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SÃO PAULO – After a very positive start to the year, with investors being encouraged by the performance of the economy, Ibovespa broke a record of 87,652 points on February 26, the scenario has completely changed and the second quarter has not only wiped out all the good market performance, but reversed everything, the index closing half of the accumulated losses of 4.76%, while the dollar jumped 16 , 94%.
The outside did not help much, with major US indexes losing strength over the months, but some of the events that weighed the most on the Brazilian market occurred at the # 39, interior of the country, raising doubts about the domestic economist. is weakened. To make matters worse, the electoral race is starting to get stronger, which increases the uncertainty about the continuity of the reforms – which is practically dramatic given Brazil's fiscal situation.
Consult the Ibovespa and dollar performance charts and the 7
The year began with investors already excited by the judgment of former President Lula in the case of the triplex of Guarujá
<img src = "https://images.infomoney.com.br/uploads/mercados/semestre/ibov.jpg?1530299468459" alt = "Ibovespa
<img src =" https : //images.infomoney.com.br/uploads/mercados/semestre/ibov.jpg?1530299468459 "alt =". And on January 24, the conviction in second instance allowed – after some remedies – the arrest of the prisoner on April 7. With this decision, the situation of Lula, who is now trying to be the PT's candidate for the presidency, has been very complicated, but he can hardly continue in the conflict, precisely because of this. conviction.
Oil prices in the first half of 2018
The following month, the markets experienced a good optimistic movement at its peak, taking Ibovespa to its best level at the end of February. But as early as March, things began to change and, despite a good period of stability for the index, an outside event slowly began to weigh on Wall Street and pull Brazil too.
On March 8, President Donald Trump announced the surtax for steel and aluminum sparking a trade war that has so far put pressure on the markets scholars from around the world. The announcement itself has not had a major effect on the market, but it is from that moment that North American indices have begun a correction movement, the Treasury bills rising sharply, which also took the good mood of the Brazilians for at least two months
It was then that a sequence of 3 major events completely fueled the Ibovespa and the dollar. The first was the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) of May 16, which surprised to keep the Selic at 6.50% per annum. The decision led to a strong market rebuilding movement, knocking out future interest rates, which ultimately pulled the stock market and raised the dollar to a high level.
A week later, the truckers strike began which stopped Brazil and opened a very bad fiscal situation and led many people to project a very bad economic impact of the status quo . The case also marked a serious political crisis, showing a government that no longer has bargaining power, still raising debate on the elections, since the next president has more and more obligation to make reforms to improve the country.
In order to complete the chaotic month of May, as soon as the strike was confirmed, the president of Petrobras, Pedro Parente, resigned from the state company, which made his shares one of the largest shares in Ibovespa portfolio – to flow. Although his replacement, Ivan Monteiro, pleased investors, the month of June was followed by heavy losses for newspapers.
It is also worth mentioning a specific exchange event, which began shortly after the surprising May Copom. the conflict between the Central Bank and the market . Since that day, in the face of the dollar rush (too much driven by external factors), the central bank has raised so-called "swap" bids, prompting investors to question these daily acts of authority. . Since then, the US currency has seen many movements up and down, but still following an upward trend.
Finally, without a specific event, the polls also worsen the situation. Brazilian scenario, faced with a reading of the force by the deputy Jair Bolsonaro (still with reservations on the market), but mainly because of the absence of a reformist candidate who has a chance to win. The "chosen" market, Geraldo Alckmin, does not take off in the polls, which increases the uncertainties.
We see that the good mood that dictated the tone of the market at the beginning of the year has been completely ignored and now the political uncertainties, the external pressure and the very fragile economic framework of the country take up the feeling of investors, which does not seem to change in the months to come.
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