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In an environment characterized by low inflation and still-weak activity, financial market economists expect to maintain the Selic (base rate) at the current level of 6.50% per annum until October 2019, when the Central Bank would start a new cycle of high interest rates.
According to the Focus Market Expectations report released today, Selic's projection is expected to rise from 6.50% to 6.75% in October.
Then, in December 2019, the rate would reach 7.13% per year – in practice, this percentage indicates a division of projections between 7.00% and 7.25%.
Until 2020, Selic reached 8%
. On Monday morning, the median forecast for the Selic rose from 7.25% to 7.13% per year. In practice, the percentage indicates that there is a division on a rate of 7.25% or 7%. The forecast for the Selic at the end of 2020 was 8%, as we saw four weeks ago. On 12 December, the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) announced the continuation, for the sixth time in a row, of the Selic rate at 6.5% per annum. At the same time, the recipient country indicated that the Selic tended to stay at the current level – the lowest level of history – at least during the first few months of Jair Bolsonaro's administration. (19659006) For the group of badysts consulted who were among the top 5 projections (median 5), the median of the base rate in 2019 followed in 6.50% per year, down 7% a month earlier. In 2020, it followed at 8% and in 2021, it remained at 8%. A month ago, they were 8% in both cases.
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