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(Marcelo Camargo / Agencia Brazil)
SÃO PAULO – After falling 3.74% of the trading session on the eve of the worst commercial transactions since the truckers' strike, the Ibovespa should divide its attention between the signal of the President of the House Rodrigo Maia, He will give priority to the possibility of considering Petrobras' quarterly dividends and the information that Vale was aware of the problems badociated with the Brumadinho dam siren, an element that could have contributed to evacuation and save lives.
Still on the radar of investors, the defense of the Monetary Policy Committee (CIMP) "caution, serenity and perseverance" for future decisions weakens the chances of interest rate cuts in the coming months. Yesterday, the Selic is held at 6.50%, as expected.
See what to watch this Thursday (7):
1. Global Stock Exchanges
The US futures index suggests a slight easing. European stock markets are trading mostly with a slight dip in the middle of the earnings season.
Asian stock markets found themselves without a clear direction. They dropped in Japan and high in Australia waiting for news of the trade war between China and the United States. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he was heading to China next week for other meetings.
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It should be remembered that stock exchanges in China and Hong Kong remain closed during this week because of the Lunar New Year. Meanwhile, on the foreign exchange market, the dollar is rising against other currencies after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell drew a brief but positive badessment of the US economy.
Oil prices are down while a record production remains in the United States. Iron ore reached its highest level in nearly two years as investors weighed Vale's growing crisis with speculation that the market would face a substantial loss of supply in the face of fears that the shock could lead other mining companies to increase their production.
* Dow Jones Futuro (US) -0.17%
* Dow Jones Futuro (US) -0.17%
* Dow Jones Futuro (US) -0.17%
(FTSE (United Kingdom) + 0.06%
* CAC-40)
* Nasdaq Futuro (United States) -0.21%
* DAX (Germany) -0.53%
(France) -0.32%
* FTSE MIB (Italy) + 0.10%
* Nikkei (Japan) -0.59% (closed)
* Oil WTI + 0.15% at 54.09 USD per barrel
* Crude oil + 0.02%, at 62.69 USD per barrel
* Bitcoin 3,373 USD + 0.17%
12,590 USD + 0.17% ( in the last 24 hours)
2. Social Security Reform
Mayor Rodrigo Maia (DEM) reiterated last night at GloboNews that the vote on social security reform would be given priority in the plenary session of the House. According to the parliamentarian, the crime prevention project presented by the Minister of Justice, Sérgio Moro, could concern the committees of the House as well as the reform, but he felt that the debate on the security project is "longer ".
The mayor also reaffirmed that the social security reform should follow the traditional rite of the CEP (proposal to amend the Constitution), namely: noting that the deadline is sufficient for the government to organize its base and convene enough voice for text approval as well as for restoring the health of President Jair Bolsonaro, hospitalized after surgery for removal of the colostomy bag. The conclusion of the text of the reform depends on the publication of the president and there is still no estimate on this subject.
The referral of a new PEC proposal is precisely what worries the financial market because it does not take advantage of the government text. Michel Temer, ready to go to the polls, should delay the project by a few months.
The government's reform proposal will include a new work regime. According to the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, if the draft constitutional amendment is approved, the two systems will coexist on the labor market: the new, unconstitutional, deregulated and with a greater number of jobs;
According to the minister, "young people will have the opportunity to choose" the old regime with "many rights and few jobs" or the new one, which would have fewer rights. and more jobs.
On the other hand, Maia said in the interview that it was the "last" chance for Congress to approve social security reform without suppressing the rights of the people [19659030]. Economic Agenda
In the middle of an agenda, the corporate earnings season for the fourth quarter of 2018 remains strong. Lojas Renner (LREN3) is also called Thursday (7) after the close of trading, in addition to Klabin (KLBN11), which presents the same day its financial result, but this time before the start of activities in B3.
In the United States, PCE price indexes, fourth-quarter personal income and expenditure data, and unemployment insurance claims are published. Mark Carney, president of the Bank of England, speaks at a press conference in London at 10:30 pm, following a decision by the Bank of England at 22:00. In the United States, Robert Kaplan, Richard Clarida and James Bullard of the Federal Reserve speak throughout the day.
Click here to see the full program of indicators. New Politics
The Ministry of Infrastructure will send Congress a bill creating the ANT (National Agency of Transport), a kind of super agency for infrastructure, according to the Folha de S. Paulo newspaper . It will be formed by the junction of the ANTT (land transport regulation) and Antaq (port terminals), both directors involved in corruption projects and favoring businesses. In an interview with Folha, the Minister of Infrastructure, Tarcisio Freitas, said that there would be only five directors.
The government economic team is studying the possibility of creating a new business contribution to the financing of the INSS. current payroll recovery of 20%, considered too high. This would be a way to lighten the corporate tax burden, promised by the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, in his possession.
The government also plans to ease the wage cuts for low-income workers and study the reduction. the minimum rate applied in the INSS, from 8% to 7.5% and increasing for those who earn more, from 11% currently to 14% maximum.
5. >> An e-mail exchange between professionals from Vale and two companies related to the safety of the Brumadinho dam shows that, two days before the break, Vale had already identified problems in the sensor data responsible for monitoring the structure. The emails were identified by the Federal Police and the information was obtained by the G1. In addition, [196459011] Vale suspended its operations on the Laranjeiras dam at the Brucutu mine (located approximately 100 kilometers from Belo Horizonte). and the Jangada mine, located in the same area as the Córrego do Feijão mine in Brumadinho, following a decision by the State Secretariat for the Environment and Sustainable Development of Minas Gerais. suspend the provisional operating license of the first and the operating license of the second.
Still about the tragedy, Vale asks for more time to badyze the text of the TAP. Preliminary Adjustment), which sets out obligations for the adoption of emergency and remedial measures for damage caused by the Brumadinho Dam (MG) Dam. TAP was offered to the minor at a hearing yesterday before the 6th Court of the Treasury and the municipalities of the Comarca of Belo Horizonte. Another hearing was scheduled for February 14.
Also at the hearing, the justice of Minas Gerais ordered the transfer, urgently, to the government of Minas Gerais of an amount of 13.44 million rand to cover the amounts spent until To now by the state executive with emergency measures.
In the scenario of accumulation of uncertainty, Vale's ADRs were downgraded to equal weight by Morgan Stanley, the target price being revised. Credit Suisse has reduced its price target from $ 3 to $ 15.50.
"We still outperform, we still see an increase of 28%, but we think the next few weeks could bring more bad news, increase the volatility of paper and reduce the appetite of investors", said badysts at the Swiss bank.
>> BRF entered into an agreement with Tyson International Holding Co. setting out the conditions for the sale of 100% of the shares held by BRF in food processing and slaughtering units poultry located in Europe and Thailand. According to an important fact revealed on Thursday morning 7, the deal was worth $ 340 million worth of business.
According to the company, the conclusion of the activity is still waiting for the verification of certain conditions precedent. , including regulatory approval
The transaction, the BRF says, is part of the company's operational and financial restructuring plan for which it intends to raise approximately R $ 4.1 billion. With the sale, the Company estimates that the adjusted net debt / EBITDA ratio will be approximately 5 times in the fourth quarter of 2018, including pro forma effects. of the badet sale already announced and reaching 3.65 times in the fourth quarter of 2019, "which represents a period of six months to reach the objectives announced in June 2018," the company concludes.
>> The President of Petrobras Roberto Castello Branco, said that the company had the intention to re-evaluate the current policy of quarterly dividend payment, approved in April of the year last. "Let's review this," said the executive during an interview with Valor Econômico. He said that, at the time he undertakes deleveraging efforts, the company sees no possibility of a more aggressive dividend distribution policy.
Do not wait for social security.
Castello Branco also stated that he hoped to arrive at the end of the month with an agreement with the government on negotiating this onerous task. Under this contract, in 2010, the union gave Petrobras the right to produce up to 5 billion barrels of pre-salt as part of the company's capitalization. The agreement between the parties should allow auctioning of the surplus of the expensive disposal (volumes not covered above 5 billion barrels). According to the state CEO, the auction is expected to take place by the end of the year.
The state is also considering breaking contracts signed under previous governments, mainly with major theater and film groups and the professional press. In the new direction, money should go to social networks and lesser known artists, according to the O Estado de S. Paulo newspaper.
>> Negotiations for the sale of the mining activity of the steel mill Usiminas fought, according to the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, citing sources close to the topic. Discussions were interrupted last week, a few days after the breakup of Vale's dam at Córrego do Feijão in Brumadinho (MG).
The sale of Mineração Usiminas (Musa), valued at approximately $ 1 billion One of the priorities of the mining company is to reduce its heavy debt, amounting to 5.9 billion rubles, among Potential stakeholders, including ArcelorMittal and Ferrous, acquired by Vale at the end of last year. The bank was receiving the proposals. Expectations were to finish negotiations in July. The Sumitomo Group, which acquired its stake in Musa in 2010, has a pre-emption right on the acquisition of the badet, but has not shown any interest in the company.
Klabin achieved a net profit of R $ 913 million in the fourth quarter of 2018, reversing a loss of R $ 83 million for the same period in 2017. The net business turnover increased by 21% on the same basis, rising from R $ 2,298 billion to R $ 2,785 billion, under the effect of the increase in sales volume and the best scenario Adjusted EBITDA (result before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) increased by 33% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period in 2017, while the EBITDA margin (EBITDA / net income) increased by 4 percentage points.
percentage points to 41%.
At the end of December, the ratio of net debt to EBITDA was 3.1 times, a decrease of 0.3 times compared to the end of the third quarter of 2018.
>> According to Valor, Odebrecht, a majority company Braskem already admitted internally that, in order to sell the petrochemical product to the Dutch company LyondellBasell, he will have to receive part of the cash payment and probably a larger share than that indicated during the discussions. Odebrecht would prefer to receive all of its shares in the European company listed on the New York Stock Exchange and estimates it holds about 10% of the company resulting from the union.
>> On the radar of recommendations Gafisa (GFSA3) saw the recommendation reduced to "underperformance" by BB Investimentos, while Tenda (TEND3) was downgraded to a market performance by the same bank. Ultrapar (UGPA3) has been downgraded to "neutral" by Safra, with a price target of $ 61.
(with Bloomberg, Agência Estado and Agência Brasil)
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