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SÃO PAULO – Even if it does not bring big surprises, every published election survey accompanies a magnifying glbad for the market, for bring signs (albeit minimal) of what to expect for October this year.
The CNI / Ibope research published Thursday (28) is an example. "Marina Silva can signal a relief to the market," he told InfoMoney consulting Barral M. Jorge, Lucas Fernandes. This is because, related to the margin of error with Jair Bolsonaro (PSL-RJ), the candidate should step up his approach to the business segments to reinforce his more centrist bias, although he is not the only one. he finds it difficult to form a strong coalition for the trial, he says.
According to the survey, Bolsonaro has 17% of the voting intentions, while Marina appears with 13%, in a technical link within the limit of the maximum error margin, of 2 percentage points towards up or down. Then they appear Ciro Gomes (PDT), with 8%, and Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB), with 6%. The tucano is technically tied with Álvaro Dias (Podemos), who has 3%, and former president Fernando Collor de Mello (PTC) – who has announced that he will not be a candidate – and the only one in the world. former São Paulo Mayor Fernando Haddad (PT), with 2% of voting intentions.
– Without Lula, Marina Silva technically links with Bolsonaro in the presidential race, shows CNI / Ibope
– Confidence with the Temer government goes from 8% to 6 Another factor that could be considered as a stimulant for the market is the indication that Ciro Gomes (PDT) can not capitalize on a good performance in the absence of Lula, being even considered the main left alternative to the PT (and raise investors' fears). In a scenario with the PT, Ciro has 4% of the voting intentions and, without him, the voting intentions go to 8%.
However, he argues, the most aligned candidates on the reformist program continue to "skid", like Alckmin and Henrique Meirelles (MDB), with 6% and 1% respectively in a scenario without Lula.
In that sense, Fernandes says, the number of voters who plan to cancel or vote in white (28% and 35%, respectively) is remarkable. "This is one of the reasons for Alckmin's growth, even though he was a highly respected governor in São Paulo."
But the toucan could do something to increase his candidacy, says the consultant. Alckmin is expected to take advantage of the launch of presidential candidate José Luiz Datena 's nomination to the Senate to impose himself as a pre – candidate to listen to the public' s desires on the public security agenda, as well as the public. a major concern of voters. "In addition, this double DEM-PSDB in São Paulo is indicative that both sides can also join the presidential race."
In any case, according to the political badyst of XP Investimentos, Richard Back, the toucan is definitely in need of a campaign to grow, since it continues with a rather significant difficulty of generating a fact policy. "For Backberg, Back pointed out that the big striking fact remains that of the large percentage that Lula keeps from the electorate even if he is imprisoned." In this simulation, the former president leads with 33% voting intentions, followed by Bolsonaro, with 15%.
Another important fact, he says, is that the electorate is still completely disconnected from the electoral process, but it sets a deadline for the definitions: "This is a movie that will change a lot in August.
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