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The General Consumer Price Index 15 (IPCA-15), which is a snapshot of official inflation in the country, points to a -0.16% deflation in December, a said Friday (21) Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
Since last July, the IPCA-15 has not recorded any deflation – this month was -0.18%.
Monthly variation of the IPCA-15
in%
Source: IBGE
In addition, this was the lowest rate for the month of December since the beginning of the year. Actual plan in 1994.
In November, the IPCA-15 index was 0.19%, but the final index was -0.21%. , the second deflation of the year.
According to the IBGE, of the nine groups of products and services studied, four exhibited deflation from November to December:
- Transportation: -0.93%
- Health and Human Care: -0.58% The food and beverage group (0.35%), which had the biggest positive impact on the index sector of the month. The remaining groups ranged from 0.02% of education to 0.44% of household items.
With December's deflation, accumulated inflation in 12 months was 3.86%, below the central bank's target of 4.5% in 2018. [19659012] Cumulative inflation
In According to the IBGE, the 0.93% drop in the transport group was the one that had the greatest impact (-
Source: IBGE and Central Bank / Note : the targets for 2003 and 2004 were changed during the year [018pp)intheindexofDecemberThisdecreasemainlyresultedfromthedropingasolinepriceswhichwasreducedinthemiddleof547%inthecountry
All areas of research of the institute showed a decline fuel prices. The highest were recorded in Salvador (-8.90%) and Fortaleza (-3.02%).
In addition to gasoline, the highlighted IBGE, ethanol and diesel also fell in December (-3.00% and -1.93%, respectively).
In the opposite sector, still in the transport group, plane tickets increased by 29.61%, with the highest individual impact being positive in December's IPCA-15 (0.11 pp). ).
The Housing Group also had a significant impact on the December deflation, which decreased by 0.52% during the month, mainly due to the change from the yellow tariff to the green electricity bill.
Food prices decelerate
The food and beverage group, which holds the highest weight in the composition of inflation, has maintained but slowed down, returning from 0.53% in November to 0.35% in December.
According to IBGE, this deceleration is mainly due to the fact that household food, which rose 0.85% in November, increased to 0.22% in December.
Among the main decreases in food prices are:
- Long-life milk: -10.39%
- Rice: -0.84%
- Cbadava flour: -2.47%
- Garlic: -3.38%
In contrast, the largest increases were recorded:
- Onion: 34.16%
- Potato: 17.80%
- Tomato: 8.37% 19659009] Meat: 0.92%
Of the 11 regions surveyed by the IBGE, only Belém recorded an increase in inflation in December. All others experienced deflation, the most intense in Brasilia and the weakest in Fortaleza.
- Brasilia: -0.30% [BeloHorizonte:-025% ] El Salvador: -0.15% Among the regions studied, only the metropolitan area of Belém recorded an increase of 0 , 27%, driven by the prices of the cities of São Paulo and São Paulo. airways (31.12%), tomatoes (27.06%) and açaí (12.86%). The largest decline (-0.30%) was recorded in Brasilia, due to lower prices for gasoline (-8.75%) and personal hygiene items (-5 , 08%).
Target for inflation and interest rate
Analysts' inflation forecasts in 2018 fell to 3.71%, according to the Central Bank's latest Focus survey. The percentage discounted by the market remains below the inflation target that the Central Bank is to continue this year, ie 4.5% and within the tolerance range established by the system. This objective has been achieved by the Central Bank if Consumer (IPCA) is between 3% and 6%.
Analysts' expectations are in line with the federal government's estimate, which announced Thursday (20) a 4.1% to 3.7% revision of the inflation forecast in 2018, plus 4 , 5%, but still within the tolerance range.
The inflation target is set by the National Monetary Council (NMC). To do this, the Central Bank raises or lowers the basic interest rate of the economy (Selic), currently set at 6.5% per annum.
The market expects the basic interest rate, currently set at 6.5%, to be low at the British Columbia meeting in December, which will be directed next year by Roberto Campos Neto, a government-appointed government. Bolsonaro instead of Ilan Goldfajn.
In 2017, the country's official inflation was 2.95%, closing for the first time under the floor of the target set by the government, which was 3%.
Financial Education: Understanding the Inflation Targeting System
Financial Education: Understanding the IPCA-15 Inflation Targeting System, Prices were collected from November 13 to December 12, 2018 (reference) and compared to those in force from 12 October to 12 November 2018 (base), income between 1 and 40 years and covers the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro, Porto Alegre, Belo Horizonte, Recife, São Paulo, Belém, Fortaleza, Salvador and Curitiba, as well as Brasilia and Goiânia., The difference is at the time of price collection and geographical coverage.
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