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SÃO PAULO – The international markets are facing a bad mood in the face of downward revisions to the growth estimates of the International Monetary Fund. In the domestic market, investors follow Jair Bolsonaro's debut at the Davos Economic Forum and await the latest news on pension reform.
Bolsonaro will occupy a prominent place in Davos. He will be the first Latin American president to speak at the opening session of the World Economic Forum at 12:30 pm, and his speech will be a kind of presentation of the President to the elite of international finance and finance. the international press. The opening session is usually accompanied by special attention because it sets the tone for the event.
The Davos Forum will be the first big opportunity for Bolsonaro and his team to get closer to foreign investors, who remain In this sense, the Davos forum is seen as a unique opportunity for the new Brazilian leader to convince him of his ability to deliver what he promised the market, as a strong program of reforms that highlights well-being.
See what to watch this Tuesday (22):
1. Global Equity
Asian stock markets have eased worries about the global economic outlook. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward its global growth forecasts in the face of the economic slowdown, which intensified in the second half of last year in countries such as Germany and Italy, where Financial conditions are tight on all continents and between the two. an environment of trade disputes between the United States and China.
The institution now estimates that global GDP will grow by 3.5% this year, while in October, growth was estimated at 3.7%. By 2020, IMF forecasts for this indicator had risen from 3.7% to 3.6%.
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The IMF also said that China's economic activity "may not meet expectations, especially in case of tension." Open an account at XP – it's free!
Worries about global growth are also having a negative impact on European stock markets and future US stock indexes, which are coming back from a public holiday that suggests a downward slide. Commodities are also feeling the recession and oil and iron ore prices are down more than 1%.
Check the market performance, according to the rating of 7:58 GMT:
* S & P 500 Futuro) -0.59%
* Dow Jones Futuro (United States) -0.55%
* Nasdaq Futuro (United States) -0.76%
* DAX (Germany) + 0.02%
] * FTSE (United Kingdom) -0.32%
* CAC -40 (France) -0.13%
* FTSE MIB (Italy) -0.37%
* Hang Seng) -0.77% (closed)
* WTI Oil -1, 19% , at 53.16 US dollars per barrel
* Crude oil at -1.26%, at 61.88 US dollars per barrel
* Bitcoins 3 3515 – 0.31% US
13 531 $ RU * Future contracts for iron ore traded on the Chinese stock exchange in Dalian -1.31%, to 526.00 yuan (in the last 24 hours)
2. Davos and pension reform
As the market looks forward to Jair Bolsonaro's speech in Davos, incumbent President Hamilton Mourão said the pension reform project should only be introduced by the government when it is expected that the pension reform will be completed. after the elections in the House. of the Senate. He also denied that the case involving the elected Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of Jair Bolsonaro, hindered the negotiation of the proposal to the National Congress.
According to the newspaper Valor Econômico, the economic team of Bolsonaro wants to increase the contribution of civil servants to social security 11% to 14%. The discussions in the technical field also include the increase of charges for the inactive. There is still no final decision on this, especially as the President in recent months has clearly opposed this idea.
Still under review, confirmed yesterday Hamilton Mourão, changes to the military pension plan. The application of a pension tax levied by widows of the army and the increase in the length of active service, from 30 to 35 years, are under study. Mourão's statements do not clearly indicate whether the amendments would already be included in the text that will be sent to the National Congress in February or if it would happen later.
Still about the gap in social security, the federal government will increase the power of strike of the INSS to identify who should stimulate the economy that will be achieved with the interim measure (MP) published last week to combat these irregularities, said Leonardo Rolim, Social Security Secretary Leonardo Rolim, to Estadão / Broadcast.
This text allows the INSS to have access to the Federal Revenue, SUS and FGTS databases, and the crossing of this information will reveal other advantages with signs of irregularities going beyond of the 3 million already visible by the economic team and which will be transmitted. a fine and extended comb.
3. Economic Agenda
The domestic agenda is emptied on Tuesday (22). In the United States, investors will pay attention to the disclosure of home resales in December at 13h (Brasilia). The median estimate by Bloomberg indicates a resale of 5.24 million euros against 5.32 million the previous year.
Click here to view the full program of indicators.
4. The Federal Supreme Court (STF) overturned the decision of Minister Luiz Fux, who ordered the referral to a lower court of a case in which the Brazilian Free Movement (MBL) was asking Senator Renan Calheiros (MDB- [19659004] In the request to the STF, MBL alleges that Renan Calheiros responds to at least nine investigations into alleged cases of corruption, which is why his candidacy would violate the principles of public morality enshrined in the Constitution. stated that it would be up to the hearing to decide who would be a candidate.
5. Business Information
>> The Federal Government appointed Professor Nivio Ziviani a member of the Board of Directors. administration of Petrobras The company has received the communication from its majority shareholder and the indication will now follow the internal procedures of corporate governance, including the compliance and integrity badyzes required for the state succession process.
According to Petrobras, Ziviani holds a degree in mechanical engineering from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), a master's degree in computer science from the PUC-RJ and from & # [[[[[aPhDinComputerSciencefromtheUniversityofWaterlooCanadaThecompany'sratingindicatesthattheteacherisanexpertininformationtechnologyandthatheis"anoutstandingacademicandentrepreneur"
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>> Tim provided for the payment of interest on the principal of an amount of R $ 380 million, originally scheduled for January 28 for the 24th. gross per share is R $ 0.156997806.
>> The total sales of Carrefour increased by 14, 9% to 10.7 billion reais in the fourth quarter. Comparable store sales revenue grew 7.4%, the largest quarterly increase since the first quarter of 2017. The annual target of 20 new stores has been achieved. Six new stores and two wholesalers were opened in the last quarter of 2018. The opening pace of the new stores will be maintained in 2019.
(with Agência Estado and Agência Brasil)
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