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China's return to the US soybean market was one of the main factors of speculation in early 2019 and, along with the losses caused by the drought of the Brazilian crop, by the price rise of more than 1% during the first trading session of the year at the Chicago Stock Exchange.
According to information obtained by the international Bloomberg news agency, Chinese buyers operate in the United States and trade, seek information and prices, even through their companies. 39, state, such as Cofco. Operators linked to the transactions explain, without identifying themselves, that the volumes exchanged would be scheduled to be delivered between February and March.
"This was a good start for soybeans in 2019. Along with these new soybean operations bought by China in the United States, the problem of drought in Brazil remains," said Man Capital Markets, Chicago futures & futures contract chief Charlie Sernatinger at Bloomberg.
According to international badysts, this return of the Asian nation to US oilseeds is a reflection of a good evolution of negotiations between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, who will even come back to meet this month in Washington. After all, the two countries are in the 90-day truce period of the trade war put in place in early December after the last G20 meeting.
"The oil company opened the year with increases of about 1.3% of the main contracts negotiated
on Wednesday. (2) Even without confirmation from the US government, paralyzed by the political stalemate in the US United States
And the absence of these confirmations leaves the market with figures still recorded in the middle of last month, when they came down and below the market expectations.So, everything is still in the field of speculation, but strong speculation given the latest highs of commodity futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange.
Another sign that an agreement between the United States and China would be on the verge of a to be confirmed is confirmed, as explains Flávio França, head of cereal sector at Datagro, relates to premiums for Brazilian soybean.However, he says that the situation has not yet been resolved and also requires
"Prices are visibly underestimated: an agreement between the United States and China is defined, as if everything had been settled, but this is not the case", a- he declared. "They are not compatible with a commercial war condition … but it is not yet a fait accompli," he adds.
The new chapters of this dispute and the meeting scheduled for the two presidents should be the main drivers of prices from that moment, as they have been in recent months, but in a slightly more intense way. New information appears in the scenario that can pull the market out of this stability.
In addition, the return of China's purchases to the United States could accelerate, as the new South American crop arrives on the market and is even more competitive, given the larger volume, despite losses caused by drought in some Brazilian producing states.
"Since the beginning of the process, we say that it was impossible for China to spend the year without buying something from the American soybean, which has been confirmed by purchases of 3 to 4 million Tons (end of year) .But it is clear that China has the new Brazilian harvest and is counting on the fact that the harvest is coming sooner, "says France.
The Asian nation has already made good purchases in Brazil and is currently shipping this soybean to its warehouses, thus finalizing its activities. "Today, the Chinese are not on the market for new purchases, they will now receive the purchases they have already made here in Brazil at the end of the year," he said. -he adds.
Thus, he states that the needs of China are not so urgent at the present time and that they are facing a considerable stock in the United States and a good volume of the Brazilian harvest .
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