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SÃO PAULO – A truce in the US-China trade war agreed at the G-20 over the weekend brings a wave of optimism to international markets. Global equities are trading at a bullish pace and the commodities market is also expected to boost Ibovespa in early December.
It is worth remembering that the index returned to new historic highs last week and flirted with 90,000 points at the close. Also Monday (3), B3 will publish the first preview of the Ibovespa.
To watch out for: the US stock markets will be closed on Wednesday (5), the day of national mourning, as the tradition in the country goes, following the death of former President George H. W. Bush. The last time this happened, it was January 2, 2007, following the pbading of former President Gerald Ford.
1. Global Stocks
Asian stock markets fell sharply on Monday after US presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping of China entered into a truce in the trade war between countries.
The temporary break between China and the United States also has a positive influence on business in Europe, where trade supports gains of more than 2%.
Performance is also positive in the commodity market, with iron ore rising nearly 2% and oil more than 4%, after the input recorded the worst week of the late November in the last ten years. As for oil, the peak after the worst week of the decade also occurs after the leaders of Russia and Saudi Arabia, also meeting at the G-20, expanded their price control pact on the market – although the two countries have not yet confirmed further cuts in production.
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* Dow Jones Futuro (United States) + 2, Dow Jones Futuro (United States) (FTSE (United Kingdom) + 2, 15%
* CAC-40)
* Nasdaq Futuro (United States) + 2.63%
* DAX (Germany) FTSE MIB (Italy) + 2.14%
* Hang Seng (Hong Kong) + 2.55% (closed)
* Shanghai (China) + 2.00% * WTI Oil + 4.69%, at US $ 53.32 a barrel
* Oil Brent + 4 (19659006) * Nikkei (Japan) + 1.00% (closed)
27% to 62 dollars a barrel
* Bitcoin $ 3,983.88 -4.04%
15 1500 -3 , 14% (last 24 hours)
* Future Iron Ore Contracts listed on the Chinese Stock Exchange in Dalian + 1.76%, at 463.00 Yuan (in the last 24 hours)
2. Economic Diary of the Week
In search of additional clues about the direction to take in the United States, investors will closely follow the disclosure of US labor market data . On Wednesday (5) will be known the figures of the ADP, indicator that measures the number of non-rural workers currently employed. The data is a kind of preview of the monthly labor market report, which will be released Friday (7).
According to Rosenberg Associados estimates, the US economy should have maintained the unemployment rate at 3.7% in November – the lowest level in nearly five decades. The pace of job creation continues with an average of 200,000 over 12 months. Rosenberg estimates that 205,000 jobs were created in November, up from 250,000 in October
. Wage inflation was below the level observed before the 2008 crisis, despite the acceleration seen in recent months. should show an increase of 0.3% in value per hour worked compared to 0.2% the previous month.
On the national scene, pay attention to the industrial production in October, Monday (3), and the production of vehicles in November, released Thursday (6) The IPCA (November National Consumer Price Index) will be released on Friday (7) and will be released by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers. with a deflation of 0.13% over the month and an inflation of 4.13% on the accumulated index of the last 12 months, says Rosenberg
. China and the United States
Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Junping have agreed not to impose additional tariffs on their exports, creating a truce in the weeks-long trade war that has put pressure on Financial Markets
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With the G20 agreement reached this weekend in Argentina, the United States suspended tariff increases of up to 25% of the $ 200 billion worth of Chinese goods that would come into force on 1 of January. On the other hand, China is committed to increasing its purchases in the North American market of agricultural, energy and industrial products.
The break will last 90 days, during which China and the United States will try to resolve their trade disputes in new negotiations. The White House has also indicated that countries will be negotiating in the coming weeks negotiations including trade, technology transfer, intellectual property, non-tariff barriers, computer theft and agriculture.
If they do not reach a trade agreement within 90 days, countries agree to raise the US tax rate on Chinese products from 10% to 25%.
4. New Politics
The choice of ministers and the model of political articulation adopted by President-elect Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) should lead the next government to join an unstable coalition in Congress, reports Folha de S. Paulo . Half of the country's major parties say they intend to work with the president-elect, but only three of the 15 largest abbreviations in the House of Representatives are willing to formally integrate the ruling base.
Relations between these parties and the new government indicate that Bolsonaro will have a lean core of political support. To approve projects that interest him, the president-elect will also rely on sympathetic acronyms on his agenda, but remaining in distant orbit.
Folha's team of rapporteurs consulted with presidents, leaders and leaders of the 15 largest parties in the House. In addition to the Bolsonaro PSL, only DEM and PTB discussed a formal membership in the allied base of the next government.
Paulo Guedes canceled a trip he would make to Europe this week for health reasons, according to Folha de S.Paulo. Jair Bolsonaro's future economics minister is feverish and has a high fever and should rest to treat an infection.
5. JBS plans to resume acquisitions and open the company's capital in the United States. According to the O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper, after selling several badets aimed at reducing debt over the past 18 months, the company has reviewed the acquisitions, this time complementary to its sector of activity. Suzano offers his customers the opportunity to reduce the price of pulp in 2019. According to the president of the company, Walter Schalka, who spoke with Valor Econômico, the objective is to offer a greater predictability of the price after closing the merger with Fibria and locks the values in the current reference price, including with a fixed discount. BB Seguridade finalized the sale of an interest in a joint venture in Mapfre. The company's conclusion is to generate capital requirements of R $ 2.1 billion, which can be distributed to shareholders. Cemig acquired last Friday (30) all the ordinary shares of Rio Minas Energia (RME), shareholder of Light, held by BB – Banco de Investimento BV Financeira and Santander Brasil. According to a relevant fact, the company paid R $ 659.4 million for the shares of RME ON and repaid all its liabilities to the banks. Petrobras waived Friday with validity for last Saturday, the average price of a liter of petrol A without tribute to refineries of 2.21%, to 1.5339 R $. The diesel price, meanwhile, remains at R $ 1.7984 until December 15, according to the chart available on the company's website.
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According to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels, petrol sales in Brazil decreased by 13.75% in October compared with the same period from last year. Volume reached 3.05 million cubic meters – the lowest level recorded in the last five years for the seventh consecutive month, due to a loss of competitiveness of hydrated ethanol pumps.
Still on the radar of Petrobras, the US public company, provided a payment of $ 500 million with Bank of America expiring in 2023 and $ 850 million with Intesa Sanpaolo, which would expire in 2022. In a statement, the company also announced that BlackRock had increased its stake in the state-owned company by 5% of the shares of PN, "qualifying as holder of a corresponding stake in the share capital of the company ". BR Distribuidora approved the distribution of an advance payment to shareholders in the form of interest on own capital (JCP) for the year 2018, a gross amount of R $. 563,795,476.5, corresponding to R $ 0.48394461502. The payment will be made on April 30, 2019, on the basis of the equity interest of December 11, 2018. Marfrig completed the sale of its Keystone Foods subsidiary to Tyson Foods for $ 1.4 billion dollars. With this sale, Marfrig pursues its strategy focused on the global beef market and reduces its level of financial debt.
Still on the Marfrig radar, the company made an offer for the BRF livestock segment in Argentina and for the production of hamburgers in Brazil. According to this proposal, Marfrig would provide a hamburger to the BRF. According to Valor Econômico, the proposal was well received by the BRF, but the transaction was not yet closed. Santander Brazil issued a new Letters of Guarantee of Real Property (LIG). of an amount of 153 million rand. The transactions have a duration of three years, without liquidity. Also in November, Santander had already issued two LIGs, worth R $ 24 million.
Usiminas will perform from today a scheduled stop at eleven days of the month. 3 Ipatinga (MG) furnace, to carry out repairs inside the equipment in order to maintain the safety and production levels in service, as well as the improvement of the refrigeration system. According to the newspaper Valor Econômico, the works will cost 55 million dollars.
According to Lauro Jardim's column, the journal O Globo, one of the targets of Jair Bolsonaro's government privatization program should be at BBDTVM . The company is the leading investment fund manager in Brazil, with equity of around 1,000 trillion rubles.
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