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Brazil has reached the bar of 208.4 million inhabitants in 2018, according to an estimate by the IBGE (Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics) published Wednesday (24). The data is a projection based on the 2010 Census demographic survey and show that Santa Catarina is the Brazilian state with the highest life expectancy, which will increase from 79.6 years in 2018 to 84.5 years in 2060. The Brazilian average is 76.2 in 2018 and 81 in 2060.
The current state population is 7,075,494 inhabitants and by 2060, it should rise to 9 015 090 inhabitants. By then, the Brazilian population will reach 228,286,347, or about 9.5% more than the current 208.4 million.
The migratory toll of Santa Catarina also has a positive impact on the survey, indicating that it is currently the third largest in the country. In 2018, the state gained 29 thousand inhabitants, behind only São Paulo (45.2 thousand) and Goiás (39.8 thousand). It is expected that in 2060 will continue to occupy third place in this scenario, although the net migration drops to 23 071.
Regarding the fertility rate, Santa Catarina is in eighth position with 1.74 children per woman. According to estimates, by 2060 this number is expected to fall to 1.68 by 2060. In Brazil, the rate is currently 1.77 and is expected to fall to 1.66 at present. 2060.
] The Brazilian population in 2018 saw an increase of 0.38% (or 800 thousand people) compared to the 2017 quota, while it was 207.6 million. However, the latest data show that the growth of the Brazilian population is slowing down. In other words, each year the population decreases less. From 2016 to 2017, growth was 1.6 million people, twice as many as during the transition from 2017 to 2018.
There are some reasons for slowing population growth. The main one is the reduction of the fertility rate. In addition, women become pregnant later and the relationship between older people and young people is declining.
IBGE estimates that the Brazilian population will continue to grow over the next 29 years, until 2047, by which time it is expected to reach 233.2 million inhabitants. In the following years, the institute estimates that the population will decline gradually to reach 228.3 million by 2060.
The institute has made a series of long-term projections. It is expected that by 2060 the population over 60 will have more than doubled to 32.1% of the total. This indicator in 2018 is 13.44%.
A contrary movement occurs in the population of children up to 14 years, which currently represents 21.3% of the total and that in 2060 will represent 14.7%. The comparison of these two indicators shows the aging of the population
In 2060, therefore, the country will have older people than children. If we compare them year after year, the changes are timid. In the longer term, however, the data leave no doubt. In 2060, a quarter (25%) of the population will be over 65, according to the institute.
According to the IBGE, Rio Grande do Sul is the state that will experience first and foremost a greater proportion of older people compared to children. This reversal will take place in 2029. Four years later, it will be the turn of Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais.
The South and Southeast States currently have older populations than those in the North and Northeast, for example.
The average age of the Brazilian population in 2018 is 32.6 years. The youngest state is Acre, with an average age population of 24.9 years.
Aging
The reason for general aging is that life expectancy has improved over the past decade, while fertility has declined steadily. Currently, the life expectancy at birth is 76.2 years. In 2060, it will be 81.
According to IBGE demographer Tadeu Oliveira, the reduction of fertility is badociated with an increase in the participation of women in the labor market. They have increasingly prioritized education or careers and postponed maternity. The technological evolution, which allows women to become pregnant later, also has an impact on the data.
In 2010, the average age at which Brazilian women became pregnant for the first time was 26.5 years. In 2018, the number is 27.1 years. In 2060, it will reach 28.8 years.
Currently, the fertility rate is 1.77 children per woman. In 2060, this number will be 1.66
By 2018, the country had 1.6 million more births than deaths (as of July 1, the reference date of the survey). Despite the higher life expectancy in 2060 compared to 2018, the relationship between births and deaths will be reversed in the future.
The country will have, in 2060, 736 more deaths than births, according to IBGE estimates, a fact that contributes to the aging of the population.
* According to information from Folhapress
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