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Tensions related to migration in Germany caused a serious political crisis, almost three years after Angela Merkel's decision to receive thousands of asylum seekers. The confrontation began in mid-June when Interior Minister Horst Seehofer, who also chairs the party of the Bavarian Christian Social Union (CSU), Chancellor Angela Merkel blocked her hardening project of asylum policy
The Chancellor openly rejects the measure of her prime minister: the expulsion of the German borders from any migrant registered in advance by another country of the Union European. The conflict quickly became a crucial issue that threatens the coalition formed with great difficulty in March of this year and which united the right wing of the CSU, the Chancellor's Right Wing (CDU) and the Social -démocrates.
The Minister did not want to surrender to his boss and even challenged him, giving an ultimatum to the Chancellor: the imposition of his measures at the border by ministerial decree in early July, unless
In turn, the Chancellor continues to oppose any form of unilateral expulsion to the borders of her country, fearing a "domino effect" across Europe that would threaten [19659005] Merkel also negotiated last week a European political agreement and bilateral agreements, the effect of which is "more than equivalent" to the measures that Seehofer wants.
Sunday, the minister rejected the results of these meetings with other countries of the European bloc and put the fate of the German government on the table
Migrants are the only reason for the conflict?
The conflict is much deeper. The Bavarian Conservatives and even some of Merkel's own party leaders seem to be adjusting their political accounts to the Chancellor. In fact, Seehofer and his party have stopped denouncing Merkel's decision to open the country's doors to hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers in 2015.
In addition to the Migration issue, CSU has long considered Merkel 13 years in power, moved the conservative wing to the center.
In turn, the German left sees the struggle within the conservative party as "a right-wing coup". Several German media also see in this conflict a German version of "trumpism" (of US President Donald Trump) because the CSU, which defends a "German premiere" on migrants, is encouraged by the proximity of regional elections in Bavaria [19659011] In this region, research indicates that UHC could lose its absolute majority because of the progress of the far right because of its anti-immigrant rhetoric.
Finally, the question of the implementation of expulsions at the border is largely symbolic. Migrant arrivals are in free fall. In Europe in general and in Germany in particular, reception policies have been tightened and the fight against illegal immigration reinforced
What are the possible scenarios?
Seehofer proposed his resignation Sunday night, but suspended decision to allow a final negotiating session with Merkel Monday afternoon
The Interior Minister described three scenarios: she could join the ranks, or override Merkel's objections and impose expulsions at the borders, resulting in his resignation and possible dissolution of the coalition government. The third possible option would be a waiver. He mentioned that in a period of "three days" he would announce his decision.
In turn, the Chancellor can not yield to Seehofer, otherwise it will be the Social Democrats who will attack the government. the government may collapse with the release of CSU, Merkel could try a minority government or form a majority with other partners, or opt for early elections.
Nor does it exclude the Chancellor's exit from power.
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