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They both promised to balance the political elites and give priority to their country. Left-wing populism Andres Manuel Lpez Obrador, President-Elect of Mexico, will run up against that of US President Donald Trump?
With more than 53% of the votes cast, Lpez Obrador's victory on Sunday marks a break with the Mexican political system and opens a questioning of the crucial link with the northern neighbor, his main trading partner and home to 12 millions of Mexicans.
After months of tumultuous bilateral relations – with Trump insisting on lifting a border wall and maintaining a firm stance on issues of immigration, trade and security, and AMLO, like everyone else calls the Mexican politician. "
Trump's national security advisor," Falco "John Bolton, even said that his boss" looks forward "to a meeting with AMLO and that it could be very productive.
In addition to promising speculation, badysts consulted by AFP have identified some variables to take into account
– More Lula than Chvez –
AMLO, 64, arrives at the presidency in his third attempt and with a program of "radical change" , but his move should be more moderate than his heated electoral rhetoric.
"He will rule more like Lula in Brazil than Hugo Chvez in Venezuela," said economist and political scientist Mark Rosenberg of GeoQuant Consultancy [19659002] Jason Marczak, director of the Latin America center of the Atlantic Council, said: "AMLO no Chvez."
"Seeking to implement reforms Lloyd, who, like Lula, is also considered by his supporters as me a savior, but the economic context in which AMLO comes to power is very different from what Lula inherited. ",
Marczak insisted that" AMLO in the Mexican version of Trump "and that won by the weariness of the people with corruption, impunity and violence, and not by the rage attacks of the American president with all this "
" Washington can and should seize this moment to rebalance relations with Mexico, not only to maintain, but also to deepen cooperation that benefits both countries, "he said. AMLO, former mayor of Mexico City, has a lot in common with Trump, the 72-year-old real estate mogul.
"Both are nationalists who feel redemptive and should fight a corrupt and ineffective" establishment "and put their country's agenda first.This can make Trump see a twin soul in AMLO , and there is a space for understanding, although the possibility of a conflict is high, "said Juan Carlos Hidalgo of the Cato Institute
" If populist, enemies to survive politically. " At the same time, AMLO seems to understand that there is little to gain in a fight with the United States, "said Michael Shifter, chair of the Inter-American Dialogue Group.
19659002] – L & 39 NAFTA and Protectionism –
"AMLO said that he wanted to maintain NAFTA and security cooperation. (19659002) The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), in effect between the United States, Mexico, and Canada since the beginning of the nineteenth century, was the most sensitive and volatile issue of immigration. 1994, has been renegotiated since last August at the request of Trump, which considers it detrimental to the interests of Americans.
According to Rosenberg, protectionist motives can make negotiations more difficult to renew the NAFTA
Hidalgo agreed: "It is likely that the electoral promises of AMLO, such food self-sufficiency will further complicate renegotiation. "
"AMLO does not hesitate to put pressure on the United States when its demands do not go in the direction of its interests". 19659002] – The Return of the Ostrich –
For Washington, "the restoration of democracy" in Venezuela is a priority theme in the region.Mexico has played a key role up here, leading the Lima Group, a group of countries with the government of Nicols Maduro
"There is still great doubt about what AMLO will do," said Hidalgo. "About Venezuela, AMLO has avoided any kind of provocative statement," said Victoria Gaytan of the group of experts on the subject. in Global Americans' foreign policy, noting that one of AMLO's badistants, Hctor Vasconcelos, "supported an interventionist approach."
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