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The last phase of the plan developed by Juan Guaidó, acting president, on the way to free elections in Venezuela is more of a marathon than a 100-meter race. He himself estimated that it will take 6 to 12 months to bring it to fruition, but experts say that it should not be limited to the time limits to allow the holding of elections clean. "We arrived at this situation because the last ones were bad and in a hurry," said Luis Lander, director of Venezuela's Electoral Observatory, a non-profit organization that oversees electoral processes. According to Lander, the first thing to do is to restructure the National Electoral Council (CNE) and electoral justice bodies, which are subject to the intervention of the Supreme Court and the Office of the Comptroller – a kind of Court of Auditors – powers completely related to Maduro. The members of the CNE were chosen in irregular procedures and their decisions proved to be partial. Therefore, according to the specialist, they must be replaced. "Electoral justice, expressed in judgments of various hierarchies, has revealed unacceptable biases," he said.
In addition, "the control of persons with disabilities politically by administrative convictions, which constitutes a violation of the Constitution". In this way, the opposition political parties and their most powerful leaders, such as Henrique Capriles and Leopoldo López, were left out.
Although the renewal of these positions falls under the National Assembly (Parliament), where the opposition is in the majority, the last three years have been constantly blocked by the Supreme Court, controlled by Maduro. In fact, the regime started a political race in 2017 when it needed to appoint new magistrates and jurists chosen by lawmakers found themselves in exile. Guaranteed elections "is that there is another transitional and broad-based government, as well as a new CNE allowing for free, fair and competitive elections," he said. "Otherwise, it will be unachievable." Maduro showed that he was not prepared to play clean, that the elections would only be useful to him if he could control the outcome. there are uncertainties are fraudulent elections.For an appeal, Maduro can not be in power, "he said.
Calling elections is another key element, Lander said. "The day of the convocation, the electoral calendar must also be made public.All tasks must be fulfilled until the day of the vote, postulations, audits [12 básicas estabelecidas pela lei] election of the members of the bureau, badysis of the registration and implementation of national and international observation, "he says. "All this needs at least six months to be done.In the elections that took place in the region last year, the shortest time was nine months," said the expert. And he warns: "The haste deteriorates the quality of the process, especially with regard to elections that can help resolve tensions, so that the vast majority, not just the opposition and Chavism, the recognize. "
This deterioration occurred. , according to Lander, during the last presidential election in which the current crisis began. It was on May 20, 2018 anticipated and covered irregularities since the very convening, held by an organ without jurisdiction for this, the Constituent Assembly, created by Maduro to replace the functions of l & # 39; National Assembly (the Parliament, by majority)
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In these elections, several opposition parties were excluded, the rate of abstention was high and the result was disputed by the opponents Maduro (Henri Falcón and Javier Bertucci) for breach of the guarantee agreements. According to a tradition dating back to 1947, the presidential elections in Venezuela take place in December, but there are four exceptions, all of which occurred during Chavismo: in July 2000, for the renewal of the powers required by the new constitution; in October 2012, for the convalescence of Hugo Chavez; in April 2013, following the death of the leader of the Bolivarian Revolution, and in May 2018, convened by Maduro to try to end the political crisis and avoid the polls in December, in the context of the collapse and discontent of the population for more than a million% of inflation by the end of 2018.
After the presidential elections, the governor and the mayor came: all the processes were put in place and anticipated, such as the bill proposed by Maduro, which was to take place at the end of 2020, but that for Chavismo would be used to remove the stone in the shoe which means the control of Parliament on the part of the company. ;opposition. "Democracy needs time," said Lander.
Electoral registration is another key aspect of any presidential election to which the Venezuelan conflict should give rise. It is necessary to incorporate more than two million Venezuelans who are 18 years since the last census update and almost three million who emigrated during those years and who are legally entitled to vote in elections. "Today, consular seats are insufficient to meet this demand from voters outside Venezuela, it would be a problem to solve," said Lander.
A qualified national and international observation is fundamental, said the expert. "In 2006, the European Union organized an excellent international observation, the best ever done in Venezuela: a permanent mission of several months monitoring the process at all stages, as the weakness of international observers is usually that". they do not know the context. "The contact group created by the European Union may well be the beginning.
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