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At precisely 9:22 pm, Brasilia time, summer 2018/2019 will begin in the southern hemisphere, which announces warmer and more rainy than the previous one. According to the forecasts of the Meteorological Prediction and Climate Studies Center of the National Institute of Space Research (CPTEC-Inpe) and the National Institute of Meteorology of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supplies (Inmet -Map), average temperature
According to climate scientist Alice Macedo of the CPTEC Climate Prediction Group, the explanation for this phenomenon lies in the occurrence of phenomena that occur between December, January and February. El Niño, which will also bring about changes in rainfall patterns in much of the country.
"Although this time, it is rated of low to moderate intensity, it is characteristic of increasing the temperature of Brazil," he explains. "El Niño also helps to increase rainfall in some areas and decrease in others."
El Niño – ENSO (Southern Oscillation), its full name, is a natural phenomenon that occurs at irregular intervals and can range from 2 to 7 years, lasting from six to 18 months. It is due to the excessive warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean at the height of the equator, between the western shores of South America and eastern Oceania.
The result is felt all over the world, with droughts being more intense in some regions, such as Australia, the Philippines, Ecuador, and the northern and northeastern regions of Brazil, as well as only torrential rains and floods in other areas, such as in the south.
In addition, summers and springs may be warmer in areas such as southeastern Brazil and the most intense winters in other regions, such as Europe, hurricanes more moderate from the Atlantic and cyclones. strong in the Pacific. The last El Niño occurred between the end of 2015 and the beginning of 2016 and was one of the most intense ever recorded, since the phenomenon began to be monitored in 1950.
El Niño Signs [BacktothelistInmetpublisheditssummerweatherforecasttheforecastfortheseasonbeginningFridayAccordingtotheInstitutetheriseinseasurfacetemperatureintheequatorialPacificOceanbeganlateJunewiththeexceptionoftheregionclosesttoSouthAmericathatistosaythatthemostcentralpartofthisoceanhasbeenwarmerinrecentmonths
During the first weeks of November, however, there was an expansio n water with higher temperatures throughout the equatorial Pacific, indicating the appearance of El Niño.
Still according to the technical note of Inmet. most of the dynamic and statistical models generated by major international meteorological centers indicate a probability of occurrence of more than 96% of a new El Niño. This means that it is almost certain that the summer that begins will be influenced by the phenomenon.
In addition to El Niño, other factors could also affect precipitation in the country, according to Inmet. Among them are the surface temperature of the southwestern Atlantic Ocean, on the coast of Argentina and Uruguay – above average – and the subtropical Atlantic, near the northeast coast.
The North Atlantic Ocean, meanwhile, will move from a warm phase to a cold region, a phenomenon called Atlantic Multidisciplinary Oscillation (AMO), which could increase precipitation in the northeast over the course of months and months. coming years [19659007] Regional characteristics
The Inmet forecasts also indicate that temperatures will be above the summer averages in the five regions of the country, with some differences between states.
In the northeast, for example, they will be highest in Maranhão, central and southern Piauí, south of Ceará and west of Pernambuco. In the Midwest, it will be warmer in Mato Grosso do Sul, north of Mato Grosso and south of Goiás, in the southeast, with temperatures expected to be normal to normal across the region.
In the case of the southern region, they should be slightly above average in most of the region, with the exception of southern Rio Grande do Sul, where they can stay within normal limits.
Inmet indicates that the variation will be greater than the temperatures between regions. One of the most pronounced will occur in the northern region, where there will be areas with higher than normal or below normal precipitation. They are expected to be higher than average in Tocantins, most of Amapá and Roraima, west and south of Pará and south of Acre and Rondônia. In the Amazon, it is expected to rain a little less than usual, with the exception of the eastern part of the state.
Forecasts for the northeast indicate that there will be a predominance of areas with a higher probability of above-average rainfall in Bahia, Alagoas coast of Rio Grande do Norte and south of Piauí and Maranhão. In the others, the rains will be near normal or slightly lower. In the Midwest, rainfall is expected to remain in the usual region or slightly above all except in the south of Mato Grosso do Sul, where it will be closer to the mean or a little less than the average.
In the case of the Southeast region, precipitation for the next three months is precipitation ranging from normal to slightly greater than most of Minas Gerais, in north-central Espírito Santo and from downtown São Paulo. In Rio de Janeiro, they should be below average. Storms, normal during the summer in the area, are not excluded. In the southern region, it is expected to rain more than usual in southern, central and western Rio Grande do Sul, east of Santa Catarina and north of Paraná. In other areas precipitation will be average or slightly lower than
. Forecasters can not badociate these warm, rainy summer forecasts with climate change and global warming. "To badociate an isolated summer with these phenomena is very complicated," explains Priscila Pereira Coltri, badociate director of the Center for Meteorology and Climatic Events Applied to Agriculture (Cepagri) of the State University. from Campinas (Unicamp).
"Although one of the models described for climate change is more extreme extreme events, we can not scientifically say that this summer will happen in one way or another because of global climate change studies. "
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