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A pandemic could lead to annual financial losses of 0.7% of global GDP ($ 570 billion) over the next few years, a threat similar to that caused by climate change.
Managing the risk and impact of infectious disease outbreaks in societies through public-private partnerships
Data come from a report of the World Institute Harvard Health Report published at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. )
Since 2011, the world has recorded an average of 200 outbreaks per year. The trend is to intensify due to increased trade, travel, population density, population displacement, deforestation and climate change.
The paper describes the commercial risk represented by this new era of epidemics, characterized by not only because of the increase in the number of events, but also because of their diversity (influenza, Ebola, zika, yellow fever, SARS, antibiotic-resistant bacteria, among others).
"Business leaders need to better understand the predictable costs of epidemics," said Vanessa Candeias, report coordinator and member of the executive committee of the World Economic Forum.
Using data from influenza pandemics of the twentieth century, the report estimated the impact on about $ 60 billion.
Already, the Ebola outbreak that occurred between 2014 and 2016 in West Africa would have cost $ 53 billion. And the epidemics of MERS (respiratory syndrome of the Middle East, a contagious and sometimes fatal respiratory disease) in 2015 in South Korea, plus $ 8.5 billion.
In Brazil, a Fiocruz survey estimated that the economic burden of conbad zika syndrome for Brazil over a ten-year period would be close to R $ 800 million.
Among other figures, public expenditure on Health and health care were taken into account, in addition to the cost. families. In the comparison of children with and without the syndrome, the first child had a year, 422% more visits to the doctor and 1,212% of consultations with other health professionals.
According to the World Bank, only 39% of economic losses are badociated with effects on infected individuals. Most of the costs are due to the change in behavior of healthy people seeking to avoid infection (for exams, vaccines and medicines, for example).
While predicting where and when the next outbreak will occur is always a science, it is possible to identify factors that make companies vulnerable to financial losses resulting from infectious diseases.
Geographical location of the workforce, customer base and supply chain, as well as the nature and structure of
"One of the threats is the disease and its uncertainty, the other is the fear of the disease itself or an uninformed panic. " As we have seen in past epidemics, health-related disinformation can spread as quickly as viruses to undermine or disrupt general medical intervention efforts, "says Peter Sands of the Institute. of Global Health and Harvard and executive director of the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria.
In his view, effective epidemic preparedness requires a reliable public-private partnership, especially in places where government capacity is limited by lack of resources, trust, and resources
"Businesses can help mitigate the potentially devastating human and economic impacts of epidemics while protecting the interests of their employees and their business operations. "
For Sands, when business leaders are more aware of the issues, maybe there will be a different dialogue on global health. "This is a topic that is rarely given much attention and is worth considering."
In addition to the report, the research team produced a prototype of Infectious Disease Risk for Business panel, allowing companies to view estimated cost estimates for their outbreak activities.
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