[ad_1]
SÃO PAULO – The Brazilian market ends the fourth session without net offers of currency exchange with a slight decline in the dollar. After a period of high volatility, the Brazilian market is already operating in the same direction as other emerging markets despite the absence of new interventions.
The commercial dollar closed down 0.43% to 3.8777 reais after reaching a low of 3.33434 billion reais (-0.02%). Despite the adjustment, it is possible to verify that the dollar has fallen from the level of R $ 3.70 that prevailed while the Central Bank was intensifying its operation with an exchange of currencies. Between June 8th and the end of last week, $ 29.5 billion was sold on these derivatives, which had a dollar selling effect on the futures market.
"The real still seems to need adjustment (depreciation) recent heavy interventions," say experts at Icatu Vanguarda. The wait is the continuity of the interventions, but in smaller quantity than what had been done during the last month. "The way to intervene should be more erratic, for the sole purpose of ensuring liquidity and avoiding the irrationality of the market," they add.
Earlier, Ilan Goldfajn, president of the municipality, pointed out that there was no problem. achieved by foreign exchange swap transactions, which are equivalent to selling dollars in the futures market. The total stock today is $ 67 billion, well below the record $ 115 billion in 2015. Ilan also recalled that British Columbia could do line auctions and that this was done this week.
The Brazilian currency remains vulnerable to a new external shock, despite signs of accommodation, according to Gustavo Rangel, chief economist for Latin America. An aggravating risk appetite risks exerting sufficient pressure on the real, which would require additional Central Bank intervention in the exchange.
million. Rangel stresses that local and external risks are important. "But we have a quieter combination of externality and a gradual increase in domestic risk, with a gradual pricing of political / fiscal risk," he says. "If the external worsens, it will have nothing to help the market, other than the intervention."
Along with the net bids, British Columbia avoided the drop in inventories and made the full rollover – completed Thursday – $ 8.76 billion in contracts that would expire in July. It is expected that the strategy will be maintained for the next batch of August, which stands at 14.023 billion US dollars.
In June, the real depreciated by nearly 3%, ranking tenth among the major currencies globally. The loss, however, is not very different from other peers, such as the Chilean peso and the Australian dollar.
"This shows that the market is starting to operate more normally and is opening the space to the price, with more clarity, the other Brazilian badets," says Luiz Eduardo Portella, partner and manager of Modal Asset "We have not had a net offer of exchange for four days and there is no distortion … it seems that the $ 40 billion (swap since the mid-March) have met most short-term coverage needs. "19659002] This does not mean that the exchange is free of new moguls once the election dispute approaches. political uncertainty is already weighing on the markets, which produces little more positive results than their peers abroad.However, it is from the end of July that the polls of opinion should become the main catalysts of badet balancing.
"For the moment, the population still looking at the World Cup, polls do not bring as much information
The Ibope survey, published by the CNI, showed a sharp increase in blank votes and void in relation to the dispute in some scenarios, the percentage is up to four times greater than four years ago. "The voter is disappointed," says Renato da Fonseca, executive director of research and competitiveness of the CNI.
[ad_2]
Source link
