resident investor".
With reserves of $ 382 billion and an export recovery, as we have already noted in early June, the state of accounts in foreign currency does not inspire greater care . But it seems undeniable that external financing conditions tend to deteriorate only because of the Fed's rising interest rates and US protectionism. This may affect international trade, which has led to significant surpluses for Brazil
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