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Population revision of IBGE projects to 2060 an average wait of
76.4 years for men (today 74.1 years) and 82.9 years for men.
women (today 78.1)
According to the study, the main feature of these units of the federation is the negative net migration. The IBGE projections in 2018 were different from those made in previous years by the Institute. According to Flávio Queiroz, representative of IBGE's regional headquarters in the RN, the discrepancy in the data is mainly due to the high rates of under-reporting of births in several parts of the country.
"We had a very large number of births that were not recorded, or recorded only a long time later, which directly affected the projections made by the Institute. the records, which allowed us to review what was projected in the past, "explains Flávio.
The figures also reflect fertility rates.There are currently 1.77 children per woman. average number is expected to reach 1.66 The highest rates are in Roraima (1.95), Pará, Amapá, Maranhão, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul (all with 1.8) .The miners should be in the District The average age at which women have children today is 27.2 years, a figure that could reach 28 , 8 years in 2060. In Rio Grande do Norte, the rate which was 2.45 in the 2000s, is of 1.65, this year, and between 2022 and 2060 should stabilize at 1.64.
According to the survey, the country's population will continue to grow until 2047, when it is expected to reach 233.2 million people. In the following years, it will gradually decrease to 228.3 million by the year 2060.
The estimate of the reduction of the Brazilian population, however, does not cover all the states of the country. In the states of Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Santa Catarina, Amapá, Roraima and Acre, there is no reduction in the volume of the population. 39; horizon. Other states, such as Espírito Santo and the Federal District, are still expected to wait a few years to see a reduction in their population volumes.
Despite the estimate of the population reduction, however, the life expectancy of Brazilians is expected to increase. Santa Catarina, which is now the state with the highest life expectancy at birth in the country (79.7 years) is expected to maintain its leadership, reaching 84.5 years in 2060. nationwide, in 2060, the life expectancy of Brazilians at birth is expected to reach 81 years. The RN, in this projection, is below the national average, with an average expectation of 79.6 years.
"The population will begin to age, we will have a lower fertility rate and a large number of older people, which will require a series of measures in terms of planning for the country," says Flávio Queiroz. percentage of the population aged 65 and over in the country will reach 25.5% of the total.At present, in 2018, the number is equal to about 9.2%.
Despite the overall increase in longevity in the country, however, there are still more women than men in terms of longer life expectancy. "There is still a lot of resistance from men, especially with regard to medical care and Healthcare. It's a direct relationship with these numbers, "says Flavio
. Men currently have 8 years less difference compared to women in terms of life expectancy at birth in Rio Grande do Norte. The male expectancy is 72.6 years, while the female expectancy is 80.6 years. By 2060, the average wait for the RN is expected to reach 79.6. For women, the expectation will be 82.9 years, while for men, the projection will not even reach 77 years, reaching 76.4 years, as happens in the rest of the country . The next review in relation to life expectancy at birth, as well as the infant mortality rate for the country, are expected by 2022, after the completion of the 2020 population census, according to the report. IBGE.
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