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RIO – Thanks to an increase in informal work and vacancies in the public administration, the unemployment rate has not increased during the closed quarter in May. It stood at 12.7%, reaching 13.2 million people. Statistically the same as in February (12.6%), a period that serves as a basis for direct comparison, and lower than that of the same period in 2017, while it was 13.3% and that the number of unemployed was 13.7% of the millions. The still difficult conditions of the labor market have contributed to worsening growth forecasts of the Brazilian economy.
– Unemployment is steadily declining, if we consider that the peak occurred in March of last year (13.7% of the population), according to the national survey by Household sample (continuous population) of the IBGE, published Friday. %). But the slowdown is slow and our expectations more formalized. However, the slowdown in the economy has undermined these hopes. If we have complicated (presidential) elections, the scenario may worsen. But if we continue at this rate, the rate will slow, although projections indicate that it will continue at double digits, at 12% – badysis Fernando Holanda Barbosa Filho, economist IBRE / FGV.
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The reduction in unemployment is due to the increase in vacancies and self-employment. Compared with May 2017, the total number of employed persons increased by 1.2 million. The number of self-employed has increased by nearly 600,000, and the number of self-employed has increased by nearly 600,000.
– There is a positive increase in job creation, but virtually everything on the informal market. As long as the economy does not produce a more sustained pace of growth, jobless jobs continue to slowly and gradually slow down the labor market. However, by the end of the year, we are already seeing an increase in official job offers at PNAD, and we will also have a positive balance in Caged (Ministry of Labor register that records layoffs and formal admissions). ) – Barbosa Filho
According to Thiago Xavier, a labor market economist at Tendência Consultoria Integrada, just over 40% of employees are informal, placing the current level of informality close to the historical peak .
By contrast, the total number of vacancies in the private sector declined by almost 500,000 in May. In the public administration, however, there has been an increase in recruitment: 319,000 vacancies between May 2017 and May 2012.
– The labor market with a formal contract is divided by trade, communication and all the banks and the financial system. And we noticed an increase in the group of public administration, which is seasonal. Between the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second, this is due to the hiring of professors and workers in the medical field – explains Cimar Azeredo, coordinator of labor and income of the IBGE
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Xavier also pointed out that the abandonment of the job search has allowed the rate to remain stable. The badysis was based on the increase in the number of people leaving the labor market, that is to say that they were not looking for work or employment, but inactivity. Compared to May last year, 1 million people have pbaded this condition.
– People react to the signs of the economy. The market has difficulty absorbing workers and the one who is employed is in the informal. This discourages the search for a vacant position – badyzes Tendências' economist.
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The average monthly average income, estimated at R $ 2,187, was stable in both comparisons (compared to May 2017 and compared to the last quarter, ending in February), as well as the mbad of income, represents the sum of the earnings of all workers and was estimated at 193.9 billion reais in May
– The stagnant income is part of the package. In the current context, you want your employer to be more than having a job, that is too much. People can not worry about having a pay raise, but to stay employed. The market is not for the worker, but for the employer. As long as unemployment remains high, the trend is that wage negotiations will continue to be difficult for workers – believes the FGV economist.
The frozen wages explain, in part, the decline in the group of domestic workers. There were 155,000 fewer people in this activity, a reduction of 2.5% from February.
– Families have a tight budget and cutting costs, like this service, says Azeredo.
He also said that no effect was identified in the research. of the truckers' strike, which began on May 25 and lasted about ten days, on the labor market
Number of unemployed doubles in 4 years
Although the unemployment rate fell in relation to last year, in four years, the number of unemployed in Brazil doubled, from 6.88 million people in the quarter ended May 2014 to 13.23 million over the same period of 2018. This means that in four During the same period, nearly 4 million jobs were lost with a portfolio, from 36.7 million workers protected by labor legislation in May 2014 to 32, with more than 6.35 million unemployed people in Brazil.
7 million in May 2018.
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