The dollar increases by 2% to 3.87 reais even with BC



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Among the leading emerging countries, the real had the second worst performance against the dollar today, losing only with the currency of South Africa

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June 27, 2018

Dollar notes - 13/02/2018

The dollar has reached a higher level since June 7 (Jose Luis Gonzalez / Reuters)

O central bank tried to hold the dollar this Wednesday, 27, but failed. Even during the Brazilian game in the Russian Cup, the currency has renewed several high, to close at 3.8737 reais (+ 1.99%), the highest since June 7.

Among the major emerging countries, the real had the second worst performance against the dollar today, losing only with the currency of South Africa. Stock market experts cite, among the main factors to explain the rise in the US currency today, the negative effects scenario, the exit of foreign resources from Brazil and the action of speculators swaps.

BC did two online auction, which is selling the dollar in the spot market with buyout commitments, placing a total of $ 2.425 billion in the market. The director of a European bank points out that the fact that the dollar is already rising abroad – due to the normalization of US monetary policy and trade tensions between Washington and other countries – is already a factor sufficient to maintain the pressure under pressure. To make matters worse, he adds that Brazil has great uncertainty with the presidential election, without signaling clearly that a reformist candidate will win, which opens up space for speculative movements and the flight of foreign capital .

Central Bank data on the exchange rate released today confirm the outflow of external capital through the financial flow (which includes stock market and fixed income applications). Between June 18th and 22nd, R $ 766 million was withdrawn in net amounts. Traders began to notice the withdrawal of funds in the middle of last week, when coupons exchange rates (dollar interest) began to rise. For some market professionals, it is this move that brought British Columbia to offer the line, which it had not done since March. The end of this month is the closing of both quarter and semester, which increases the demand for dollars in the spot market for foreign resource transfers by companies.

For the former Central Bank president and partner of Tendência Consultoria Integrada, Gustavo Loyola, the performance of the monetary authority in the exchange rate is correct. "What is important for the central bank is to irrigate liquidity in the foreign exchange market, but without generating too much predictability," he says. "The intervention on the foreign exchange market must always leave some risk to those who have positions, whether they are bought or sold," he said. "The performance of the Central Bank has been, in general, correct."

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