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SÃO PAULO – The market has reduced the estimate of the basic interest rate at the end of 2019 from 7.50% to 7.25%, according to the weekly survey Focus of the Central Bank, published Monday.
For the years 2020 and 2021, the midpoint of the first half, the forecasts for the first half, the projections for the Selic are set at 8.00% for both economists in general and for the Top 5
IPCA
For official inflation in 2018, the median projections went from 3.71% to 3%, 69%. For 2019, the forecast for the general consumer price index (CPI) rose from 4.07% to 4.03%. The estimate went from 3.80% to 3.83% for the next 12 months.
Among the most predictive economists, the median of official inflation fell from 3.74% to 3.66%. in 2018 and from 4.10% to 3.96% in 2019.
The market also adjusted downward, for the seventh week in a row, the projection of the IPCA in December from 0.11% to 0.10%.
The Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) announced Friday that the previous official inflation (IPCA-15) had recorded a deflation of 0.16% in December.
GDP
The median of economic growth projections in 2018 remained stable for the second consecutive week at 1.30%, which, for the economists heard by Valor, should come closer to stability during the month. P In 2019, the average point of growth forecasts of the Brazilian economy was reduced from 2.55% to 2.53%.
Exchange Rates
to increase its stakes for the dollar for the fourth consecutive week end 2018, from R $ 3.83 to R $ 3.85. For 2019, median forecasts remained at R $ 3.80.
Of the top five positions, mid-term bets remained at R $ 3.85 at the end of 2018 and went from $ 3.70 to $ 3.80 in 2019.
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