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The possibility of being traded for a robot or a computer program endangers 54% of formal jobs in the country, says an unpublished study done with Brazilian data
By 3026 at the latest, 30 million of places with a formal contract, if all companies decided to replace human workers with the technology already available – this number takes into account the trend of hiring for the most threatened professions.
Realized by the machine learning laboratory of finance and organizations of the University of Brasilia,
Considering workers having a formal contract at the end of 2017 (according to Rais, of the Ministry approximately 25 million (57.37%) were in positions with a very high probability (above). 80% automation) or high (60% to 80%).
Chemical Engineers (96%), Warehouse Loaders (77%) and Volleyball Referees (71%), for example.
In order to calculate the probability of automation in the next ten years, 69 academics and machine learning professionals were consulted (domain of artificial intelligence in which computers discover themselves solutions after badyzing their decisions). previous).
Based on the evaluations of these specialists, researchers used techniques for badyzing occupational descriptions to badociate risks.
The automatic learning potentiates automation because it allows to replace not only repetitive and mechanical tasks such as that of an attendant. or typist (over 99%).
The "tropicalization" of the study is a first step and the estimates still need to be refined and deepened, says UNB professor Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque.
And the probability of automation does not mean that, in practice, the human will lose its place. According to Albuquerque, one of the bottlenecks is that machine learning feeds on a rich source of quality data, rarely available to businesses in developing countries.
Another limit is economics. Virtual automations, such as implementing software to generate laboratory test reports, require far less investment than buying robots for a jet bleacher.
Even when the technology exists and is accessible, its replacement may not be feasible. . This is the case of one of the most endangered professions, the shorthand (probability of automation of 99.55%), which professionals use codes to annotate up to 120 words per minute, then "translated" into typed texts.
voice recognition would explain that. In fact, they make so many mistakes that verification takes longer than typing, says Emilia Naomi Todo Liem, director of 13 stenographers of the Legislative Assembly of São Paulo.
"In the future, if the number of hits increases, useful tool to avoid repetitive strain injuries.For the moment, this only makes you angry," she said.
Political pressures also have an influence. In 2018, Swiss Post planned to extinguish a tax that manually checks each parcel or letter and separates them according to the destination – what is called the sorting and transhipment operator (75 % risk, according to the study).
Automation, already used by competitors, was considered necessary to reduce costs and maintain competitiveness.
Striking workers, however, lobbied, and the position was maintained without delay. According to the company, this will happen when the 14,000 operators still in business withdraw or "migrate to other compatible activities".
In some cases, automation is successfully deployed, but jobs are maintained. Box operators, for example, are likely to be 77% replaced by machines.
According to David Grinberg, vice president of communication at Arcos Dorados (network owner), David Grinberg, technology requires the presence of employees to guide customers and 70% of them still prefer make purchases in the boxes.
"Attendants will always be needed because we know the importance of personal contact with the consumer."
Impact on workers is not always uniform. Accountants (49%) or lawyers (76%) perform easily automated functions (preparing reports, drafting petitions), but others do not clarify things with the judge or negotiate with other parties. ; agreements.
This is one of the points for which information is available. Sérgio Firpo, professor of economics at Insper, is studying the job market and automation.
The Brazilian clbadification lists only the necessary skills. For a more precise estimate, one would have to look at the time that professionals devote to each type of function, such as the American O * Net database.
This is the source used by economists Carl Frey and Michael Osborne to estimate that automation threatens 47% of jobs in the United States – a methodology that UNB has attempted to replicate.
Estimates of Brazilian reality can be even more precise and detailed, admits Pedro Albuquerque. The goal is to inform public policies and business decisions.
"Further badysis predicts a potential increase in unemployment in high-risk occupations and it is possible to reorient investments to train professionals to those with a low propensity for automation and increasing demand. . "
that involve creativity and human contact – babas, psychologists and artists are those who have almost no risk. Another area in which the demand for human workers is expected to grow in the future is precisely that of scientists and programmers related to artificial intelligence and machine learning.
The text to be discussed will be published in the coming weeks by Ipea. Applied Economics)
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