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SÃO PAULO – The pension reform proposal has been faithful to the balance of the Brazilian financial market and is expected to continue at this pace this week. Abroad, the Brexit and the American Closure, which is already the most important in history, get the limelight and can weigh in the mood here.
Another important issue that the Minister of the Interior, Onyx Lorenzoni, confirmed for next week is the decree facilitating the acquisition and possession of weapons by ordinary citizens, l & # 39; 39, one of the main promises of Jair Bolsonaro's election campaign.
See what to watch on Monday (14):
1. Global Stock Exchanges
Asian stock indexes closed and investors had a negative impact on China's trade balance data. Imports and exports unexpectedly fell 4.4% and 7.6%, respectively, from the largest monthly decline in two years. Yet, in full trade war, China's trade surplus against the United States rose by 17%.
China's figures fear that they are not merely the mirror of commercial transactions, but that they tend to persist, their decline being linked to slowing global economic growth and trade war unresolved.
US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the next round of trade talks with China is expected in January, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is expected to lead
Disappointment over numbers Chinese is also affecting European stock markets, which are retreating, with a focus on Pandora shares, which tumble up to 7% after Morgan Stanley has cut equity prices. target of the company.
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Brexit fears also weigh in the mood of investors. The agreement proposed by British Prime Minister Theresa May is to be voted in Parliament on Tuesday (15). A big defeat is to be expected, critics from all sides – the opposition and the pro-Europeans calling for a new referendum – and the proposed agreement is unpopular.
Future Wall Street indexes are also down sharply due to concerns over Brexit, closing and slowing economies, as evidenced by the Chinese trade balance.
The closing of the United States government, called "Closure," arrived Monday (14) at its 24th day, becoming the largest in the country's history.
The problem comes from the fact that President Donald Trump wants a project providing for the allocation of more than $ 5 billion to finance the construction of the wall between Mexico and the US budget. On the other hand, the Democrats do not accept this expense and defend that it is necessary to strengthen the security of the border and not to build wall.
Trump hit the foot and said he was already prepared for the break to last for months or even years. if needed. On the other hand, Democrats are equally adamant about the budget, which means that the closure may last a bit
The fact is that this has more and more repercussions on the US economy. On Wednesday, the rating agency Fitch announced that it could even lower the AAA American rating if the problem went too far.
Oil prices fall below $ 60, echoing weak Chinese data. The second day of decline is also related to uncertainties related to the reduction in OPEC production in order to offset the rise suffered in the United States.
Dow Jones Futuro (US) -0.83%
Dow Jones Futuro (United States) -0.83%
See market performance, 19659016] * NASDAQ Futuro (USA) -0, 99%
* DAX (Germany) -0.59%
* FTSE (United Kingdom) -0.51%
* CAC- (China) -0.69%
* FTSE MIB (Italy) -0.97%
* Hang Seng (Hong Kong) -1.38% (closed)
* Shanghai (China) -0.71% (closed)
* Nikkei (Japan) + 0.97% (closed)
* WTI Oil -1.22%, to US $ 50.96 per barrel
* Crude Oil -1.31%, 59.69 USD per barrel
* Bitcoin 3 544 USD – 0.00%
13 448 R $ -2.23% (in the course of the past 24 hours)
* Future contracts for iron ore traded on the Chinese stock exchange in Dalian + 0, 98%, at 513.00 yuan (in the last 24 hours)
2. The pension reform proposal that should be presented to President Jair Bolsonaro is expected to generate in 10 years an economy superior to the original text presented by President Michel Temer in Congress at the end of 2016, calculated in [8023billionpoundsdependingontheJournalofEconomicEquivalencybutcbadsobeadjustedtotheextentthatthenextweekwhenthechangenegotiatedwiththeFrenchwillbetransferredtoBolsonaro
The proposal being finalized is closer to the idea presented by the group. coordinated by the former President of the Central Bank, Armínio Fraga, also taking into account the text of Temer approved by the Special Committee of the House in 2017. Other proposals are also under study in the construction of the text to present to the president.
No. In the middle of the road, several categories lobbied for reform to be treated differently, with an emphasis on the military. Given that the category is responsible for large pension deficits, an exception for these professionals will displease the market and open gaps so that other sectors can impose different rules for their pensions.
3. Economic Diary of the Week
On the domestic scene, the week announces calm. The highest point is IBC-Br (central bank activity index), considered as an overview of GDP, which, according to GO Associados, is expected to show a slight increase of 0.2% over the course of the year. month,
Abroad, the big event will take place on Tuesday (15) in the United Kingdom, with the vote on the Brexit agreement leaving the United Kingdom of the European Union. Prime Minister Thereza May is already negotiating with Parliament a plan B for the high risk that the current plan will be defeated.
In recent days, there has even been speculation on the market that the final release, scheduled for 29 (19459010) a number of indicators
will begin Monday (7), with data on trade in the euro area and orders to the industry in Germany, an important antecedent indicator of the performance of the main economy of the continent. The country still presents the figures of industrial production Tuesday, in addition to the trade balance, which will also publish its data on the European Union.
Discussions between the United States and China also deserve to be monitored. Commercial War . On the Asian giant, the week also tells Tuesday the figures of the trade balance of December, the producer price indices and the production and data of GDP of the fourth quarter of 2018.
Click here to view the full program of indicators.
4. New politics
The week must be marked by provisional measures and decrees, Jair Bolsonaro showing the strength of his pen, as he had already warned during his election campaign.
The president must sign an interim measure to reduce social security losses from 17 billion to 20 billion rand until December. The Special Secretary for Social Security and Labor, Rogério Marinho, met last week with the Ministers of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, and Onyx Lorenzoni, from the civil household, to discuss the text that promises to lift the siege social security benefits. 19659007] Bolsonaro must also sign a decree regarding the facilitation of the possession of weapons in the country. Facilitating citizens' access to the firearm was one of Bolsonaro's main proposals during the election campaign.
Both proposals have spent the last days in a final adjustment phase by government technical staff and will reach the Bolsonaro table this week.
Politicians who spoke to the Minister of the Economy, Paulo Guedes, about the pension reform the O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper warned that the government would succeed in this business that he found the means of dialogue with the Congress.
Once the promise of Bolsonaro is to abandon the take, give, which is the exchange of votes by positions and the publication of amendments, what will be the model of negotiation of the government with members of Congress? A senator who was with Guedes sums it up: until the new path is discovered, everyone will stay by his side.
One of the ways the government does not want to be held hostage by Congress is to seek the support of the people. The idea is to take advantage of the president's notoriety in social networks to convince voters to instruct congressmen to vote on proposals.
5. Petrobras obtained the reinstatement of a presidential decree facilitating the sale of badets, which could help advance the plans of President Roberto Castello Branco to increase the profits of the Oil company.
] On December 19, STF President Dias Toffoli rescinded an injunction suspending the decision of former President Michel Temer to authorize sales outside the oil fields. The previous decision of the Minister Marco Aurelio Mello, at the request of the Workers' Party, had declared that the Congress should legislate on the offers and contracts of Petrobras.
The Plenary Court will rule on the case on February 27, according to the statement. with a declaration of the Supreme Court.
Still in the state radar, Petrobras increased the price of diesel in refineries by 2.49% last Friday (11), rising from 1,999 R to 1 R, 94,84.
> > The board of directors of Embraer held a special meeting on Friday (1) and authorized the board of directors of the company to take all the necessary measures to continue the consolidation of companies with Boeing. The authorization granted provides, after approval by the shareholders, for the transfer to the new company of Embraer's "net badets", consisting of badets, liabilities, badets, rights and obligations related to the Brazilian Business Aviation unit.
>> Henrique Meirelles, Secretary of State for Finance of São Paulo, said Friday that he planned to conclude in 2019 the capitalization or privatization of Sabesp . According to Meirelles, a possible privatization of Sabesp should bring more than 10 billion rand to the privatization of water and sanitation, according to Meirelles. Government of São Paulo. "If it's a privatization [o volume da operação será de] probably two figures," he said. In the case of capitalization, the amount raised could reach R5 billion.
>> Hi The board of directors approved the issuance of shares of 1.90 billion rands in shares to increase the capital of the company. . The shares of Usiminas previously clbadified as "outperforming", were downgraded to become "performing on the markets" by Itaú BBA badysts. The target price was raised from R $ 11 to R $ 12, which represents a potential increase of 18% over the last closing.
>> Itaú BBA started the cover of Hapvida with the recommendation of "outperformance" and a target price of $ 37 per share, which implies an increase of 18%.
>> Credit Suisse badysts improved MRV records from "neutral" to "outperforming", raising the target price from R $ 12.80 to R $ 17.50 "[19659058] "Two main factors lead us to believe that its strong growth rate will continue: (i) persistent gains in market share relative to its competitors; and (ii) the potential for recovery of the private partner base in health, particularly in the business segment. In addition, we believe that Hapvida could benefit from a valuation premium because of its clear position as a consolidator of the sector. "
>> Credit Suisse has also gone from" outperforming "to" neutral "the recommendation of Tenda's papers while the target price has gone from R $ 34 to $ 39. R $, which implies a potential maximum of 15%.
>> Bradesco will reduce the number of vice presidents from 6 to 4 years, the changes will be announced today. new vice-presidencies will focus on the retail, wholesale, high-income, operations and technology segments.
According to the Estado de S. Paulo newspaper, the changes are intended to Bradesco to recover the country's second-most profitable bank among major retail institutions
>> Sanepar's Board decided to dismiss the company's president and its directors from count this Monday and elected Cláudio Stabile as Director General. With this decision, the positions of CFO and two other boards remain vacant for 30 days or until the election
>> According to the newspaper Valor Econômico, the Ministry of Agriculture has suspended the activities of the slaughterhouse. from Seara Alimentos, a subsidiary of JBS in Itapetininga (SP). The reason has not been disclosed yet. According to the company, activities should resume in the coming days.
>> BR Distribuidora received part of the negotiations with Eletrobras and its distributors for R $ 53.1 million. To date, the Company has already received $ 1.66 billion of debt instruments.
>> BR Properties has announced the sale of three commercial properties located in the states of Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro to the UBS (BR) Offiice real estate fund. According to the company, the total amount amounts to R $ 394 million, which will be paid when the conditions are met.
"We see the positive announcement for BR Properties because we are calculating a stabilized exit rate of 8.6% for the transaction.In addition, the agreement, if it was confirmed , would emphasize the BR Properties portfolio rotation strategy and help the company to take charge. "
>> Cyrela recorded in the fourth quarter, a 94.6% increase in net sales by compared to the same period of the previous year. The company closed the quarter with a launch volume of R $ 2.71 billion, or 113.1% more than in the fourth quarter of 2017. Sales reached R $ 5.06 billion. $, 55.1% higher than the same period of the previous year.
According to Itaú BBA, solid results and good news for society. "We recognize that the company has a decent space for capital reductions and that strong operational performance could lead to some upward revisions to the estimates, but we maintain our more neutral position on this role, which is based on an unattractive IRR, Cyrela's dividends at current prices, and the fact that the company's current valuation already incorporates a strong recovery in future earnings, "write the badysts.
>> Cade approved without restriction the purchase of a tranche in four issuers for Taesa Invest with the help of the best advice in Brazil:
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(With Agência Estado and Agência Brasil)
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