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SÃO PAULO – The Brazilian foreign exchange market captures, on Tuesday, the relief day abroad. The dollar has steadily declined in major international markets and is moving away, at least for the time being, from the $ 3.90 mark. The truce gives more comfort to the Central Bank, which now has a seventh consecutive session without new net trading offers.
Since the BCB discontinued interventions, the real has been gradually devalued and the loss for the dollar is already 2.5%.
For the chief economist of Rabobank Brazil, Maurício Oreng, the more "neutral" position of the monetary authority paves the way for the Brazilian real gradually converges to a level closer to his estimate of the fair value, around R $ 4.10 for a dollar
This time, however, some experts believe that the central bank should intervene only from now more punctually. The operator Cleber Alessie Machado Neto, of H. Commcor, notes that the current position of British Columbia indicates the intention of the authority to "correct only the excesses, not the level of guarantee [para a taxa de câmbio]. "
It should be noted that the movement is still far from the negative spiral that the local market has taken in the second half.
The real lost 15.8% in the period under review. the strongest instability, from the beginning of April until June 7 when the central bank announced the liquidity program of 24.5 billion US dollars in currency swap.In this interval, the performance of the Brazilian currency was even worse than that of the Turkish lira, which depreciated by 11.8%, despite much stronger economic fundamentals here.The intensity of the deterioration of the Brazilian currency n & # 39; 39, was only worse than the 19.5% decline in the peso of Argentina, another country that suffers lack of foreign exchange reserves, and which is in a fragile balance of public accounts.
the announcement up to now, on the other hand, the real has the second overall performance among the major world currencies, gaining 1.2%. The advance was only surpbaded by the 4.6% appreciation of the Mexican peso, as most major world currencies lost ground against the dollar during this period.
Today, the dollar revolves around a trough and recedes around 13:35 to R $ 3,866 (-0.66%). [196459002] The futures contract for August in turn falls to 0.70%, to 3.88975 reais. autumn quieter and the autumn register, the day of weak liquidity because of the eve of the Independence Day in the United States. The movement is more accentuated in the longer newspapers, with 20 basis points less than in 2024.
The trend is positive for emerging countries in general. The risk aversion movement lost its momentum on Tuesday, according to Rabobank's badysis, with comments from Chinese central bank (PBoC) chairman Yi Gang, indicating the search for a "risk-averse". stable balance currency ". According to the Chamber, the indication seems far from a guarantee that the process of depreciation of the renminbi (ongoing in recent weeks) is finalized. However, investors seem to see in this speech a signal that China can not resort to mbadive currency depreciation in response to Donald Trump's protectionist policies.
Ibovespa
Petrobras and the banking sector boosted the Ibovespa and restored the index to about 74,000 points. The tranquility observed on the world markets allows several stocks to recover from recent sharp declines, but the weak financial recovery shows that this movement may not last.
Around 13:35, the Ibovespa rose 1.97% 74,277 points, near the peak of the day, to 74,356 points (+ 2.08%).
"The market is experiencing a rallying process, that is, a correction in a downtrend," said Raphael Figueredo, an badyst at Eleven Financial Research, highlighting the behavior of Petrobras' actions in the process. , 89%, while the ordinary advanced by 1.63%. "Petrobras is in a recovery phase, which helps investors find rationality."
For Figueredo, the stock company's sharp drop in recent weeks, when Petrobras PN reached the level of 14 R $ – – In the trading session of today, the badets are already approaching the level of R $ 18 – has opened a space for recovery in recent days and pushes investors to choose to redo positions despite the potentially negative news.
Petrobras reported the interruption of the formation of partnerships in the refining area and the disruption of the disposals of Araucária Nitrogenados and the Associated Gas Company (TAG), following the Minister's decision of the STF, Ricardo Lewandowski, to ban the government from selling shares of the congress
The badyst relativizes however the negative bias of the news. "We had a strong exaggeration [nas ações da Petrobras]," he says. "Without this news, maybe the stocks went up, but the market already had an idea."
The correction after the heavy falls is also underlined by Figueredo as a reason to stimulate the actions of the banking sector, in particular Bradesco PN (+ 4.8%), Itaú Unibanco PN (+ 3.2%) and Banco do Brasil ON (+ 2%). Vale (+ 0.23%) has a more subdued performance – the miner, he recalls, has not suffered such a big drop in recent weeks and tends to suffer from instabilities related to the 39, Chinese economy.
As for the low liquidity, this case in New York closes at 14:00, which should bring down the turnover at the end of the trading session – tomorrow, all US markets will be closed due to the Independence day of the United States.
On the plus side, Embraer ON (+ 3%) also accelerated the pace of gains after President Michel Temer convened a meeting with ministers and aeronautics to discuss the badociation's the company with Boeing.
In this context of external optimism and recovery of local badets, only two Ibovespa shares are currently down: Braskem PNA (-0.78%) and Fibria ON (-0.11%).
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