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RIO – Industrial production increased 0.2% in December from November and 1.1% in 2018, in the seasonally adjusted series, published Friday, the first Institute Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) . Despite the positive result, there was a loss of rhythm throughout the year.
For IBGE, the loss of power from this sector is due to the May drivers' strike in the elections, the crisis in Argentina and the high unemployment rate . Compared to December 2017, production decreased by 3.6%.
"Since June 2018, indicator industry growth accumulated in 12 months is less intense," said Andre Macedo, head of Industry Coordination. d & # 39; IBGE. "The year 2018, despite its close in the positive field, was characterized by a reduction in the intensity of growth, especially in the second half."
The industry had only two positive rates in the second half: 0.2% in December to November and 0.3% in October compared to September. The head of research believes that the drag on the industry is due to the drivers' strike, the uncertainties surrounding the presidential elections, the crisis in Argentina and the high unemployment rate.
"In addition to the truckers' strike, which disrupted the production process, elections were held, uncertainties affecting the entrepreneur's investment decisions and household consumption decisions. This directly affects exports and with that the labor market with a large contingent still outside of it.This is a set of factors that help us to understand why this production progresses to the second. semester at a less intense pace, "explained Macedo. .
The comparison by quarter shows the contraction of industrial production during the year: in the first quarter, growth was 2.8%; in the second, maximum of 1.8%; in the third, an increase of 1.2%; and in the last quarter of the year, the decline was 1.3%.
The reduction in the intensity of industrial production was also observed in the four main categories of uses, including the manufacture of consumer durables, which rose from a peak of 7 , 1% in the third quarter of 2018 to a decline of 3, 1% in the fourth quarter of 2018. The result is attributable to the decline in automotive production which went from 14.7% in the third quarter down 1.2% in the fourth quarter.
Compared to the same quarter of the previous year, capital goods increased from 7.3% in the third quarter to 3.4% in the fourth quarter; intermediate goods, from 0.7% to -1.4%; and semi-durable and unsustainable consumer goods, from -0.4% to -1.0%.
Loss of pace
The 1.1% expansion of Brazilian industrial production in 2018 compared to 2017 reveals the loss of pace of the sector last year, says the economist Lucas Silva from Tendências Consultoria. "This rate represents less than half of the movement verified in 2017," he said. In fact, the previous year, production had increased by 2.5% over the previous year.
On the 3.6% decline recorded in December 2018 compared to the same month last year, the economist claims that the result was expected and was subject to pressures from two main vectors: closure end-of-year orders and reduction. in certain productive segments, particularly in the automotive industry. "This is a sector that, with the food industry, lost much steam in the second half of the year," he said.
The production of capital goods, an important category for the badysis of the outlook for economic activity, is still weakened. "This is the sector that has lost most of its volume during the crisis years.This is a group that remains about 30% below its pre-2013 crisis level," he said. explained Silva. The category, which includes equipment, facilities, goods or services needed to produce other goods or services, decreased 5.6% in December compared with November.
The forecast for industrial activity in 2019 accelerates, said Silva. "On the national scene, we expect that reforms will be put in place, including social security reform, in 2019. It is an ambitious reform and that progress has been made in tax matters, the labor market can recover more strongly and the industry can benefit. "
In the external scenario, the economist said that, according to the consultant, trade tensions are mitigated and an interruption of the monetary tightening process in the United States, which could benefit emerging economies.
For former central bank director and Schwartsman and Associates consultant Alexander Schwartsman the government must be able to launch the concessions and carry out the necessary structural reforms (f, b, e, v, n, t, s) {if (f.fbq) returns; n = f.fbq = function () {n.callMethod? n.callMethod.apply (n, arguments): n.queue.push (arguments)}; if (! f._fbq) f._fbq = n; n.queue = 0; n.version = 2.0 & # 39 ;; n.queue = []; t = b.createElement (e); t.async =! 0; t.src = v; s = b.getElementsByTagName (e) [0]; s.parentNode.insertBefore (t, s)} (window, document, script, // connect.facebook.net/en_US/fbevents. fbq (& # 39; init & # 39; ;, & # 39; 1659995760901982 & # 39;); fbq (& quot; Track & # 39; PageView & # 39;);
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