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The year began with the prospect of advancing the privatization and concession program in the country, in the context of the change of federal and state governments, a better macroeconomic scenario and a already structured projects inherited from previous administrations. A study of G1 shows that at least 229 projects are underway in Brazil today. And the number is expected to increase as the Bolsonaro government team and the new governors promised to increase the number of state-owned or sliced subsidiaries that would be offered for sale, as well as land and public buildings.
- Bolsonaro inherits 69 Temer PPI projects and wants to expand privatization
Fiscal crisis and deteriorating public accounts have led to privatization of public services and utilities airports, highways, railways and ports in the region political and economic agenda of the country. In January of last year, the G1 privatization map identified 238 projects announced by the federal, state and municipal governments.
Although the issue of privatization is already in the government's plans, the transfer of badets and projects to the private sector has been slow over the last year due to the uncertainties of the electoral race, difficulties in preparing technical studies and modeling. as well as political obstacles and legal conflicts.
In one year, only 12% of privatization and concession projects are exhausted. Of the 238 privatization projects listed by the G1 in January of last year, only 28 were completed (3 partially) through an auction, which was the only one of its kind. a sale of control or acquisition of equity or liquidation of the state.
On the other hand, 26 new projects were added to the list of projects in progress and 7 of the initial list were excluded by government decision or lack of economic viability. As a result, there are currently at least 229 projects underway: 69 from the federal government, 103 from 14 states and DF, and 57 from the prefectures of 8 capitals.
The list includes plans to sell companies or public goods, but also concessions, PPPs (public-private partnerships), leases, extensions of contracts, among others arrangements for transfer of control or management to private initiative.
The balance of 2019 does not include the 5th cycle of pre-salt and 2 auctions of energy transmission lines. The projects were completed last year by the federal government, but they were announced and included in the Investment Partnership Program (IPP) as a result of the publication of the 2018 survey. from G1 .
What came out and what was included in the list
Among the main projects completed were the privatization of the 6 Eletrobras distributors, the oil and gas auctions, the concession of the integration road south and sections of the national highway. Minas Gerais, metro lines 5 and 7 of the São Paulo monorail, and sale of the Slice industrial complex and the port of Pecém, in Ceará.
On the other hand, the privatization of state-owned companies, such as Eletrobras, Cedae (Estadual Companhia de Águas and Esgotas do Rio de Janeiro) and Companhia Estadual de Energia Elétrica (CEEE / RS) , the sale of the Anhembi complex (SP), Arena Castelão (CE), Pantbad Arena (MT) and a series of motorways, railways, ports and airports promised since the beginning of last year.
Among the 26 new projects entered in this year's privatization card, the Sabesp privatization plan announced by the new government of the State of São Paulo, the concession of the Porto Alegre bus station, the North District of the VLT Federal Government, sale of Cemig's properties and participation of Minas Gerais in oil and gas consortia, as well as projects of federal railways and port terminals.
According to the survey G1 the planned investments will rise to more than R $ 127.4 billion over the next few years, for only 87 projects accompanied by a enlightened estimate of governments. Of this total, 113.6 billion rubles come from federal projects, $ 9.6 billion from states and $ 4.2 billion from municipal projects.
However, taking these projects on paper depends not only on political decisions, but also on the ability to develop technical studies and structure modeling to ensure the interest of investors. On average, privatization projects typically take between one and a half years and at least two years to reach the signature phase.
To be auctioned, projects must first go through a series of stages including public hearings, a court of account badysis and, depending on the badets, legislative approval and a change of law. In other words, if, throughout the process, the court took no action to request changes or simply to prevent the tender.
"In the case of privatization, the difficulties are greater than in the PPP concessions, because of the need sometimes to update the legislation," says Fernando Vernalha, infrastructure specialist and partner at VGP Advogados .
Obstacles and difficulties
Of the 229 projects in progress, 154 are still not completed and 28 of them are suspended or awaiting authorization from the courts, legislation or the Court of Auditors to be able to continue.
In Rio Grande do Sul, for example, the sale of state energy and gas companies – CRM, CEEE and Sulgás – was stalled due to deadlock in the legislature. The same thing happened with Cedae, in Rio de Janeiro, whose privatization runs up against the very resistance of the elected governor, Wilson Witzel (PSC).
Already in the city of São Paulo, the edicts published last year had to be redone for errors or to clarify certain points after an interrogation. Among the suspended projects are the Pacaembu stadium and the public lighting PPP, whose final contract, signed with the winner of the dispute, was annulled by the court after a suspicion of fraud.
"The challenge of training public officials is not new and it will certainly remain, at least for the next few years, among the priorities of administrations," said Guilherme Naves, partner of Radar PPP, a company control of commercial activities. between governments and private initiative. "Alignment with control bodies and the legislature remains one of the most decisive factors for projects to become contracts or not."
Although most of the projects are still in the initial phase, about 50 of them are already in an advanced stage, pending the auction or publication of the project. 39, notice to the public. According to the survey G1 32 have an auction scheduled for the first quarter or should be completed by the end of March.
Map of Soldiers The 32 projects expected to be out of paper by the end of March are expected to guarantee investments of more than R $ 7 billion for the coming years, in addition to a collection of more than 4 billion rand for the federal government.
According to Adalberto Vasconcelos, Special Secretary of the Investment Partnership Program (IPP) Secretariat, Adalberto Vasconcelos, Special Secretary of the Investment Partnership Program Secretariat, is expected to complete 25 projects inherited from the Temer government. in charge of continuing the projects.
12 airports: Bloco Nordeste (Recife, Maceió, Aracaju, João Pessoa, Campina Grande and Juazeiro do Norte), Bloco Sudeste (Vitória and Macaé) and (19659003) Lotex (scratch card),
The most anticipated auction is scheduled for March. The dispute over the 12 airports Infraero is scheduled for March 15. As of March 28, the auction of the North-South Railways will be one of the major agricultural production sales projects announced since the Dilma Rousseff government. If it comes out of paper, it will be the industry's first bid in 11 years.
In an interview with G1 the PPI official stated that railroad and highway concessions would be the priorities for 2019. At present, out of 69 Current projects in the federal program portfolio, 12 are railways and 8 are highways.
For highways, the most advanced projects for the year are BR-364-365 / MG-GO and BR-101 / SC. And the government has already announced its intention to include the Rio-Santos highway (section of the BR-101) during the auction with relicitation Nova Dutra (Rio-São Paulo).
Cautious market optimism
According to the market, 2019 should be better than 2018 for concessions and privatizations. In addition to reducing political uncertainties, macroeconomic conditions are also more favorable, with lower interest rates and lower inflation. The badysts heard by G1 point out, however, that we must not forget the political difficulties of withdrawing many of these projects on paper.
"The government is still in its infancy, the new Congress is not working yet and the test will be done in March," says economist Tereza Fernandez of MB Associados, citing expectations regarding the progress of reforms. at the congress.
"2019 is a year of transition during which agents are cautiously optimistic, in the hope that reforms will progress," says economist Cláudio Frischtak, partner of 39, Inter.B Consultoria.
The Inter.B Survey estimates that the volume of investment in infrastructure in the country amounted to 117.8 billion rubles in 2018, or only 1.7% of GDP (gross domestic product) . In 2015, the index remained above 2%. By 2019, the consulting firm expects a low nominal investment of R $ 118.3 billion, but forecasts a further decline in GDP as a percentage, at a rate of 1.6%.
According to Frischtak, even if the expectation of a momentum in the concession and privatization agenda is confirmed, a more significant increase in the volume of private investment in infrastructure will only be observed From 2020 and will remain limited by the limited budgetary space allocated to public investments. .
"Given the fragility of the public accounts, public investment will remain moderate (at best), as even privatizations that could unlock investments in sectors such as energy and sanitation will take some time, "he said. 19659058] Federal Government demands sale of Cedae as loan guarantee to Rio de Janeiro – Photo: Foto: Divulgação / Cedae "title =" Cedae sale required as loan guarantee in Rio de Janeiro – Photo: photo: Press release / Cedae "src =" data: image / jpeg; base64, / 9j / 4AAQSkZJRgABAQAAAQABAAD / 2wBDAAMCAgMCAgMDAwMEAwMEBQgFBQQEBQoHBwYIDAoMDAsKCwsNDhIQDQ4RDgsLEBYQERMUFRUVDA8XGBYUGBIUFRT / 2wBDAQMEBAUEBQkFBQkUDQsNFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBQUFBT / wgARCAARABkDASIAAhEBAxEB / 8QAGQAAAgMBAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAYBBQcE / 8QAFQEBAQAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAABQT / 2gAMAwEAAhADEAAAAZs8oYridpV2bOq5afiARhlpwPW // 8QAHxAAAgICAQUAAAAAAAAAAAAA BAUAAwECFBMiMTM0 / 9oACAEBAAEFAhXFotIrq51N7M8fsjAOy7QHJCsZ3v01vPIjjxX68 / LP / 8QAHhEAAgIABwAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAQIABAMFEBETIjL / 2gAIAQMBAT8Bw6DFOkt5bYLjjXcaV / E // 8QAHxEAAQMDBQAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAECAwQFIhESITJB / 9oACAECAQE / AZLlGkmS8FNcafbm7RRvhN3U / 8QAKRAAAQMDAQUJAAAAAAAAAAAAAQACAwQREiETMTJRkRAUNEFhcoGh8P / aAAgBAQAGPwKWbEd1jNnHko5qaa0OXCNMT6rKW2R6LhWzgke4GxF2FoJ5KmpmU8JIkN3yNOo Dv3qQwDbvZiRHfVeDk + + // kz95oe5dOz EACEQAAEDBAEFAAAAAAAAAAAAAAEAESEQMVFx8EFhgZHx / 9oACAEBAAE / IYmmIFhhyRkqKBZJqOuzCjFlcByXFlE3fLQkEvYLruqnghwODC2ELJ5MBZ58r66c2lPvUf / aAAwDAQACAAMAAAAQsNcf / 8QAGxEBAAEFAQAAAAAAAAAA AAAAATEAEBEhQZH / 2gAIAQMBAT8QOBcmO6x5TJpJ1PZSmWx 8QAHREAAgEEAwAAAAAAAAAAAAAAARExACFBcRCxwf // / + 8D aAAgBAgEBPxA6UzVr97oA5CC4xiob / xAAjEAEAAgECBQUAAAAAAAAAAAABABEhMVEQQZGh8GFxgbHB / 9oACAEBAAE
"It is important to recognize that people have not given a blank check to anyone, and recent research has also revealed a flagrant lack of public reluctance on the subject, which means that dialogue and communication quality on these projects remain as one of the big potential obstacles, "says Naves.
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See the States having projects in progress in the domains state and municipal:
- Alagoas: 2 States
- Bahia: 1 State and 2 municipalities
- Ceará: 13 States
- Federal District: Mato Grosso: 5 states
- Mato Grosso do Sul: 3 States
- State of Minas Gerais: 11 States
- State of Espírito Santo: 4 States
- State of Espírito Santo: 4 States
- State of Piauí: Rio Grande do Sul: 7 States and 14 municipalities
- Rio de Janeiro: 1 State and 4 municipalities
- Rondônia: 7 municipalities
- Rio Grande do Norte: 5 States [19659034] [1] [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [5] [5] [5] [5] Prado (CE), Mateus Rodrigues (DF), Luiza Marcondes and Viviane Machado (ES ), Paula Resende (GO), Raqu (Brazil), Freitas (MG), Pollyana Araújo and André Souza (MT), Anderson Viegas (MS), Andreia Xavier (PB) , Maria Romero, Lorena Linhares, José Marcelo and Lucas Marreiros (PI), Daniel Silveira and Igor Jácome (RN), Carolina Cattaneo, Janaína Lopes and Tatiana Lopes (RS), Jonatas Boni, Pedro Bentes (RO), Emily Costa (RR) ), Mariana de Ávila (SC), Gabriela Gonçalves and Tahiane Stochero 19659083]
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