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SÃO PAULO – The generalized bad mood on the international markets contaminates the Brazilian stock market and the Ibovespa Futuro is operational in the autumn on Tuesday (22). Pessimism is due to downward revisions to IMF estimates of growth in economies (International Monetary Fund).
In this context, at 9:42 (GMT), the future Ibovespa lost 0.86%, to reach 95,720 points. The dollar futures maturing in February 2019 were up 0.23% to R $ 3,764 and the trading dollar was R $ 3.16, up 0.11%.
In the AD market, the futures contract maturing in January 2021 went from 7.34% to 7.31% and the contract for January 2023 went from 8.44% to 8.40%.
In the domestic market, investors follow Jair Bolsonaro's debut at the Davos Economic Forum and look forward to updates on pension reform.
Bolsonaro will occupy a prominent place in Davos. He will be the first Latin American president to speak at the opening session of the World Economic Forum at 12:30 pm, and his speech will be a kind of presentation of the President to the elite of international finance and finance. the international press. The opening session is usually accompanied by special attention because it sets the tone for the event.
The Davos Forum will be the first big opportunity for Bolsonaro and his team to get closer to foreign investors, who still show a dose of skepticism for embarking once in Brazil. Protect your money Invest in the best advice in Brazil: open an account on XP – it's free!
In this sense, the Davos forum is seen as a unique opportunity to convince the new Brazilian leader of the ability to deliver what he has promised to the market, as a robust reform program that aims to priority is foresight.
The Ibovespa Futuro is a good thermometer indicating the course of the session but does not always accurately predict the movements of the purse to the opening bell.
Global Stock Exchanges
Asian stock markets collapsed over the global economic outlook. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downward its global growth forecasts in the face of the economic slowdown, which intensified in the second half of last year in countries such as Germany and Italy, where Financial conditions are tight on all continents and between the two. an environment of trade disputes between the United States and China.
The institution now estimates that global GDP will grow by 3.5% this year, while in October, growth was estimated at 3.7%. By 2020, the IMF's forecast for the indicator had risen from 3.7% to 3.6%.
The IMF also said that China's economic activity "may be below expectations, especially if trade tensions do not decline." Christine Lagarde pointed out in Davos that the global economy is growing more slowly than expected and that risks are increasing.
Concerns about global growth also have a negative impact on European stock markets. British Prime Minister Theresa May has announced Plan B for Brexit, which will be put to Parliament on Jan. 29.
The futures index of the United States comes back from a public holiday suggesting a decrease in opening. A partial shutdown of Donald Trump's government, which reaches its 32nd day without moving in the direction of an agreement, follows.
Product Reform
While the market is pleased with Jair Bolsonaro's speech in Davos, President Hamilton Mourão, in his exercise, argued that the welfare reform proposal should not be tabled by the government. after the elections to the House and Senate. He also denied that the case involving the elected Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, son of Jair Bolsonaro, hindered the negotiation of the proposal to the National Congress.
According to the newspaper Valor Econômico, the economic team of Bolsonaro wants to increase the contribution of civil servants to social security 11% to 14%. The discussions in the technical field also include the increase of charges for the inactive. There is still no final decision on this, especially as the President in recent months has clearly opposed this idea.
Still under review, confirmed yesterday Hamilton Mourão, changes to the military pension plan. The application of a pension tax levied by widows of the army and the increase in the length of active service, from 30 to 35 years, are under study. Mourão's statements do not clearly indicate whether the amendments would already be included in the text that will be sent to the National Congress in February or if it would happen later.
Still about the gap in social security, the federal government will increase the power of strike of the INSS to identify who should stimulate the economy that will be achieved with the interim measure (MP) published last week to combat these irregularities, said Leonardo Rolim, Social Security Secretary Leonardo Rolim, to Estadão / Broadcast.
This text allows the INSS to have access to the Federal Revenue, SUS and FGTS databases, and the crossing of this information will reveal other advantages with signs of irregularities going beyond of the 3 million already visible by the economic team and which will be transmitted. a large fine comb.
Political News
The STF (Federal Supreme Court) quashed the decision of Minister Luiz Fux who determined (MBL) request that Senator Renan Calheiros (MDB-AL) be prevented from reporting to the presidency of the Senate.
In a request to the STF, the MBL alleges that Renan Calheiros is responding to the STF with at least nine investigations into alleged cases of corruption, which is why his candidacy would violate the principles of public morals provided by the Constitution. In a Twitter message, the senator said he would return to the hearing to decide who would be a candidate.
Company Information
>> The Federal Government appointed Professor Nivio Ziviani a member of the Board of Directors of Petrobras . The company has received communication from its majority shareholder and the indication will now follow internal corporate governance procedures, including the compliance and integrity badyzes required for the state succession process.
According to Petrobras, Ziviani holds a degree in mechanical engineering from the Federal University of Minas Gerais (UFMG), a master's degree in computer science from the PUC-RJ and from & # [[[[[aPhDinComputerSciencefromtheUniversityofWaterlooCanadaThecompany'sratingindicatesthattheprofessorisaninformationtechnologyspecialistandthatheis"anotedacademicandentrepreneur" Protect Your Money Invest Tim provided for the payment of interest on equity of an amount of R $ 380 million, originally scheduled for January 28 for 24. The gross value per share is R $ 0.156997806.
>> The total sales of Carrefour increased by 14, 9% to 10.7 billion reais in the fourth quarter. Comparable store sales revenue grew 7.4%, the largest quarterly increase since the first quarter of 2017. The annual target of 20 new stores has been achieved. Six new stores and two wholesalers were opened in the last three months of 2018.
"Although sales at the same Atacadão stores exceeded our expectations, we believe that the level was already high, especially after Assaí, its main competitor., according to the newspaper O Estado de S. Paulo, the Minister of Economy, Paulo Guedes, launched Tuesday in Davos an agenda with a meeting to unlock the attempt to by Braskem and Dutchman LyondellBasell In December, Bloomberg announced that LyondellBasell was considering bidding for the company this year, but that she had already intended to talk to the new government According to sources close to the record
>> BRF e JBS : According to Reuters, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has accepted a proposal submitted by exporters of Brazilian chicken meat with the aim of ending an anti-dumping dispute. Claudia Marques, partner of the MPA Trade Law office, which represents Brazilian exporters, told the news agency that China's decision to accept the offer had been communicated to the parties by the Ministry of Commerce
The agreement, which would set minimum prices for sales to China in exchange for the close of a dumping investigation opened in August 2017, will take effect on February 18, a she declared, marking the end of the formal proceedings relating to the case. 19659004] >> According to Broad's column, Estadão, Caixa Econômica Federal is in a hurry to sell its stake in Banco Pan (ex-Panamericano), but has not yet decided on the format. Paths are to be offered to a strategic partner or to launch a (subsequent) share offer once the institution has opened up capital.
>> Magazine Luiza and B2W : Amazon launches on Tuesday a series of novelties for the Brazilian market. From now on, 11 categories of products will be sold and delivered by the company (in the model called 1P or direct sale), including 4 not published in the country: Toys, Babies, Beauty and Personal Care. Since last year, this expansion was expected in the Brazilian market, but the company says that the timing of the launch is not related to the country's economic situation – only to the maturity of the company herself.
To date, the only category in which the company worked on the model "sold and delivered by Amazon" in Brazil which was that of books. The expansion places the retailer at another level in the domestic market and can be seen as a threat to consolidated brands such as B2W (whose stock dropped to 3.26% in the second, with rumors about novelty) and Magazine Suzano announced new catalog prices for deliveries of pulp to all regions (Asia, Europe and North America) ), with effect immediate. The price for Asia is $ 780 per ton, $ 1,010 in Europe and $ 1,210 in North America.
"We believe this announcement is positive, as (i) the new price announced for Asia is $ 30 per tonne higher than current FOEX prices for China (about $ 750 per tonne), and ii) strengthens the company's commitment to the long-term "value" strategy, since Suzano has chosen not to reduce its selling price in cash markets, "badysts said. 39 Itaú BBA They maintain the recommendation of outperformance for Suzano and Klabin and have a preference for the latter in the short term.
(With Agência Estado and Agência Brasil)
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