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(Ricardo Stuckert / Lula Institute)
SÃO PAULO – A meeting between the leaders of PP, DEM, PRB, Solidarity, PSC and PR is scheduled for next Thursday (5), which can set the direction that the party bloc can follow in the presidential election . As the journal O Globo notes, despite the official speech of the union, the risk of fragmentation increases.
There are currently discrepancies between the subtitles on the candidacy to support: Ciro Gomes (PDT), Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB) or Álvaro Dias (Podemos). On the public relations side, even an alliance with MP Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) is evaluated. Together, the six legends have 174 MPs and election funding of over $ 650 million and nearly a third of the free election propaganda in the national prison.
See also: The next elected president may face a ghost of dismissal from 2020
The course is not clear, however, especially with the high level of undefinition of the race for the presidency. One of the consequences of this situation is the decision of the parties to delay the implementation of party agreements, with a deadline set by the Electoral Tribunal between July 20 and August 5.
"This year, we have the schedule of agreements delayed 2014. This moment, when we were used to see the parties decide who they would go to or which candidature they would support, was postponed to the end of July or beginning of August", noted the political scientist Paulo Gama of XP Investimentos in the last program Brasília Connection .
"The block is not united and the parties are not united internally, it is possible to have a coalition for the time of the television, but there is no cohesion in support "he explained One of the most clbadic examples of internal divisions lies in the MDB itself, a party of which Henrique Meirelles is the pre-candidate at the moment. According to the expert, the former finance minister already knows that he can not count on the support of senators Renan Calheiros (AL), Eunício Oliveira (CE) and Jader Barbalho (PA) [19659005] "What we can know is that [interesse] it's better that they continue to bargain together, to see if they can get a more advantageous position to the company." In advance, they go hand in hand.If they realize that there are insurmountable differences, I see no difficulty in breaking them.this block and that everyone goes to one side. "
Nobody wants to wander and support an application that is defeated in the process. And in this difficult decision-making process, time also counts: whoever hits the hammer first has a better chance of seeing the best positions in the coalition formed. According to João Villaverde, senior badyst at Medley Global Advisors, at the last Brasilia Connection, unlike the previous elections, there is today an extremely high level of uncertainty, which makes it difficult to choose parties.
Looks like 1989. Imagine politicians, most of whom will stay at the National Convention, they keep asking, "Who am I going to talk to next year?" Nobody wants to be wrong. "In the opinion of the experts, the construction of alliances continues to be relevant to the performance of the parties," he said. a candidate for a presidential race, despite the weight that new technologies have conquered in recent years. "When Ciro Gomes talks to DEM and PP, he does not expect, like these two parties, that his typical voters vote for him if the alliance is closed, but why this conversation happens- According to the IBGE, there are 60 million people who do not have access to internet .C is a very high percentage that will only know the candidate of 31 August, date on which the EPP, PP, PTB, Solidarity, etc., are the main factors of success of the campaign,
For him, the game of the alliance remains relevant and the president who does not is not able to participate in this system runs increasing risks of impeachment, especially after the first year in power (learn more by clicking here)
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Calendar of the conventions
The scenario indefinitely led parties to postpone the definition of candidacies or alliances.
In a report published Tuesday, the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo recalls that the scenario that is taking shape today It is distinct from that of the 2014 election, when six parties convened their conventions as early as the first week of the legislated period: BMD, PSDB, PV, PSC, PSTU and PRTB. The atomization of postulants and the low score in the polls would be partly the justification for a more vague picture.
"These next few weeks will be the time when the parties will have meetings of their leaders, when they will deliberate.The trend is that we have this for the last week of July or the first week of August. Everyone is trying to push the maximum forward.It is possible to try to sit at the window, but the right plan, "notes Gama.
As Villaverde points out, there is also a marketing strategy behind the choice of dates for conventions. "It's good to remember that not only is it a legal obligation, but that the parties are forced to make a convention, but it's also a very special moment of the campaign, since the World Cup will be completed and the exhibition will be complete. for example, in the evening, all information programs will give Ciro Gomes candidate for the presidency of the Republic.He will have a great exposure.It will be the same with the PSDB Geraldo Alckmin, and so on. , much exposure they need, so be early [da agenda conventions] or at the end is very interesting, they do it too, even from a point of view marketing. "
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